VanEck Predicts US States to Acquire $23.5 Billion in Bitcoin

The adoption of state-level strategic bitcoin reserve (SBR) bills could generate additional demand for digital gold amounting to 242,787 BTC ($23.5 billion), according to calculations by VanEck.

We analyzed 20 state-level Bitcoin reserve bills.
If enacted, they could drive $23 billion in buying, or 247k BTC.
This sum is independent of any pension fund allocations, likely to rise if legislators move forward. pic.twitter.com/5AZnkiwTZf

— matthew sigel, recovering CFA (@matthew_sigel) February 12, 2025

The analysis included documents from 20 states.

According to Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets at VanEck, the figure does not account for potential pension fund investments. He is confident it will increase as the initiative progresses.

this $23b number is potentially conservative, given the lack of details (many of these states are “n/a” with size unknown).

— matthew sigel, recovering CFA (@matthew_sigel) February 12, 2025

“[$23 billion] is potentially conservative, given the lack of details (many of these states are “n/a” with size unknown),” Sigel explained.

In January, Donald Trump, fulfilling campaign promises, announced the formation of a task force on digital assets led by special advisor on AI and cryptocurrencies David Sacks.

One of the group’s tasks is to assess the prospects for implementing SBR. In a recent interview, the official confirmed they are “studying” the issue.

The largest publicly traded miner by market capitalization, MARA Holdings, has joined efforts to lobby for the creation of bitcoin reserves at the federal level and in all 50 states.

According to Satoshi Action Fund CEO Dennis Porter, Utah could become the first US state to approve an SBR bill.

In December, VanEck estimated that the launch of a strategic bitcoin reserve could help the US reduce its national debt by 35% by 2050. They believe digital gold will rise to $42.3 million by 2049, demonstrating a CAGR of 25%.

MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor estimated the impact of SBR for the US at $81 trillion.

According to Sygnum’s calculations, purchasing the first cryptocurrency for a national bitcoin reserve of $1 billion would lead to a $20 billion increase in the asset’s market capitalization.

Previously, analyst Thomas Farrer predicted a $50,000 rise in digital gold prices per minute when US authorities confirm the creation of an SBR.