“We do not expect an 80% crash”: CoinEx’s chief analyst on the $180,000 call, BTCFi and the future of altcoins

CoinEx’s Jeff Ko on a $180k bitcoin call, BTCFi and altcoins

In its annual report, CoinEx Research—the exchange’s research arm—sets a base-case projection of bitcoin at $180,000 by end-2026.

In March, ForkLog spoke with CoinEx chief analyst Jeff Ko. We discussed whether that forecast still holds, the conditions for it to play out, why the halving cycle is breaking, and where the industry is heading.

On the forecast and the halving

ForkLog: CoinEx’s base case is bitcoin at $180,000 by the end of 2026. It trades around $70,000 today. What conditions need to align for the call to materialise?

Jeff Ko: $180,000 is a probability-weighted scenario, not a guarantee. We maintain the forecast based on the macro backdrop, the supply cycle and the build-out of institutional infrastructure. But we follow data, not a narrative.

The main driver of bitcoin’s path is the global liquidity cycle. For the base case to play out, the Fed needs to shift to sustained easing—not one or two cuts, but a clear policy turn. Historically, when real rates fall and the dollar weakens, capital rotates into risk and “hard” assets, creating a favourable environment for bitcoin.

In parallel, regulatory clarity must cease to be a structural drag. Markets dislike uncertainty more than bad news. If the Clarity Act is passed in the US, it would be a meaningful step toward a workable federal framework for digital assets. Combined with regulatory progress in Europe and key Asian markets, this would open the way to broader institutional participation—asset managers, corporates and treasurers.

ForkLog: Under what scenario would you formally revisit the target?

Jeff Ko: If the Fed returns to aggressive tightening—for example, inflation re-accelerates above 4–5% and rate cuts are delayed until mid-2026—the macro foundation of our forecast weakens, and we would likely revise the target.

It is also likely that US economic policy will increasingly be shaped by the pairing of [a candidate for Fed chair] Kevin Warsh as the monetary lodestar and [the US Treasury Secretary] Scott Bessent as the executor of fiscal strategy. Both, in our view, are intellectual followers of Stanley Druckenmiller, the founder of Duquesne Capital. As that policy evolves, we will track its impact on liquidity, rates and risk assets.

ForkLog: CoinEx Research argues the four-year halving cycle is being “broken” under institutional pressure. Yet the current drawdown—about 47% from the October ATH —visually echoes classic bear phases of past cycles. What convinces you this is a structural break rather than the same pattern with new participants?

Jeff Ko: In previous cycles bitcoin fell closer to 80%. In our report we said we do not expect such a collapse this cycle. A 47% correction is painful, but broadly within our expectations.

The most important structural change is that spot ETFs have created a durable, non-cyclical layer of demand. In past cycles there was no regulated institutional mechanism of this scale, operating continuously. What matters is not only ETF assets under management or headlines about inflows, but how those flows behave in periods of stress.

Previously, sell-offs were dominated by retail capitulation—cascading liquidations without a meaningful institutional counterbid. Today we still see net inflows into ETFs, indicating persistent institutional demand absorbing selling pressure.

At the same time, derivatives play a different role. They used to amplify volatility. Today market structure has changed: if you look at the composition of open interest on the CME in bitcoin futures, the picture is different. In 2020–2021 CME positions were formed mainly by trend-following traders and hedge funds with directional bets. Now a notable share belongs to arbitrageurs earning the spread between spot and futures. They do not care about market direction, so they panic less on declines—and stabilise volatility rather than magnify it.

Volatility is compressing notably earlier than in previous cycles. We read this as a sign of market maturity, deeper liquidity and a broader holder base.

We are also tracking bitcoin’s 90-day rolling correlation with the Nasdaq. The relationship is unstable: during crypto-specific events bitcoin moves on its own, and during global macro shocks it syncs with equities. This confirms bitcoin has moved beyond a simple halving cycle. Its price is now driven by a combination of three factors: global liquidity, institutional flows and crypto-native events.

On altcoins and listing strategy

ForkLog: In December 2025 Cointelegraph quoted you as saying liquidity will be “ruthlessly selective—it will flow only to “blue chips” with real utility.” At the same time CoinEx is betting on broad altcoin support. How do you reconcile a research thesis that effectively cautions against wide alt trading with the exchange’s business model?

Jeff Ko: I do not see a contradiction that needs resolving. The research thesis is about expected dispersion of returns. We did not expect a broad, indiscriminate altseason and expected liquidity to concentrate in “blue chips” with real utility. That is a market forecast, not an instruction on what assets CoinEx should or should not offer.

An exchange serves a different function. Its job is to give users access to a wide spectrum of assets, liquidity and trading tools. Our stance is simple: research shows where we see the best risk-reward, and the platform provides tools so users can act at their own discretion.

A broad listing is not the same as a recommendation. Supporting many altcoins does not mean we endorse them as long-term investments. Crypto is an open market with heterogeneous demand: some users seek long-term exposure, others short-term trading opportunities, others access to specific ecosystems, and others want to enter projects at an early stage.

On new CoinEx products

ForkLog: In 2025 CoinEx launched three products for distinct audiences: CoinEx Vault, CoinEx OnChain and CoinEx Pay. What links them strategically? Which of the three is the priority growth vector?

Jeff Ko: The strategic link between Vault, OnChain and Pay lies in our product philosophy: we build solutions around real user needs, not hype. Since the platform is built around crypto trading, each new product addresses trading needs, aids decision-making and simplifies transaction management.

We do not view these three products as a separate “second curve of growth”. They are targeted tools for current spot and futures traders.

Vault and Pay are value-added services within the ecosystem. Vault provides institutional clients with secure non-custodial storage for treasury management. Pay enables seamless real-world crypto settlements.

Of the three, OnChain is closest to the core business—trading. It lets users buy and sell niche tokens and early-stage projects directly in the CoinEx interface without waiting for an official spot listing.

Our main growth vector is continuous optimisation of the trading experience. Vault, OnChain and Pay are the infrastructural pillars that support and extend that mission.

ForkLog: CoinEx OnChain enables trading DEX tokens without a separate wallet. Meanwhile the DEX/CEX ratio has risen from 6% in 2021 to 21.2% in 2025—users are increasingly comfortable with decentralised exchanges. Is OnChain a transitional product that will fade as DEX UX improves, or do CEXs have a long-term on-chain niche?

Jeff Ko: OnChain is not a temporary fix. The product gives users access to decentralised liquidity without sacrificing the convenience of a centralised exchange.

We see DEXs’ share of trading rising and view it as a signal that centralised exchanges must evolve. A CEX can no longer be the only place a user trades. Its role is to become a convenient entry point to on-chain markets that abstracts complexity and provides protection.

Centralised exchanges have a long-term role within the on-chain ecosystem, but it is changing. Previously CEXs won on custody convenience, onboarding and fiat ramps. Now they will retain their position by solving for aggregation, compliance, execution convenience and user protection.

Even if DEX interfaces become much easier, many users will not want to store seed phrases, manually bridge assets across networks, confirm each transaction and grapple with gas fees. CoinEx OnChain exists for them.

ForkLog: CoinEx Vault is entering institutional custody, a market dominated by Fireblocks, BitGo and Copper, as well as solutions from Coinbase and other exchanges. What specific advantage does Vault have over competitors?

Jeff Ko: An important clarification: we are not trying to take share from specialist custodians such as BitGo or Coinbase. Vault is a solution for our users who need reliable asset storage within the CoinEx ecosystem.

For them, Vault’s key advantage is the balance of physical security and zero deployment cost. Unlike traditional institutional custody, where clients hand over control of private keys, CoinEx Vault is a non-custodial solution with full user control.

We use a “triple distrust framework”: the mobile app, web interface and server are physically and logically isolated from each other, eliminating single points of failure. Vault lets teams turn offline smartphones into cold wallets—without spending on proprietary hardware. The result is low-cost, secure storage where users retain full control of their keys.

On BTCFi

ForkLog: At Hack Seasons in February 2025 you noted that most PoW chains lack smart contracts, limiting DeFi’s growth. Given ViaBTC’s mining roots, is CoinEx ready to become a hub for BTCFi products? What do you think about the viability of this ecosystem?

Jeff Ko: Directionally, yes—but execution matters more than branding. ViaBTC’s roots give CoinEx a natural advantage: deeper relationships with bitcoin users, miners and long-term BTC holders than many altcoin-focused exchanges.

To become a BTCFi hub, it is not enough to list BTCFi tokens. CoinEx has to be the access point to BTCFi exposure. Most users do not want to deal with wallet fragmentation, bridges, the nuances of UTXOs, the specifics of L2s or smart-contract risks directly. A centralised exchange adds value by simplifying discovery, trading, education and capital rotation into BTCFi products.

The key is that CoinEx must bring risk filtering. A credible BTCFi hub helps users distinguish core bitcoin-adjacent infrastructure and quality yield venues from speculative “wrappers” or weak tokens that may not survive a full cycle.

The BTCFi segment is viable long term because it solves a real problem: bitcoin is the largest underutilised asset in crypto. A vast stock of BTC simply sits in wallets. If even a small portion moves into lending, collateral, yield strategies or stablecoin backing, that is a trillion-dollar market. But the “bitcoin comes to DeFi” narrative alone is not enough. The segment will endure only if it delivers real utility to bitcoin holders without forcing them to take excessive risk.

On mass adoption

ForkLog: At TOKEN2049 you said that Web3 needs “a better Facebook, Instagram or Visa” for mass adoption. After eight years in the industry—what is closest to such a killer app?

Jeff Ko: Over the past decade we have seen countless narratives and buzzwords. Some pushed technological progress; others inflated speculative bubbles. When it comes to a true killer app for mass adoption, two lines emerge beyond the noise.

The first is cross-border payments based on cryptocurrencies and stablecoins. It is a tangible solution to a real problem—frictions in traditional finance—and it has already achieved significant adoption. The second is DeFi protocols that use blockchain’s decentralised primitives: AMMs, next-generation liquidity pools, decentralised perpetuals. These are fundamental innovations that have rebuilt price discovery and liquidity.

On tokenising real assets

ForkLog: According to data from RWA.xyz, the volume of tokenised real-world assets on-chain reached $26bn at the start of 2026. Which RWA categories are overvalued and which are undervalued?

Jeff Ko: When assessing tokenisation, we first ask: is the tokenised asset genuinely easier to buy and sell than the original? That is why we are sceptical about tokenised venture capital and private equity.

The idea is elegant: make liquid what historically could not be sold quickly. But in practice the token wrapper changes little. Private equity returns depend on the manager’s work with portfolio companies, access to information and influence over decisions—not on whether a token is issued.

Tokenisation does not speed up capital returns or eliminate the early loss period typical of venture. And the promised secondary-market liquidity remains mostly on paper at current volumes—there are too few buyers for these tokens so far. In our view, this segment is overvalued.

Among undervalued categories are tokenised government bonds and short-term sovereign bills. This segment has already found its user. It is not ignored, but we think the market still underestimates how large it can become. Tokenised government bonds are a ready foundation for cash management, collateral and settlement on-chain. No other RWA category today combines as many advantages: clear legal status, predictable yield, institutional interest and ease of use.

Another promising direction is tokenised trade finance. This is a multi-trillion-dollar market that still moves slowly: paper-heavy processes, opaque counterparty risks, and small businesses struggle to access funding. Blockchain directly addresses these issues: documents cannot be backdated, payments trigger automatically under preset conditions, and the entire transaction history is transparent.

We also see long-term potential in tokenised lending to small and medium-sized businesses. Banks often turn down smaller firms: insufficient collateral, too much bureaucracy, and decisions hinge on personal relationships. Tokenisation can change this. Loans are pooled on-chain, borrower payment histories are visible, collateral is managed automatically, and reporting is available in real time. This opens access for both retail and institutional investors to a segment with potentially attractive returns.