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Whales prepare to sell as bitcoin volatility looms, analyst warns

Whales prepare to sell as bitcoin volatility looms, analyst warns

Amid bitcoin setting new highs, on-chain data point to rising activity among large holders on Binance, the CryptoQuant researcher known as Crazzyblock shared

“This may indicate strategic moves by seasoned participants and lead to increased market volatility,” he explained.

Large‑holder activity index on Binance. Data: CryptoQuant. 

Crazzyblock stressed that the large‑holder activity index on Binance jumped sharply after the recent price peak — the figures are “backed by substantial transfers rather than random fluctuations”.

He added that on 13 July alone whales deposited roughly 1,800 BTC to the largest crypto exchange:

“A detailed analysis of exchange inflows by value bands showed that transfers above $1m account for more than 35% of total bitcoin inflows. This points to deliberate actions by large players to place assets on the most liquid venue.”

No panic!

The researcher emphasised this does not signal capitulation by long‑term market participants:

“According to the metric showing exchange inflows by coin ‘age’ cohorts, the bulk of daily deposits are ‘young’ coins held for less than three months.”

Binance inflows by coin ‘age’. Data: CryptoQuant.

On the other hand, recent whale activity suggests “the return to market of more mature, strategically oriented capital”.

Why it matters

Crazzyblock considers activity on the leading crypto exchange an “important market signal”:

“Binance accounts for over 25% of global spot volume. The platform is a hub for professional derivatives traders. Coordinated moves by whales typically trigger a response across the broader market.”

Two scenarios

An influx of whale deposits implies two likely outcomes:

In both cases, increased seller activity on the leading venue raises the likelihood of sharp price swings, Crazzyblock warned. 

“Big players have already begun to act — their moves often precede material shifts in market conditions. Traders should avoid trading on emotion and resist FOMO,” the expert concluded.

The mystery whale

On 14 July, the unknown address ‘bc1qq…atjty’ transferred 20,000 BTC to a Galaxy Digital wallet. At the time of the transaction, the sum was about $2.34bn.

According to Nansen, the transfer was executed in seven transactions — each ranging from 500 BTC to 4,500 BTC. The last operation — for 3,160 BTC — was processed a few hours ago and brought the wallet’s balance to zero.

Transactions of the “mystery whale”. Data: Nansen. 

The analytics platform Onchain Lens determined that the sender address belongs to a bitcoin whale who recently moved more than 80,000 BTC after 14 years of dormancy.

“This marks the first withdrawal of digital gold ever,” the analysts stressed.

The movement of such a gigantic sum sparked lively debate about the owner’s identity or structure. According to Arkham, the transactions may have been tied to address updates. Coinbase’s Conor Grogan suggested the funds could belong to a single miner who started in 2011.

Taking profits via an institutional broker such as Galaxy Digital may be a reasonable move given bitcoin’s recent records, analysts at The Block suggested.

Earlier, CryptoQuant analysts, drawing on various metrics, noted the remaining potential for bitcoin to continue rising. 

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