Who Truly Profits from Wars?
Text version of the latest "Deconstruction."
This week, “Deconstruction” focuses on Hyperliquid’s record, Telegram’s reputation maneuvers, the crypto market’s preparation for future threats, and the main myth about investing during wartime.
Commodity Hype on DEX and Bhutan’s Price Pressure
Amid the Middle East conflict, the daily trading volume of the decentralized exchange Hyperliquid reached a record $5.4 billion. The secret to its success lies in the platform’s ability to allow traders to trade commodity derivatives around the clock with immense liquidity, bypassing traditional markets.
Meanwhile, an intriguing factor affecting Bitcoin’s price is Bhutan: the kingdom is selling off part of its significant reserves, which it secretly accumulated through mining using local hydroelectric resources.
The market continues to debate global trends. Expert Anthony Scaramucci is confident that the current decline is linked to the classic four-year cycle, anticipating a bullish phase in the fourth quarter. However, other analysts note that spot ETFs have already changed the rules of the game, smoothing volatility through the influx of institutional funds.
Amid these debates, only Strategy continues to aggressively accumulate Bitcoin, having increased its holdings to over 762,000 coins.
The Reputation Maneuver of Nomad Durov
Pavel Durov prepaid the debt on the 2021 convertible bonds, announcing the company’s profitability. This financial maneuver, for which new papers worth $1.7 billion were previously issued for restructuring, is distinctly reputational. The debt repayment allows Durov to claim he “owes nothing to anyone anymore,” countering rumors of dependency on investors allegedly linked to Russian authorities.
It also emerged that the messenger team, in collaboration with the creator of OpenClaw, is working on improving the internal agent—directly related to ensuring Telegram’s stability in case of blockages.
Pavel Durov himself, due to attacks on Dubai, temporarily relocated to Europe, despite an open criminal case in France and a higher crime rate.
Ethereum Against the Quantum Threat
The Ethereum Foundation has presented a roadmap to protect the network from quantum computers, which, according to some reports, could break modern cryptography within a few years.
The first updates will be included in the Higota update this year. The team plans to conduct four hard forks and complete the network restructuring by 2029. Experts cite Ethereum as an example, sharply criticizing the passivity of Bitcoin developers on this issue.
The seriousness of the problem is also confirmed by the corporate sector: Google has also planned a transition to new algorithms by 2029, intending to implement post-quantum protection of digital signatures in its cloud services and the new Android 17 operating system.
Debunking the Myth of War Profiteering
The popular investment advice “buy when there’s blood in the streets” has proven to be a myth in the context of real world wars. Historical analysis shows that during global upheavals, exchanges close, states default on obligations, and the investor’s task becomes not to multiply but to simply preserve capital.
The true beneficiaries of wars were not stock speculators, but neutral bankers and corporations working for state defense.
History shows that the winners in global conflicts were either neutral parties (Swiss banks) or contractors. In the Soviet system, where there were no private enterprises, enterprising individuals turned out to be mere fraudsters, ultimately facing execution or imprisonment.
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