Increasing attention to the threat of quantum computing is beginning to diminish the long-term appeal of the first cryptocurrency compared to gold, according to analyst Willy Woo.
12 YR TREND BROKEN.
BTC should be a valued a LOT HIGHER relative to gold.
Should be. IT’S NOT.
The valuation trend broke down once QUANTUM came into awareness.
Don’t read this post if you want to stay high on hopium instead of seeing things as they are. pic.twitter.com/Qa2YKDlRMp
— Willy Woo (@willywoo) February 16, 2026
According to him, markets are already pricing in the risk of a “Q Day” for Bitcoin.
About 4 million “lost” coins (25-30% of the total supply) could return to circulation if a quantum computer can derive private keys from public ones. This would undermine the asset’s key narrative of limited supply.
Woo estimated the probability of freezing these coins through a hard fork at about 25%. However, any outcome would provoke a deep divide between proponents of backward-compatible solutions and those willing to rewrite network rules to protect early balances, he believes.
“This prospect is already being factored into valuations as a structural discount to Bitcoin’s assessment compared to gold over the next 5-15 years,” the expert noted.
Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, agreed. He added that interest in Google searches for “quantum computing and Bitcoin” peaked simultaneously with the first cryptocurrency’s price high.
Google interest in “Quantum Computing Bitcoin” peaked when Bitcoin peaked. Evaluation of the risk was at a maxima when price was, resulting in derisking, a leading indicator to price falling. The Quantum threat drove Bitcoin down. The floor interest in quantum risk to Bitcoin is… pic.twitter.com/a7m3Ucq7wr
— Charles Edwards (@caprioleio) February 15, 2026
The expert named the quantum threat as one of the reasons for the current correction of digital gold.
Nick Carter, a partner at Castle Island Ventures, holds a similar view. Earlier, he stated that developers’ reluctance to acknowledge risks is already weighing on the flagship cryptocurrency’s price.
Conversely, analysts at Benchmark consider such fears exaggerated. Blockstream CEO Adam Back expects super-powerful computers to emerge only in 20-40 years, while _checkonchain creator James Check sees no connection between this threat and Bitcoin’s price.
Meanwhile, the industry has already begun preparing for the quantum era:
- The Ethereum Foundation formed a security group and allocated a $1 million research grant;
- Coinbase created an advisory board to assess risks and develop protection strategies;
- BTQ launched a threat-resistant Bitcoin testnet.
Back in February, Carter predicted a “corporate takeover” of the first cryptocurrency’s network due to quantum computing.