{"id":12260,"date":"2024-04-03T19:56:14","date_gmt":"2024-04-03T16:56:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/bitcoins-post-halving-performance-analysed-by-experts\/"},"modified":"2024-04-03T19:56:14","modified_gmt":"2024-04-03T16:56:14","slug":"bitcoins-post-halving-performance-analysed-by-experts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/bitcoins-post-halving-performance-analysed-by-experts\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin&#8217;s Post-Halving Performance Analysed by Experts"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The value of the leading cryptocurrency increased by an average of 3230% in the 12 months following a halving, according to estimates from CoinGecko.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">How has Bitcoin price performed after each halving?<\/p>\n<p>Our latest study shows that, on average, <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Bitcoin?src=hash&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Bitcoin<\/a> price returned 3,230% gains within one year after each halving event.<\/p>\n<p>Read the full study: <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/ZHcPyv3JDJ\">https:\/\/t.co\/ZHcPyv3JDJ<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/YZP8nT7od7\">pic.twitter.com\/YZP8nT7od7<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 CoinGecko (@coingecko) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/coingecko\/status\/1775221079142957435?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">April 2, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>The dynamics are as follows:<\/p>\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>After the first halving on November 28, 2012, the price of digital gold surged by 8858% over the next 12 months, rising from $12 to $1075. Inflation decreased from 25.75% to 12%.<\/li>\n<li>Following the second halving on July 9, 2016, prices increased from $650 to $2560, a 294% rise over the same period. Inflation rates fell from 8.7% to 4.1%.<\/li>\n<li>The third halving on May 11, 2020, led to a 540% increase in prices, from $8727 to $55,847. Inflation slowed from 3.7% to 1.8%.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>Analysts noted that the calculations indicate a decline in returns with each subsequent halving of miners&#8217; rewards. The more pronounced growth after the third halving compared to the second was attributed to a dramatic increase in the money supply due to the ultra-loose policy of the <span data-descr=\"Federal Reserve System of the USA\" class=\"old_tooltip\">Federal Reserve<\/span>.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Impact of Halving<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Experts highlighted that the halving of miners&#8217; rewards serves as a mechanism to curb inflation.<\/p>\n<p>Unlike fiat currencies, the rate of increase in the supply of digital gold is predictable, unchanging, and follows a downward trajectory with each halving.<\/p>\n<p>As the influx of new coins decreases, the price of existing ones becomes more attractive. With the increasing number of bitcoins in circulation, pricing becomes more efficient.\u00a0<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2-759.webp\" alt=\"2-759\" class=\"wp-image-229941\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Data: CoinGecko.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>To date, miners have extracted 19.6 million BTC out of 21 million BTC (93.3%) with an inflation rate of ~1.74%. According to experts, this suggests that the price of bitcoin will rise if demand exceeds the current supply increase rate of 1.74%.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>This will also hold true after the fourth halving (approximately April 20), if demand outpaces inflation, which will drop to less than 1%.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Market Dynamics<\/h2>\n<p>Analysts identified additional factors influencing the price of the leading cryptocurrency:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>sell order overhang;<\/li>\n<li>perception of bitcoin;<\/li>\n<li>global market liquidity;<\/li>\n<li>regulation;<\/li>\n<li>macroeconomic conditions;<\/li>\n<li>market events.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Seller Activity<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Ahead of the fourth halving, bitcoin reached a new all-time high <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/bitcoin-surpasses-72000-mark\">above $73,700<\/a>, driven by the excitement surrounding ETFs.<\/p>\n<p>Analysts provided data indicating that by March 25, ETF issuers had accumulated 4.2% of all mined coins.<\/p>\n<p>Experts suggested that miners might sell bitcoins due to rising mining costs. They also noted the threat of <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/mt-gox-confirms-client-addresses-for-compensation\">distribution of 200,000 BTC<\/a> ($13.9 billion) by Mt.Gox clients.<\/p>\n<p>An additional factor to be assessed is the expected reduction of the Federal Reserve&#8217;s key rate in May or June.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>&#8220;The positioning of digital gold has never been safer. ETFs will attract a new generation of investors and a new marketing impulse. Fiat currencies will continue their rapid devaluation due to the debt-based monetary regime. This makes bitcoin a unique proposition for investors, as its supply is predetermined and independent of demand,&#8221;<\/em> concluded the experts.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Below are the parameters of miners&#8217; rewards and the amount of BTC mined at each halving event.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/3-445.webp\" alt=\"3-445\" class=\"wp-image-229940\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Data: CoinGecko.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>In Bernstein, it was <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/bernstein-analysts-view-correction-as-a-prime-buying-opportunity\">considered<\/a> that a correction to around $63,000 was a good buying opportunity for digital gold &#8220;at the lows&#8221; before the halving. Subsequently, experts revised the bitcoin forecast <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/bernstein-analysts-raise-bitcoin-price-forecast-to-90000\">from $80,000 to $90,000<\/a> by the end of the year.<\/p>\n<p>Previously, Morgan Creek Capital CEO Mark Yusko predicted a &#8220;parabolic&#8221; rise in the price of the leading cryptocurrency after the event. In his view, the price will reach $150,000 by the end of the year.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The value of the leading cryptocurrency increased by an average of 3230% in the 12 months following a halving, according to estimates from CoinGecko. How has Bitcoin price performed after each halving? Our latest study shows that, on average, #Bitcoin price returned 3,230% gains within one year after each halving event. Read the full study: [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":12259,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"","news_style_id":"","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[1098,160,1145,1150,167],"class_list":["post-12260","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-coingecko","tag-halving","tag-market-analysis","tag-news-plus","tag-research"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"11","promo_type":"","layout_type":"","short_excerpt":"","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12260","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12260"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12260\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12259"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12260"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12260"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12260"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}