{"id":13030,"date":"2024-04-29T13:13:04","date_gmt":"2024-04-29T10:13:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/peter-brandt-suggests-bull-market-may-have-peaked-despite-halving\/"},"modified":"2024-04-29T13:13:04","modified_gmt":"2024-04-29T10:13:04","slug":"peter-brandt-suggests-bull-market-may-have-peaked-despite-halving","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/peter-brandt-suggests-bull-market-may-have-peaked-despite-halving\/","title":{"rendered":"Peter Brandt Suggests Bull Market May Have Peaked Despite Halving"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"wp-block-text-wrappers-keypoints article_keypoints\">\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Analyst Peter Brandt estimated a 25% chance that Bitcoin has already reached its ATH in the current cycle, based on the concept of &#8220;exponential decay.&#8221;<\/li>\n<li>The expert anticipates a price increase to $140,000\u2013160,000 by autumn 2025.<\/li>\n<li>Mathematician Giovanni Santostasi predicted a new record high of ~$210,000, using a power growth model.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<p>The Bitcoin bull market may have already reached its <span data-descr=\"all-time high\" class=\"old_tooltip\">ATH<\/span> at <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/bitcoin-surpasses-72000-mark\">$73,800 in March<\/a>, according to technical analyst and Factor LLC head Peter Brandt.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Does history make a case that Bitcoin has topped?<\/p>\n<p>Judge for yourself.<\/p>\n<p>It is called Exponential Decay. Read about it here.<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/r1q5k9HA0n\">https:\/\/t.co\/r1q5k9HA0n<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Would love to hear your thoughts about this <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/ql79gqK6rc\">pic.twitter.com\/ql79gqK6rc<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/PeterLBrandt\/status\/1783928752336212329?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">April 26, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>The expert referred to the concept of &#8220;exponential decay,&#8221; which describes a process of decreasing growth magnitude by a constant percentage over a period.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>&#8220;Historically, Bitcoin has traded within roughly four-year cycles, often associated with<\/em><em>halvings<\/em><em>. Since the initial bull run, there have been three subsequent ones, each 80% less powerful than its predecessor in terms of price growth,&#8221;<\/em> the specialist noted.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>According to Brandt&#8217;s estimates, if this statistical constant holds true, the [record] ATH of ~$73,800 on March 14, 2024, has already reached the calculated peak.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1007.webp\" alt=\"1-1007\" class=\"wp-image-231696\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Data: X.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The table above shows the magnitude or multiple of previous bull runs and Bitcoin&#8217;s exponential decays.<\/p>\n<p>The rally to a record $73,800 in March marked a 4.5-fold increase from the bear market low of $15,500 in November 2022 following the FTX collapse. This is already equivalent to &#8220;losing 80% of the exponential energy [\u2026] of the bull market cycle.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Brandt noted that the concept will remain under his scrutiny until evidence emerges that &#8220;such decay will not affect the bull trend that began in November 2022.&#8221;<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>&#8220;In my analysis, I estimated the probability [of such a scenario] at 25%. I have more confidence in the report I published in February. [\u2026] The &#8216;pre\/post-halving&#8217; cycle construction suggests that the current bull trend will peak in the $140,000<\/em>\u2014<em>160,000 range sometime in late summer\/early autumn 2025,&#8221;<\/em> the analyst explained.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>In February, the specialist<a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/peter-brandt-raises-bitcoin-forecast-to-200000\"> indicated $200,000<\/a> as a potential target for continued upward momentum.<\/p>\n<p>On April 29, CEO and Director of Research at Quantonomy Giovanni Santostasi questioned the validity of exponential decay. He<a href=\"https:\/\/giovannisantostasi.medium.com\/a-scientific-approach-to-estimating-the-size-of-bitcoin-bubbles-1204a0032739\"> recalled<\/a> his model based on long-term power law behavior.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>&#8220;We have three data points if we exclude the pre-halving period, and effectively only two if considering ratios. This is insufficient for any meaningful statistical analysis,&#8221;<\/em> the mathematician commented.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>According to his estimates, the power law model predicts the peak of the fourth cycle around December 2025 at ~$210,000. Calculations show the projected bottom at ~$83,000.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2-775.webp\" alt=\"2-775\" class=\"wp-image-231697\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Data: Medium.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>In the next 15 years, Bitcoin could increase 64-fold,<a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/bitcoin-could-reach-10-6-million-by-2045-expert-predicts\"> reaching $10.63 million<\/a>, according to Santostasi.<\/p>\n<p>Earlier, in comments to ForkLog, experts explained post-halving dynamics and forecasted future developments.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Analyst Peter Brandt estimated a 25% chance that Bitcoin has already reached its ATH in the current cycle, based on the concept of &#8220;exponential decay.&#8221; The expert anticipates a price increase to $140,000\u2013160,000 by autumn 2025. Mathematician Giovanni Santostasi predicted a new record high of ~$210,000, using a power growth model. The Bitcoin bull market [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":13029,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"","news_style_id":"","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[1146,1150,1420],"class_list":["post-13030","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-cryptocurrency-market-forecasts","tag-news-plus","tag-peter-brandt"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"41","promo_type":"","layout_type":"","short_excerpt":"","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13030","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13030"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13030\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/13029"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13030"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13030"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13030"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}