{"id":13701,"date":"2024-05-22T10:33:16","date_gmt":"2024-05-22T07:33:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/could-solana-reach-400-after-firedancers-release\/"},"modified":"2024-05-22T10:33:16","modified_gmt":"2024-05-22T07:33:16","slug":"could-solana-reach-400-after-firedancers-release","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/could-solana-reach-400-after-firedancers-release\/","title":{"rendered":"Could Solana reach $400 after Firedancer\u2019s release?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Analysts at Bernstein <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/solana-leads-the-charge-in-blockchain-payments-says-bernstein\">forecast<\/a> that Solana will lead the race to adopt on-chain payments. The view is <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/solana-predicted-to-surpass-ethereum-in-number-of-dapps\">shared<\/a> by Matty Taylor, co-founder of Colosseum and former head of growth at the Solana Foundation. He believes the \u201cparallelised\u201d blockchain will overtake Ethereum by the number of consumer Web3 applications.<\/p>\n<p>But there are snags. Amid meme fever and a surge in trading volumes on <span data-descr=\"decentralised\/non-custodial exchanges\" class=\"old_tooltip\">DEX<\/span>s, the Solana ecosystem has <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/solana-team-releases-update-to-address-network-congestion\">often faltered<\/a>, struggling to cope with an onslaught of transactions.<\/p>\n<p>A new client has appeared on the horizon that could change the picture. But can it solve every problem?<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-text-wrappers-keypoints article_keypoints\">\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The forthcoming Firedancer client is designed to boost Solana\u2019s throughput and reliability dramatically, which could buoy the price of its native token.<\/li>\n<li>Some experts tip SOL to reach $400 by year-end; others doubt a rapid rally and see Solana overtaking Ethereum by market capitalisation as unlikely any time soon.<\/li>\n<li>Solana still runs up against scalability limits and outages, but Firedancer may address these via parallelisation and optimised P2P communication.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Solana\u2019s unresolved problems<\/h2>\n<p>Among major blockchains, Solana is the fastest\u2014on April 6 its average daily transactions per second (TPS) hit a record 1,504 amid a meme-coin boom.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-Fastest-chains.webp\" alt=\"1-Fastest-chains\" class=\"wp-image-233334\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Data: CoinGecko.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Even so, Solana has reached only 1.6% of its theoretical peak of 65,000 TPS, CoinGecko researchers noted.<\/p>\n<p>Despite impressive performance metrics, the blockchain periodically stumbles under heavy load.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>On 6 February, for instance, the protocol did not process blocks for almost five hours. According to Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets at VanEck, the issue was tied to the Berkeley Packet Filter mechanism, which handles application deployment and upgrades on Solana.<\/p>\n<p>Experts led by journalist Colin Wu <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/experts-identify-cause-of-solanas-recurring-outages\">pointed out<\/a> that this was far from the first outage:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>in May 2021 many transactions failed to finalise owing to unstable network performance;<\/li>\n<li>in September the network exhibited degraded performance for roughly an hour;<\/li>\n<li>in the same month, transaction volume tied to Raydium\u2019s <span data-descr=\"Initial DEX Offering \u2014 the initial offering of a new crypto project's tokens on a decentralised exchange\" class=\"old_tooltip\">IDO<\/span> caused memory exhaustion;<\/li>\n<li>in January 2022 activity by arbitrage bots caused a 30-hour network halt;<\/li>\n<li>soon after, the blockchain buckled under a spike in NFT transactions;<\/li>\n<li>in June a vulnerability in the nonce-signature function triggered a pause;<\/li>\n<li>in October the network failed owing to a bug in the centralised Sentry service;<\/li>\n<li>a subsequent outage was caused by a node-configuration error;<\/li>\n<li>in February 2023 the network stopped processing transactions, necessitating a restart (succeeded only on the second attempt).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\"><p>\n<cite>\u201cLooking back, we understand that the emergence of a large number of transactions is the main cause of the network\u2019s historical outages, which may be related to Solana\u2019s mechanism,\u201d said Hu Zhiwei, president of the Boundary Intelligence Research Institute.<\/cite><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The diversity problem<\/h3>\n<p>In pursuit of decentralisation and avoidance of single points of failure, projects such as Ethereum encourage third-party developers to build their own client implementations in various programming languages, so node operators have a choice.<\/p>\n<p>The main advantages of this approach are:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>each client has unique code, reducing the network\u2019s overall exposure to bugs and attacks;<\/li>\n<li>the risk of a single client manipulating transactions is lowered;<\/li>\n<li>developers can build using the language they prefer.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>At present, three validator clients interact with the Solana blockchain:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Solana Labs, written in Rust;<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.jito.wtf\/\">Jito-Solana<\/a> (a fork of the Solana Labs client, also written in Rust);<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/blog.syndica.io\/introducing-sig-by-syndica-an-rps-focused-solana-validator-client-written-in-zig\/\">Sig<\/a> (written in Zig).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/docs.tinydancer.io\/\">TinyDancer<\/a> is also in active development. But it is a light client that does not produce blocks or participate in consensus; it simply helps users verify chain state without running a full node.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>That means Solana is less resilient to attacks than its main rival, Ethereum, which is supported by a much broader mix of clients.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2-Client-Distribution-1024x683.png\" alt=\"2 Client Distribution\" class=\"wp-image-233337\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2-Client-Distribution-1024x683.png 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2-Client-Distribution-300x200.png 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2-Client-Distribution-768x512.png 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2-Client-Distribution.png 1155w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Data: <a href=\"https:\/\/clientdiversity.org\/\" title=\"ClientDiversity\">ClientDiversity<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What is Firedancer, and how might it fix Solana?<\/h2>\n<p>In August 2022 the Solana Foundation and venture firm Jump Crypto joined forces to build a validator client to improve Solana\u2019s decentralisation and performance.<\/p>\n<p>Scaling is a key factor in crypto, Messari analysts argue. In their words, the Jump Crypto client is intended as an antithesis to the increasingly popular modular approach.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">1\/ Scalability is a key factor in the crypto space, with the modular approach gaining popularity. However, <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/solana?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@Solana<\/a> has taken a contrarian stance.<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/kelxyz_?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@kelxyz_<\/a> explains how <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/jump_firedancer?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@jump_firedancer<\/a>, a validator client developed by <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/jump_?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@jump_<\/a> aims to enhance Solana&#8217;s monolithic approach.? <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/zRc3Q5wSeT\">pic.twitter.com\/zRc3Q5wSeT<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Messari (@MessariCrypto) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/MessariCrypto\/status\/1666094086691102721?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">June 6, 2023<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>The open-source software, called Firedancer, is built in C++ and is meant to complement the Rust-based Solana Labs client.<\/p>\n<p>In tests, the new build reached 1m TPS.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-conversation=\"none\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">2\/ <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/jump_firedancer?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@jump_firedancer<\/a>&#8216;s first milestone, &#8220;fd_quic,&#8221; demonstrated impressive transaction propagation throughput of 1M transactions per second (TPS) in initial performance tests.<\/p>\n<p>But there&#8217;s more work to be done to achieve the full potential of Firedancer.<\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Messari (@MessariCrypto) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/MessariCrypto\/status\/1666094090092711944?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">June 6, 2023<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>The initiative is designed to keep the network stable if one type of client runs into trouble, and to reduce the share of staked assets tied to any single client.<\/p>\n<p>Alchemy experts <a href=\"https:\/\/www.alchemy.com\/overviews\/what-is-firedancer\">outlined<\/a> the main drawbacks of the mainstream Solana Labs client. The \u201cgotchas\u201d, they said, stem from software rather than hardware limits. For example, Solana validators can process only a limited number of transactions concurrently, which can slow the system and create <a href=\"https:\/\/ru.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/%D0%A3%D0%B7%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%B5_%D0%BC%D0%B5%D1%81%D1%82%D0%BE\">bottlenecks<\/a>.<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Evolution of Solana\u2014or just hype?<\/h3>\n<p>The new Solana client targets today\u2019s constraints and outperforms existing solutions on several fronts:<\/p>\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Parallel transaction processing.<\/strong> Written in C and C++, Firedancer can handle more transactions concurrently, speeding the network and reducing bottlenecks. The solution rethinks the <a href=\"https:\/\/medium.com\/solana-labs\/turbine-solanas-block-propagation-protocol-solves-the-scalability-trilemma-2ddba46a51db\">Turbine protocol<\/a>, which shards data into chunks and distributes them across nodes, allowing rapid transmission and processing of large data volumes.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Optimised P2P communication.<\/strong> Improved networking accelerates block and transaction propagation through compression and <span data-descr=\"the process of combining multiple transactions into one to reduce fees and improve blockchain efficiency\" class=\"old_tooltip\">batching<\/span>, shrinking on-chain data loads.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Enhanced consensus.<\/strong> Firedancer uses a modified version of Solana\u2019s PoS protocol that promises greater efficiency and reliability. Crucially, it complements rather than replaces the existing client.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\"><p>\n<cite>\u201cIt [Firedancer] focuses on reducing reliance on third-party libraries and improving network communication and cryptographic functions\u2014critical factors holding back Solana\u2019s performance,\u201d <a href=\"https:\/\/www.datawallet.com\/crypto\/firedancer-solana\">noted<\/a> specialists at DataWallet.<\/cite><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pros and cons of Firedancer<\/h3>\n<p><strong>Advantages:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><em>performance and scalability<\/em>. Supporting more transactions should markedly improve both;<\/li>\n<li><em>reliability<\/em>. Firedancer\u2019s optimisations make the network more stable;<\/li>\n<li><em>efficiency<\/em>. The new client promises to lower validators\u2019 operating costs, as suggested by the documented <a href=\"https:\/\/firedancer-io.github.io\/firedancer\/guide\/getting-started.html\">hardware requirements<\/a>;<\/li>\n<li><em>open source<\/em>. Openness fosters community-led development;<\/li>\n<li><em>fault tolerance<\/em>. More clients mean fewer single points of failure and fewer network outages.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Messari\u2019s analysts say that if successful, the Jump Crypto client could open a \u201cblue ocean\u201d of opportunities for the Solana ecosystem by delivering \u201cunprecedented throughput, composability and lower costs\u201d.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-conversation=\"none\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">3\/ If successful, <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/jump_firedancer?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@jump_firedancer<\/a> could unlock blue ocean markets for the <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/solana?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@Solana<\/a> ecosystem by offering unprecedented throughput, composability, and low costs.<\/p>\n<p>However, challenges in execution, timing, and competition pose risks to its adoption and success. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/EYI73mZx8k\">pic.twitter.com\/EYI73mZx8k<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Messari (@MessariCrypto) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/MessariCrypto\/status\/1666094098380627970?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">June 6, 2023<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Experts call scalability a multi-billion-dollar question. The network that solves it will have a significant edge in winning mass adoption.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-conversation=\"none\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">4\/ Scalability is worth billions in the crypto space, as networks strive to solve scalability.<\/p>\n<p>The network that cracks this challenge will have a significant advantage in achieving widespread adoption.<\/p>\n<p>Validator node-to-node communications lie at the core of this problem.<\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Messari (@MessariCrypto) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/MessariCrypto\/status\/1666094103262806016?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">June 6, 2023<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\"><p>\n<cite>\u201cNode-to-node communication lies at the core of this problem,\u201d Messari emphasised.<\/cite><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-conversation=\"none\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">5\/ In Web3, scalability across distributed servers and decentralized databases is a challenge.<\/p>\n<p>The modular approach splits functions across chains, while the monolithic approach aims for Web2-level scalability at Layer-1.<\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Messari (@MessariCrypto) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/MessariCrypto\/status\/1666094106320445441?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">June 6, 2023<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>According to the analysts, the modular approach splits functions across chains, whereas the monolithic approach aims for \u201cWeb2-level scalability\u201d at layer 1.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-conversation=\"none\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">6\/ <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/jump_firedancer?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@jump_firedancer<\/a> aims to achieve scalability by rewriting each component of the <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/solana?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@Solana<\/a> architecture.<\/p>\n<p>It addresses transaction propagation through its QUIC implementation, fd_quic. Load balancing is achieved through hardware and software optimizations. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/VjhmuKJKLI\">pic.twitter.com\/VjhmuKJKLI<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Messari (@MessariCrypto) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/MessariCrypto\/status\/1666094113865994240?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">June 6, 2023<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\"><p>\n<cite>\u201cFiredancer seeks to achieve scalability by reworking every component of Solana\u2019s architecture. It targets transaction propagation via its QUIC implementation\u2014<a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/jump_firedancer\/status\/1654124396062158850\">fd_quic<\/a>. Load balancing is achieved through hardware and software optimisation,\u201d Messari noted.<\/cite><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>According to the company, in a performance demo TPS reached 1.08m \u201con just four <span data-descr=\"central processing unit, processor\" class=\"old_tooltip\">CPU<\/span> cores, surpassing Solana\u2019s recommended 12-core setup\u201d. Further optimisations of the consensus and execution layers are under way.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-conversation=\"none\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">7\/ <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/jump_firedancer?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@jump_firedancer<\/a>&#8216;s performance demo showcased transactions at 1.08M TPS off just four CPU cores, surpassing <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/solana?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@Solana<\/a>&#8216;s recommended 12-core setup.<\/p>\n<p>Further optimizations and scaling of consensus and execution layers are also in progress. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/hnjdReyqyF\">pic.twitter.com\/hnjdReyqyF<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Messari (@MessariCrypto) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/MessariCrypto\/status\/1666094124536336386?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">June 6, 2023<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>The firm is convinced that Firedancer will \u201cunlock\u201d several significant advantages.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-conversation=\"none\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">7\/ <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/jump_firedancer?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@jump_firedancer<\/a>&#8216;s performance demo showcased transactions at 1.08M TPS off just four CPU cores, surpassing <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/solana?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@Solana<\/a>&#8216;s recommended 12-core setup.<\/p>\n<p>Further optimizations and scaling of consensus and execution layers are also in progress. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/hnjdReyqyF\">pic.twitter.com\/hnjdReyqyF<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Messari (@MessariCrypto) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/MessariCrypto\/status\/1666094124536336386?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">June 6, 2023<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>First, it could make DeFi more \u201cmature\u201d by cutting latency, bringing it closer to centralised counterparts in speed and efficiency.<\/p>\n<p>Second, the new client would benefit high-throughput financial applications and the <a href=\"https:\/\/hub.forklog.com\/chto-takoe-socialfi-i-dlya-chego-eto-nuzhno\/\">SocialFi<\/a> sector.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-conversation=\"none\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">9\/ Secondly, <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/jump_firedancer?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@jump_firedancer<\/a> opens up new application possibilities by enabling Web2 applications on-chain with 1+M TPS.<\/p>\n<p>This scalability would benefit high-throughput financial apps and consumer apps like social media. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/iMLXQ8FgC3\">pic.twitter.com\/iMLXQ8FgC3<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Messari (@MessariCrypto) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/MessariCrypto\/status\/1666094141955276805?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">June 6, 2023<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Lastly, Firedancer will increase Solana\u2019s reliability through client diversity, lowering the risk from bugs even if the new client hits snags.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-conversation=\"none\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">10\/ Lastly, <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/jump_firedancer?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@jump_firedancer<\/a> increases <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/solana?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@Solana<\/a>&#8216;s chain robustness by introducing client diversity.<\/p>\n<p>With backup clients like <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/solanalabs?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@solanalabs<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/jito_labs?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@jito_labs<\/a>, the network can mitigate the risk of bugs and maintain performance even if Firedancer encounters issues. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/giVnNIzyAE\">pic.twitter.com\/giVnNIzyAE<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Messari (@MessariCrypto) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/MessariCrypto\/status\/1666094149563711488?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">June 6, 2023<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p><strong>Drawbacks:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><em>a new technology<\/em>. Like any new product, Firedancer may contain bugs and rough edges;<\/li>\n<li><em>a learning curve<\/em>. Validators will need time to master the client and adapt their processes.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Can Solana overtake Ethereum?<\/h2>\n<p>Ryan McMillin, chief investment officer at Merkle Tree Capital, has forecast that SOL could hit $400 by November this year. He expects a wave of US election-themed meme-coins to act as a catalyst.<\/p>\n<p>He noted that assets such as Jeo Boden (BODEN) and Doland Tremp (TREMP) helped Solana overtake Ethereum by trading volume. In his view, the trend will persist over the coming months.<\/p>\n<p>As of May 20, ether\u2019s market capitalisation stood at $376.9bn, according to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.coingecko.com\/\">CoinGecko<\/a>. Solana\u2019s was $81.2bn, with SOL at $180.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"564\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/ETH-vs-SOL-Mcap-1024x564.png\" alt=\"ETH vs SOL Mcap\" class=\"wp-image-233338\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/ETH-vs-SOL-Mcap-1024x564.png 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/ETH-vs-SOL-Mcap-300x165.png 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/ETH-vs-SOL-Mcap-768x423.png 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/ETH-vs-SOL-Mcap.png 1504w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Data: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/chart\/?symbol=CRYPTOCAP%3ASOL\" title=\"TradingView\">TradingView<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>That implies that at $400 the coin\u2019s capitalisation would top $180bn\u2014still less than half that of its main rival and the current DeFi leader, Ethereum.<\/p>\n<p>In a conversation with <a href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/solana-flip-ethereum-needs-chatgpt-moment-analysts\">Cointelegraph<\/a>, Austin Federa, head of strategy at the Solana Foundation, said a <span data-descr=\"a hypothetical event in which one cryptocurrency surpasses another by market capitalisation\" class=\"old_tooltip\">flippening<\/span> is unlikely in the short term. But it should not be ruled out, he added, given \u201ca potential wave of consumer-facing applications\u201d on the L1 blockchain with Firedancer \u201cunder the hood\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>He added that he has recently seen an uptick in developers wanting to migrate from Ethereum.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\"><p>\n<cite>\u201cWhen working with Solana, everyone can write an interface in almost any programming language,\u201d Federa emphasised, citing Rust, C and Python.<\/cite><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>According to him, support for the Move language will appear soon.<\/p>\n<p>Pranav Kanade, a portfolio manager at VanEck, stressed that Solana\u2019s main problem, which prevents it from competing seriously with Ethereum, is insufficient client diversity. That means bugs can paralyse the blockchain\u2014something that has happened at least ten times in recent years.<\/p>\n<p>Both Kanade and Federa are pinning hopes on the upcoming upgrade.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\"><p>\n<cite>\u201cI see Firedancer as a key catalyst. Its successful launch will be a breakthrough for the network and could narrow the valuation gap between ETH and SOL, up to a potential flippening. If not, the modular roadmap of the second-largest cryptocurrency will catch up,\u201d the VanEck executive said.<\/cite><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>However, Kanade acknowledged that, thanks to ether\u2019s longer track record and vast developer community, new projects still tend to choose it and its layer-2 ecosystem. Solana has a long way to go to catch up.<\/p>\n<p>The chart below shows that in 2023 the Ethereum ecosystem attracted 16,700 new coders\u2014around four times the number for its ambitious challenger.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"577\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/Newcomers-1024x577.jpeg\" alt=\"Newcomers\" class=\"wp-image-233339\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/Newcomers-1024x577.jpeg 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/Newcomers-300x169.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/Newcomers-768x432.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/Newcomers-1536x865.jpeg 1536w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/Newcomers.jpeg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Data: Electric Capital, <a href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/solana-flip-ethereum-needs-chatgpt-moment-analysts\" title=\"Cointelegraph\">Cointelegraph<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Mark Smargon, founder and CEO of the Fuse Network blockchain, is also sceptical about a flippening:<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\"><p>\n<cite>\u201cIf you look at ether\u2019s long-term goals and how a decentralised economy is built from the bottom up, you can see that many ideas reach Solana only after being tested on the second-largest cryptocurrency.\u201d<\/cite><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Conclusions<\/h2>\n<p>Firedancer\u2014an innovative Solana client developed by Jump Crypto\u2014is intended to take the network\u2019s performance to a new level. With more efficient block distribution, optimised signature verification and other improvements, it could lift throughput to over 1m TPS.<\/p>\n<p>The launch of the Firedancer testnet <a href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/solana-sol-price-gains-october-firedancer-testnet-goes-live\">in October 2023<\/a> marked an important milestone, opening the way to large-scale testing and optimisation in an environment close to Solana\u2019s mainnet.<\/p>\n<p>No firm date has yet been announced for a full mainnet release. Typically, after a testnet goes live, developers gather data and feedback and make adjustments before a mainnet rollout.<\/p>\n<p>Firedancer could revolutionise Solana by improving both throughput and reliability. While unlikely, it is not impossible that, over the long term, the popular L1 could narrow the capitalisation gap with its main rival, Ethereum.<\/p>\n<p><em>Update (8 July 2024, 15:49 Kyiv\/MSK): this article has been amended\u2014sections with information about sharding, taken from Messari, Alchemy and Kraken materials, have been removed. The Firedancer developer under the pseudonym Cantelope Peel <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/CantelopePeel\/status\/1810098784010993991\" title=\"\u0437\u0430\u044f\u0432\u0438\u043b\">\u0437\u0430\u044f\u0432\u0438\u043b<\/a> there are no plans to support horizontal data partitioning in Solana or in the client slated for release.  <\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Analysts at Bernstein forecast that Solana will lead the race to adopt on-chain payments. The view is shared by Matty Taylor, co-founder of Colosseum and former head of growth at the Solana Foundation. He believes the \u201cparallelised\u201d blockchain will overtake Ethereum by the number of consumer Web3 applications. But there are snags. Amid meme fever [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":13700,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"","news_style_id":"","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1144],"tags":[277,1159],"class_list":["post-13701","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-longreads","tag-scaling","tag-solana-sol"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"29","promo_type":"","layout_type":"","short_excerpt":"","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13701","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13701"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13701\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/13700"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13701"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13701"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13701"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}