{"id":14327,"date":"2024-06-13T18:40:15","date_gmt":"2024-06-13T15:40:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/analyst-bitcoin-halving-triggers-miner-capitulation\/"},"modified":"2024-06-13T18:40:15","modified_gmt":"2024-06-13T15:40:15","slug":"analyst-bitcoin-halving-triggers-miner-capitulation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/analyst-bitcoin-halving-triggers-miner-capitulation\/","title":{"rendered":"Analyst: Bitcoin Halving Triggers Miner Capitulation"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>On-chain analyst Ali Martinez is convinced that the reduction in Bitcoin mining profitability following the <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/bitcoin-undergoes-fourth-halving\">April halving<\/a> has triggered a &#8220;wave of capitulations&#8221; among miners.<\/p>\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Since the <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/halving?src=hash&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#halving<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Bitcoin?src=hash&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Bitcoin<\/a> mining costs have soared. On average, it now costs about $77,000 to mine a single <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24BTC&#038;src=ctag&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$BTC<\/a> today. This spike in expenses has led to a wave of capitulation among <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/BTC?src=hash&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#BTC<\/a> miners in the past month. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/kZPShNodP1\">pic.twitter.com\/kZPShNodP1<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Ali (@ali_charts) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ali_charts\/status\/1801240618099769619?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">June 13, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>In his post on X, the expert attached a chart showing the average cost of mining one Bitcoin \u2014 on June 12, the figure reached ~$74,600. On the same day, digital gold was trading near $68,000.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"520\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/MacroMicro-1024x520.png\" alt=\"MacroMicro\" class=\"wp-image-234808\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/MacroMicro-1024x520.png 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/MacroMicro-300x152.png 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/MacroMicro-768x390.png 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/MacroMicro.png 1027w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Average cost of Bitcoin mining. Data: <a href=\"https:\/\/en.macromicro.me\/charts\/29435\/bitcoin-production-total-cost\">MacroMicro<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Recently, it has become unprofitable for most miners to mine Bitcoin. It can be assumed that only large companies, with access to &#8220;cheap electricity&#8221; and\/or significant financial &#8220;cushions&#8221; formed before the reward for a mined block was reduced from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, remain profitable.<\/p>\n<p>The chart below \u2014 the &#8220;Difficulty Ribbon&#8221; \u2014 has indicated miner capitulation since early May.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"568\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/Look-Into-Bitcoin-Hash-Ribbons-Indicator-1024x568.png\" alt=\"Look-Into-Bitcoin-Hash-Ribbons-Indicator\" class=\"wp-image-234809\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/Look-Into-Bitcoin-Hash-Ribbons-Indicator-1024x568.png 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/Look-Into-Bitcoin-Hash-Ribbons-Indicator-300x167.png 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/Look-Into-Bitcoin-Hash-Ribbons-Indicator-768x426.png 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/Look-Into-Bitcoin-Hash-Ribbons-Indicator.png 1443w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Data: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.lookintobitcoin.com\/charts\/hash-ribbons\/\">LookIntoBitcoin<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>This indicates that the costs of maintaining equipment and electricity expenses have exceeded the price of the mined cryptocurrency for several months. In other words, the indicator points to a significant portion of equipment being disconnected from the network.<\/p>\n<p>The next chart illustrates the cessation of hash rate growth after the halving and the first signs of a reversal of the multi-year trend. This also confirms the thesis of a significant portion of miners exiting the game.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"382\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/Chart-Thu-Jun-13-2024-1024x382.png\" alt=\"Chart-Thu-Jun-13-2024\" class=\"wp-image-234810\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/Chart-Thu-Jun-13-2024-1024x382.png 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/Chart-Thu-Jun-13-2024-300x112.png 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/Chart-Thu-Jun-13-2024-768x286.png 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/Chart-Thu-Jun-13-2024-1536x573.png 1536w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/Chart-Thu-Jun-13-2024.png 1805w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Smoothed 7-day moving average of Bitcoin hash rate. Data: <a href=\"https:\/\/charts.coinmetrics.io\/crypto-data\/?config=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%3D%3D\">Coin Metrics<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The chart vividly illustrates the decline in <span data-descr=\"miner revenue per unit of power consumed\" class=\"old_tooltip\">hashprice<\/span> since the halving:<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"595\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/hashprice-12-1024x595.png\" alt=\"hashprice-12\" class=\"wp-image-234811\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/hashprice-12-1024x595.png 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/hashprice-12-300x174.png 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/hashprice-12-768x446.png 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/hashprice-12.png 1090w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Bitcoin hashprice dynamics. Data: <a href=\"https:\/\/data.hashrateindex.com\/network-data\/btc\">Hasrate Index<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Since the last halving, the daily figure has fallen from ~$0.17 to $0.056 per <a href=\"https:\/\/coinmarketcap.com\/academy\/ru\/glossary\/terahashes-per-second\">terahash<\/a> of power.<\/p>\n<p>Previously, Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards saw a buying signal for digital gold in the &#8220;Difficulty Ribbon.&#8221;\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The last miner capitulation was observed in 2023, when Bitcoin was trading around $20,000, the expert noted.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>On-chain analyst Ali Martinez is convinced that the reduction in Bitcoin mining profitability following the April halving has triggered a &#8220;wave of capitulations&#8221; among miners.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":14326,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"","news_style_id":"","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[1137,1279,1145],"class_list":["post-14327","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-cryptocurrency-mining","tag-hashrate-2","tag-market-analysis"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"15","promo_type":"","layout_type":"","short_excerpt":"","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14327","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=14327"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14327\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/14326"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14327"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=14327"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=14327"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}