{"id":21949,"date":"2025-03-11T18:15:00","date_gmt":"2025-03-11T16:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/qcp-capital-attributes-bitcoins-decline-to-trumps-recession-stance\/"},"modified":"2025-03-11T18:15:00","modified_gmt":"2025-03-11T16:15:00","slug":"qcp-capital-attributes-bitcoins-decline-to-trumps-recession-stance","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/qcp-capital-attributes-bitcoins-decline-to-trumps-recession-stance\/","title":{"rendered":"QCP Capital Attributes Bitcoin&#8217;s Decline to Trump&#8217;s Recession Stance"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"wp-block-text-wrappers-keypoints article_keypoints\">\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The flight from risky assets is driven by signals of US President Donald Trump&#8217;s readiness for a recession.<\/li>\n<li>Investors remain cautious, considering only &#8220;long-term&#8221; call options.<\/li>\n<li>Technical indicators do not rule out a rebound due to extreme levels of fear.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<p>The price of the leading cryptocurrency <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/bitcoin-price-tests-80000-mark\">hit new lows<\/a> for the year, falling below $80,000 as a leading indicator for risky assets, according to a report by <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/QCPgroup\/status\/1899386960910934244\">QCP Capital<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Experts pointed to an interview with US President Donald Trump, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fox9.com\/news\/trump-recession-2025\" title=\"\">who showed<\/a> indifference to recession risks, as the trigger.<\/p>\n<p>Despite his reputation as a stock market defender, he allowed for a correction\u2014a &#8220;rectification&#8221; of the state through a downturn on Wall Street.<\/p>\n<p>QCP Capital noted the decline in US government bond yields and the weakening of the US dollar, historically positive factors for risky assets.<\/p>\n<p>Analysts observed demand for &#8220;long-term&#8221; call options with &#8220;upper&#8221; expirations, indicating readiness for a quick rebound from support at the $75,000 level.<\/p>\n<p>Matrixport believes that optimism regarding the short-term dynamics of the cryptocurrency market is unjustified. They noted a slowdown in the inflow of funds into stablecoins as a leading indicator of improving sentiment.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1471.webp\" alt=\"1-1471\" class=\"wp-image-253815\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Data: <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/Matrixport_EN\/status\/1899010242257859067\">X<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Is a Recession Looming?<\/h2>\n<p>Recently, JPMorgan<a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/livecoverage\/stock-market-today-dow-nasdaq-sp500-03-10-2025\/card\/is-the-u-s-heading-for-a-recession-here-s-what-the-experts-say-xIKohneDur8BYbqlYLW1\"> increased<\/a> the probability of a recession from 30% to 40% &#8220;due to extreme US policies.&#8221; <\/p>\n<p>Goldman Sachs revised their corresponding parameter from 15% to 20%. Experts are ready to increase the estimate if &#8220;the Trump administration remains committed to its policy even in the face of much worse data.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Anthony Pompliano <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/APompliano\/status\/1899154245783359849\">saw<\/a> in the actions of the US president a desire to achieve a reduction in the key rate from the <span data-descr=\"Federal Reserve System of the USA\" class=\"old_tooltip\">Fed<\/span> by creating increased uncertainty.<\/p>\n<p>According to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/markets\/interest-rates\/cme-fedwatch-tool.html\">CME FedWatch<\/a>, the chances of easing monetary policy at the May meeting are estimated at 48%. A month ago, the figure was 21.9%.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/cme-5.webp\" alt=\"cme-5\" class=\"wp-image-253812\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Data: CME FedWatch.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Technical Outlook<\/h2>\n<p>The Kobeissi Letter <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/KobeissiLetter\/status\/1899306301500309533\">suggested<\/a> a wave of short covering in risky assets after reaching a level of extreme fear.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>&#8220;Markets do not move in a straight line in the long term. Eventually, a <\/em><em>short squeeze<\/em><em> is inevitable,&#8221;<\/em> they wrote.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Researcher Timothy Peterson <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/nsquaredvalue\/status\/1899251299851358483\">calculated<\/a> that since 1990, the VIX fear index was higher only 11% of the time.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>&#8220;The probability of hitting the bottom today is 89%,&#8221;<\/em> he assessed.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>The chances of a rebound may be strengthened by a bullish divergence on the RSI on the four-hour timeframe, according to trader nicknamed Cas Abbe.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/3-587.webp\" alt=\"3-587\" class=\"wp-image-253818\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Data: <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/cas_abbe\/status\/1899381979482624128\">X<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Analyst Rekt Capital <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/rektcapital\/status\/1899050458821414975\">recommended<\/a> monitoring oscillator signals on the daily chart to confirm a sustainable return to a growth trajectory.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Leverage Washout<\/h2>\n<p>CryptoQuant noted a sharp drop in open interest in Bitcoin and Ethereum futures, indicating a &#8220;leverage washout&#8221; and chances for market stabilization.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2-1043.webp\" alt=\"2-1043\" class=\"wp-image-253819\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Data: <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/AxelAdlerJr\/status\/1899347199764398364\">X<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The total figure decreased by $1.37 billion\u2014$668 million of which was in digital gold, and $700 million in the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization.<\/p>\n<p>Back in April, YouHodler&#8217;s Head of Markets Ruslan Lienkha<a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/experts-question-bitcoins-status-as-digital-gold\"> expressed concern<\/a> about the current correction. The expert noted that it could develop into a medium-term bearish trend.<\/p>\n<p>Earlier, former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/arthur-hayes-predicts-bitcoin-dip-to-70000-before-recovery\">did not rule out<\/a> a drop in Bitcoin to $70,000 before recovery.<\/p>\n<p>CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/expert-identifies-target-of-bitcoins-current-correction\">suggested<\/a> a prolonged consolidation of the asset within a wide range (e.g., $75,000-$100,000), as observed in early 2024 before returning to growth.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The flight from risky assets is driven by signals of US President Donald Trump&#8217;s readiness for a recession. Investors remain cautious, considering only &#8220;long-term&#8221; call options. Technical indicators do not rule out a rebound due to extreme levels of fear. The price of the leading cryptocurrency hit new lows for the year, falling below $80,000 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":21948,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"","news_style_id":"","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[1168,1146,1205,1224,1145,1150,1326,1253],"class_list":["post-21949","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-crypto-derivatives","tag-cryptocurrency-market-forecasts","tag-cryptoquant","tag-macroeconomics","tag-market-analysis","tag-news-plus","tag-qcp-capital","tag-technical-analysis"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"17","promo_type":"","layout_type":"","short_excerpt":"","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21949","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=21949"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21949\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/21948"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=21949"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=21949"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=21949"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}