{"id":23062,"date":"2025-04-15T16:01:28","date_gmt":"2025-04-15T13:01:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/opinion-crypto-market-pauses-amid-us-china-geopolitical-tensions\/"},"modified":"2025-04-15T16:01:28","modified_gmt":"2025-04-15T13:01:28","slug":"opinion-crypto-market-pauses-amid-us-china-geopolitical-tensions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/opinion-crypto-market-pauses-amid-us-china-geopolitical-tensions\/","title":{"rendered":"Opinion: Crypto Market Pauses Amid US-China Geopolitical Tensions"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"wp-block-text-wrappers-keypoints article_keypoints\">\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Bitcoin is expected to consolidate within the $80,000-90,000 range.<\/li>\n<li>The US Treasury will inject an additional $100 billion into the financial system by the end of April.<\/li>\n<li>The correlation between bitcoin&#8217;s price and global liquidity changes stands at 83%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<p>In bitcoin options expiring by June, puts dominate as market participants hedge against potential &#8220;surprises&#8221; from the US-China trade war, according to a report by QCP Capital.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Asia Colour \u2014 14 Apr 25<\/p>\n<p>1\/ Markets are going all-in \u2014 even as US-China trade tensions hit fever pitch. With the US imposing a staggering 145% tariff on Chinese imports and China retaliating at 125%, risk assets have surprisingly stabilised. At these levels, tariffs have become\u2026<\/p>\n<p>\u2014 QCP (@QCPgroup) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/QCPgroup\/status\/1911731892648546508?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">April 14, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Over the longer term, the perception of digital gold is becoming more constructive, experts noted.<\/p>\n<p>They believe that in the near future, the price of the leading cryptocurrency will continue to consolidate within the $80,000-90,000 range.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Who Will Blink First: The US or China?<\/h2>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>&#8220;Washington seeks leverage, while Beijing desires a breather. However, neither state can afford to show weakness. Meanwhile, the US is negotiating not only with China but also with bond markets and itself,&#8221;<\/em> the review states.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Analyst and MN Trading founder Micha\u00ebl van de Poppe highlighted the increase in money supply according to <a href=\"https:\/\/ru.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/%D0%94%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%B5%D0%B6%D0%BD%D0%B0%D1%8F_%D0%BC%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%81%D0%B0\">aggregate M2<\/a>.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">A great chart, which shows the M2 Supply is rallying back upwards.<\/p>\n<p>If the correlation remains, then I assume that we&#8217;ll see <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Bitcoin?src=hash&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Bitcoin<\/a> rally to an ATH in this quarter.<\/p>\n<p>This would also imply a rise in CNH\/USD, a fall in Yields, a fall in Gold, a fall in DXY, and a rise in #\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/wLCabG6kdN\">pic.twitter.com\/wLCabG6kdN<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Micha\u00ebl van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/CryptoMichNL\/status\/1912059235241705849?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">April 15, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>&#8220;If the correlation remains, then bitcoin will rise to a new record this quarter. This would also imply a rise in <span data-descr=\"offshore yuan\" class=\"old_tooltip\">CNH<\/span>\/USD, a fall in yields [of US government bonds], a decrease in gold prices, [\u2026] and a rise in altcoins,&#8221;<\/em> the expert predicted.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Role of the US Treasury<\/h2>\n<p>Macro analyst known as TomasOnMarkets pointed out the use of $500 billion in US Treasury balances at the <span data-descr=\"Federal Reserve System of the United States\" class=\"old_tooltip\">Fed<\/span> since February 12.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">? Fed liquidity is rising <\/p>\n<p>Net Federal Reserve Liquidity has increased by around $500bn since February.<\/p>\n<p>It&#8217;s not really having any positive impact on risk asset prices with everything else going on.<\/p>\n<p>But it is happening.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s what is occurring and what to expect next\u2026\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/VZJgGnDySS\">https:\/\/t.co\/VZJgGnDySS<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/IIsDJBuABq\">pic.twitter.com\/IIsDJBuABq<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Tomas (@TomasOnMarkets) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/TomasOnMarkets\/status\/1911442071757431070?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">April 13, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>As a result, the net volume of liquidity in the financial system soared to $6.3 trillion, which, in his view, creates a favorable backdrop for the price increase of the leading cryptocurrency.<\/p>\n<p>According to the specialist&#8217;s calculations, by the end of April, the figure will reach $600 billion. If debt ceiling negotiations extend to August, net liquidity could rise to a multi-year high of $6.6 trillion. This would provide a &#8220;tailwind&#8221; for digital gold, TomasOnMarkets added.<\/p>\n<p>According to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.lynalden.com\/bitcoin-a-global-liquidity-barometer\/\">research<\/a> by financial analyst Lyn Alden, bitcoin historically moved in line with global liquidity 83% of the time.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"567\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1516-1024x567.png\" alt=\"1-1516\" class=\"wp-image-256681\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1516-1024x567.png 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1516-300x166.png 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1516-768x425.png 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1516.png 1177w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Data: Lynalden.com.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Technical analyst Peter Brandt holds a bearish view. He urged not to draw far-reaching conclusions after the asset&#8217;s price broke through the descending trendline.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Lots of amateur chartists are noting this trendline.<br \/>Of all chart construction, trendlines are the LEAST significant. A trendline violation does NOT signify a transition of trend <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24BTC&#038;src=ctag&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$BTC<\/a><br \/>Sorry <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/GpSBFMW5Aq\">pic.twitter.com\/GpSBFMW5Aq<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/PeterLBrandt\/status\/1912116121781645756?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">April 15, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>&#8220;A violation [\u2026] does not signify a change in trend. Sorry,&#8221;<\/em> he wrote.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Earlier, <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/analysts-predict-bitcoin-surge-post-march\">Compass Point analyst Ed Engel <\/a>and experts from <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/rising-money-supply-signals-bitcoin-rally-resurgence\">Bravos Research<\/a> reached similar conclusions about the prospects for the leading cryptocurrency&#8217;s price growth amid changes in the M2 money aggregate.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin is expected to consolidate within the $80,000-90,000 range. The US Treasury will inject an additional $100 billion into the financial system by the end of April. The correlation between bitcoin&#8217;s price and global liquidity changes stands at 83%. In bitcoin options expiring by June, puts dominate as market participants hedge against potential &#8220;surprises&#8221; from [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":23061,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"","news_style_id":"","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[1168,1146,1224,1150,1326],"class_list":["post-23062","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-crypto-derivatives","tag-cryptocurrency-market-forecasts","tag-macroeconomics","tag-news-plus","tag-qcp-capital"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"34","promo_type":"","layout_type":"","short_excerpt":"","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23062","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=23062"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23062\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/23061"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=23062"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=23062"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=23062"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}