{"id":23231,"date":"2025-04-21T11:12:45","date_gmt":"2025-04-21T08:12:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/betting-on-efficiency-how-bitcoin-miners-are-adapting-to-new-realities\/"},"modified":"2025-04-21T11:12:45","modified_gmt":"2025-04-21T08:12:45","slug":"betting-on-efficiency-how-bitcoin-miners-are-adapting-to-new-realities","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/betting-on-efficiency-how-bitcoin-miners-are-adapting-to-new-realities\/","title":{"rendered":"Betting on efficiency: how bitcoin miners are adapting to new realities"},"content":{"rendered":"

Since the announcement of \u2018liberation\u2019 tariffs<\/a>, bitcoin fell sharply<\/a> \u2014 as did the \u0433\u043b\u043e\u0431\u0430\u043b\u044c\u043d\u044b\u0435 \u0444\u043e\u043d\u0434\u043e\u0432\u044b\u0435 \u0438\u043d\u0434\u0435\u043a\u0441\u044b<\/a>. At one point, volatility in the S&P 500, the \u201cbarometer of the American economy,\u201d even \u043f\u0440\u0435\u0432\u0437\u043e\u0448\u043b\u0430<\/a> swings in the leading cryptocurrency.<\/p>\n

One might have expected miner capitulation amid uncertainty and declining profitability. Instead, hashrate is hitting records<\/a> and network difficulty is rising. All this suggests market participants still believe in digital gold\u2019s long-term potential.<\/p>\n

Hashrate vs bitcoin\u2019s price<\/h2>\n

Despite an uninspiring price trend, the network\u2019s hashrate continues its \u201crocket ride\u201d \u2014 the metric keeps setting all-time highs, shrugging off macro ructions and market turbulence.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The two usually move together: when price falls or flatlines, mining profitability drops and hashrate tends to stagnate or decline.<\/p>\n

\"1_price_vs_hashrate\"
A divergence between rising hashrate and falling price. Data: Bitcoin Magazine Pro<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Difficulty, which is inextricably linked to hashrate, jumped by almost 7% on April 5.<\/p>\n

\"2-diff\"
Data: CloverPool<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The metric adjusts automatically to maintain a stable block interval and rises only in response to a notable increase in network computing power.<\/p>\n

Miners, it seems, are going all-in: they are adding capacity and investing in infrastructure even though today\u2019s price hardly promises a quick payback.<\/p>\n

\"3-S21\"
Bitcoin mining profitability on an Antminer S21 with 200 TH\/s and 3500 W; electricity rate \u2014 $0.1 per kWh. Data: CryptoCalc<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

At first glance, the strategy looks irrational. Yet it may reflect firm conviction in bitcoin\u2019s long-term potential and strong rewards for those securing the network.<\/p>\n

A bet on the future<\/h3>\n

Recently the \u201cdifficulty ribbon\u201d indicator flashed a buy signal for bitcoin, adding intrigue to the market backdrop.<\/p>\n

\"4-hash-ribbons\"
\u201cDifficulty ribbon\u201d dynamics. Data: Bitcoin Magazine Pro.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

A rising 30-day moving average (blue) crossing above the 60-day (purple) signals the end of miner capitulation and a revival in their \u201cvitality\u201d. Visually, the chart background switches from red to white.<\/p>\n

\n\u201cHistorically, such crossovers have often marked turning points for bitcoin\u2019s price,\u201d \u2014 \u043f\u043e\u044f\u0441\u043d\u0438\u043b<\/a> Bitcoin Magazine Pro lead analyst Matt Crosby.<\/cite><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

He finds today\u2019s setup especially notable: the clear breakaway of the faster moving average is not just a sign of miner recovery but a \u201cbig bet on the future\u201d.<\/p>\n

Not so simple<\/h3>\n

Many read a rising hashrate as a bullish signal, but \u201cthe reality is far more complex,\u201d noted<\/a> Bitcoin Magazine Pro and Blockware Solutions analyst Mitchell Askew.<\/p>\n

\n\u201cIn the short term, growth in the metric can be bearish as it intensifies competition among miners and forces them to sell more bitcoin to cover power costs. Over the long run, however, a higher hashrate reflects greater investment in infrastructure and improved network security,\u201d the expert explained.<\/cite><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

CoinDesk senior analyst James Van Straten is also concerned<\/a> by the rise in hashrate and difficulty against subdued on-chain activity and relatively low prices.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n\u201cFor miners to remain profitable and cover operating and capital expenses, you need a high bitcoin price, full blocks and high transaction fees,\u201d he stressed.<\/cite><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Van Straten likened bitcoin\u2019s blockchain to \u201ca powerful train hurtling down the tracks, but without passengers\u201d.<\/p>\n

\n\u201cI hope bitcoiners realize this space is more than just podcasts, X audio rooms and \u2018up only\u2019 on the digital-gold narrative. If we don\u2019t get people using bitcoin for real commerce, the game is over,\u201d said former Nasdaq board member Nicholas Gregory.<\/cite><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

A more optimistic view was offered<\/a> by CryptoQuant contributor Yonsei_dent. In his view, sustained growth in hashrate and difficulty amid falling price points to powerful fundamentals \u2014 chiefly the asset\u2019s intrinsic value and network security.<\/p>\n

According to Hashrate Index<\/a>, \u0445\u0435\u0448\u043f\u0440\u0430\u0439\u0441<\/span> is stagnating near a ~$40 per PH\/s per day low. The current reading is $44.3.<\/p>\n

\"5-bitcoin-hashprice-index-20250418\"
Bitcoin hashprice dynamics. Data: Hashrate Index as of April 18.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

To Yonsei_dent, rising technical metrics may look negative because they raise mining costs, but they ultimately reinforce bitcoin\u2019s constructive outlook. He cited CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju who, analysing hashrate trends, allowed for a potential surge in the leading cryptocurrency\u2019s market capitalisation to $5trn.<\/p>\n

The tariff backdrop<\/h2>\n

What is stoking miners\u2019 urgency in a less-than-friendly environment? Crosby argues one driver \u2014 especially in the US \u2014 is a rush to front-run the impact of forthcoming \u201cliberation\u201d tariffs.<\/p>\n

\n\u201cBitmain \u2014 the largest maker of mining hardware \u2014 could be hit. Amid changes in trade policy, ASIC prices could rise by 30\u201350%, and in the worst case more than double,\u201d the specialist suggested.<\/cite><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\"6-mining-pool-distr\"
The largest mining pools and their shares of bitcoin\u2019s total hashrate. Data: Hashrate Index<\/a> as of April 19.
<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

More than 40% of bitcoin\u2019s hashrate is concentrated in US giants such as Foundry USA, MARA Pool and Luxor.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n\u201cThat leaves miners especially exposed to higher costs: even small increases can hit profitability hard. This may explain why capacity is being added now \u2014 while hardware remains (relatively) available and cheap,\u201d Crosby noted.<\/cite><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

A shot in the foot?<\/h3>\n

Many industry experts expect the \u201cliberation\u201d tariffs announced on April 2 to hit US bitcoin miners. <\/p>\n

Most mining rigs enter the country from Malaysia (a new tariff of 24%), Thailand (36%) and Indonesia (32%), noted<\/a> Blockware Solutions founder and CEO Mason Jappa.<\/p>\n

\n\u201cRigs already delivered to the US will become more expensive,\u201d he said.<\/cite><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

BitMars general manager Summer Man added China (54%) to the list. She stressed that all factories of Bitmain, the largest maker of bitcoin-mining equipment, would be affected.<\/p>\n

\u041f\u043e \u043e\u0446\u0435\u043d\u043a\u0435<\/a> analysts at The Mining Pod, the China-based company controls about 80% of the global ASIC-miner market. Its closest competitor and \u201ccountryman\u201d, MicroBT, holds around 7%, with both firms\u2019 production concentrated in the same jurisdictions.<\/p>\n

Both companies earlier said<\/a> they would launch manufacturing lines in the US. Yet \u043d\u0438\u0447\u0435\u0433\u043e \u043d\u0435 \u0438\u0437\u0432\u0435\u0441\u0442\u043d\u043e<\/a> about the true scale of those plans. Moreover, chips for the rigs still arrive from abroad.<\/p>\n

According to Lauren Lin, head of hardware at service firm Luxor Technology, some suppliers are scrambling to \u201ccatch the last train\u201d<\/a>, rushing large ASIC shipments from Asia to the US.<\/p>\n

Hardware accounts for a substantial share of miners\u2019 costs, and a rise of more than 20% in purchase prices will materially affect profitability, she added.<\/p>\n

Synteq Digital CEO Taras Kulik believes the announced tariffs \u201cwill stifle further sector development\u201d.<\/p>\n

Hashlabs head Jaran Mellerud forecast<\/a> a short-term spike in mining-rig imports amid a temporary \u201ctariff reprieve\u201d.<\/p>\n

Before mutual tariffs took effect, US President Donald Trump announced a 90-day delay, leaving in place a base rate of 10%.<\/p>\n

Mellerud called that levy \u201cmaterial, but not fatal\u201d.<\/p>\n

\n\u201cBy paying 10% more for rigs than overseas competitors, US miners are at a disadvantage. That is not enough to make crypto mining in the US unprofitable, but it raises capex and weighs on the viability of new investments over the long term,\u201d he conceded.<\/cite><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

For these reasons, miners will hurry to bring equipment into the US to get ahead of possible future price rises, the expert added.<\/p>\n

Earlier, Mellerud estimated the impact of the tariffs announced by Trump on US bitcoin miners. He expects equipment costs to rise by 24%. The payback period for Bitmain\u2019s latest-generation Antminer S21 would extend to 23 months, versus 18 months for firms outside the US.<\/p>\n

\n\u201cThe US share of the global bitcoin-mining industry is likely to decline because of the tariffs. The country will remain a major player, but its dominance will wane, leading to a broader global distribution of hashrate,\u201d Mellerud concluded.<\/cite><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Mining goes on<\/h2>\n

\n\u201cBitcoin mining has never been this unprofitable per terahash,\u201d Crosby noted.<\/cite><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

In his experience, toward the end of bear markets hashprice typically starts to rise: competition eases and weaker participants exit.<\/p>\n

\"7-hashprice_vs_btc_price\"
Hashprice per terahash is setting new lows. Data: Bitcoin Magazine Pro.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\n\u201cBut this time is very different. Despite low profitability, miners are not only staying online, they are adding computing power. That points to two likely scenarios: either they are trying to accelerate the accumulation of digital gold as margins narrow, or \u2014 more optimistically \u2014 they are confident in bitcoin\u2019s future profitability and are buying the dip,\u201d the expert said.<\/cite><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

As ever, new, more power-efficient and capable rigs are arriving. Bitdeer has tested<\/a> its SEAL03 bitcoin-mining chip, demonstrating energy efficiency of 9.7 J\/TH. That matches Bitmain\u2019s flagship Antminer S21XP Hydro.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The firm plans to unveil a next-generation chip with 5 J\/TH energy use.<\/p>\n

A fly in the ointment<\/h3>\n

In the first quarter, sales by smaller miners climbed, Coin Metrics noted<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n

After the halving that took place<\/a> in April 2024, larger miners were better positioned: they could upgrade to more efficient machines and deploy them in regions with cheaper power. Some big firms, such as Core Scientific, diversified into the high-margin market for AI compute.<\/p>\n

TheMinerMag analysts found<\/a> selling pressure from public mining firms \u2014 March saw the highest coin sales since October 2024.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Fifteen major players \u201coffloaded\u201d more than 40% of their March production in aggregate. HIVE, Bitfarms and Ionic Digital all exceeded 100%.<\/p>\n

Analysts attribute the March shift toward selling to weaker mining revenues with hashprice stuck near lows and rising uncertainty from trade wars.<\/p>\n

CryptoQuant author Axel Adler Jr also linked the current uptick in miner selling to economic pressure from trade tariffs. In his words, this does not look like \u201ccapitulation or panic\u201d.<\/p>\n

\n

Miners are holding up well. Even with the recent price drop, their sentiment is on the rise -a clear sign they still believe in Bitcoin\u2019s long-term potential. <\/p>\n

The current wave of selling looks more like a response to economic pressure from trade tariffs than any sign of\u2026 pic.twitter.com\/t5nVkcKv6Y<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 Axel ?? Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) April 17, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n