{"id":23488,"date":"2025-04-28T18:24:41","date_gmt":"2025-04-28T15:24:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/bernstein-sets-out-the-drivers-of-bitcoins-march-to-1m\/"},"modified":"2025-04-28T18:24:41","modified_gmt":"2025-04-28T15:24:41","slug":"bernstein-sets-out-the-drivers-of-bitcoins-march-to-1m","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/bernstein-sets-out-the-drivers-of-bitcoins-march-to-1m\/","title":{"rendered":"Bernstein sets out the drivers of bitcoin\u2019s march to $1m"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Putative short-term correlations between bitcoin, gold and the Nasdaq are misleading, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theblock.co\/post\/352146\/bernstein-bitcoin-new-highs-corporate-accumulation-etf-supply-squeeze\">The Block<\/a> reported, citing a Bernstein note.<\/p>\n<p>Analysts at the investment firm led by Gautam Chhugani see the following as more accurate indicators:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>a decline in retail selling;<\/li>\n<li>a growing race for corporate accumulation;<\/li>\n<li>renewed inflows into exchange-traded funds.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>All these factors lead to a \u201csupply squeeze\u201d in digital gold that will drive it to new highs, the experts believe.<\/p>\n<p>Last week Cantor Fitzgerald, together with SoftBank, Tether and Bitfinex, <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/twenty-one-capital-aims-to-challenge-bitcoin-giants\">unveiled<\/a> Twenty One Capital, an investment firm focused on accumulating bitcoin. Its initial reserves are expected to be 42,000 BTC. In addition to contributions from the project participants, the vehicle plans to raise $385 million via convertible bonds and $200 million through a share sale ahead of a listing.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u201cTwenty One seeks to replicate Strategy\u2019s bitcoin scenario, albeit with a lower capital base,\u201d Bernstein noted.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Michael Saylor\u2019s company raised about $22 billion in 2024 and another $8.6 billion this year using various financial instruments. Analysts see Twenty One\u2019s advantage in its sponsors \u2014 Tether\u2019s net income last year alone <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/tether-reports-13-billion-in-net-profit\">totalled $13 billion<\/a>.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u201cIn any case, the bitcoin accumulation game is becoming competitive,\u201d the Bernstein specialists stated.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Institutions are accumulating digital gold. Are governments next?<\/h2>\n<p>About 80 public companies currently hold a combined 700,000 BTC \u2014 3.4% of the cryptocurrency\u2019s theoretical issuance of 21 million coins.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/Screenshot-2025-04-28-at-11.webp\" alt=\"Screenshot-2025-04-28-at-11\" class=\"wp-image-257724\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Dynamics of Strategy\u2019s and other companies\u2019 bitcoin reserves. Data: Bernstein.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>After roughly two months of \u201csluggish flows\u201d amid a 31% drop from the all-time high, spot ETF inflows turned positive again from early April. Last week the figure was $3 billion \u2014 the highest in five months, the analysts noted.<\/p>\n<p>Coins held by exchange-traded funds amount to over 5.5% of total supply, equivalent to <span data-descr=\"assets under management\" class=\"old_tooltip\">AUM<\/span> of roughly $109 billion. Institutions account for nearly 33%, compared with 20% in September 2024.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/Screenshot-2025-04-28-at-12.webp\" alt=\"Screenshot-2025-04-28-at-12\" class=\"wp-image-257725\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Breakdown of holdings in spot BTC ETFs. Data: Bernstein.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Among institutions, investment advisers hold 48% of bitcoin-ETF volumes, hedge funds 31%.<\/p>\n<p>In total, nearly 9% of the first cryptocurrency\u2019s supply is held in exchange-traded products and corporate reserves.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>A recent US presidential order to create a bitcoin reserve could be a catalyst for adoption of digital gold beyond institutions and corporations, Bernstein\u2019s experts believe.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Although the current momentum from corporate accumulation alone could push it to new highs in 2025, potential purchases by the US government are not priced in, they emphasized.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">BTC exchange supply is shrinking<\/h2>\n<p>Bitcoin balances on exchanges have fallen to 13% of total supply from 16% at the end of 2023. But given the price increase over this period, the dollar value of coins held on trading platforms has actually risen, Bernstein acknowledged.<\/p>\n<p>The co-founder and CEO of Satoshi Action Fund called shrinking exchange bitcoin balances a bullish signal. But analyst James Check, known as Checkmate, disputed that indicator.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Oh, we&#39;ve seen it before.<\/p>\n<p>Engagement farming with exchange balances is so 2021.<\/p>\n<p>Hop on the M2 supply wagon instead. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/kmbFrokEvH\">https:\/\/t.co\/kmbFrokEvH<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 _Checkmate ??\u26a1\u2622\ufe0f?\ufe0f (@_Checkmatey_) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/_Checkmatey_\/status\/1916273057267912906?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">April 26, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>In his view, what is often taken for outflows from platforms is the movement of assets between wallets for various reasons. Check believes it is more relevant to track global money supply \u2014 aggregate M2. Earlier, Bitwise <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/bitwise-identifies-bitcoin-growth-drivers-for-q2\">noted<\/a> that growth in the metric \u201chas historically been a favorable condition\u201d for risk assets such as bitcoin.<\/p>\n<p>Bernstein analysts forecast that by the end of 2025 the cryptocurrency will reach the peak of the current cycle around $200,000. With inevitable bear phases, they expect $500,000 by 2030 and $1 million by the end of 2033.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u201cIn the long term, we believe that bitcoin\u2019s fundamentals are determined by its own demand trajectory and the mathematically proven unchanging supply of 21 million coins. Today 19.9 million BTC have been mined, and of the remaining 1.1 million almost 95% will be generated over the next 10 years,\u201d the company\u2019s specialists emphasized.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Traders expect a correction before the uptrend resumes<\/h2>\n<p>Several analysts think bitcoin will test established support before a rally to fresh highs.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24BTC&#038;src=ctag&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$BTC<\/a> Sunday update:<\/p>\n<p>Interesting week ahead with earnings reports from Meta, Amazon &amp; Apple, but also PCE inflation data and labour market data.<\/p>\n<p>I&#39;ll keep de-risking my swing long trade from $77k by continue taking profits in this current zone. Spot bags are fine.<\/p>\n<p>?\u2193 (1\/4): <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/VK3jjseTtP\">pic.twitter.com\/VK3jjseTtP<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 CrypNuevo ? (@CrypNuevo) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/CrypNuevo\/status\/1916583081986699564?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">April 27, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u201cIt\u2019s very simple \u2014 I don\u2019t yet see momentum resuming. It is quite possible that we will see a third stage of growth to $97,000, when certain liquidity appears,\u201d wrote the crypto trader known as CrypNuevo.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>He also allowed for a retest of the 50-day exponential moving average on the four-hour timeframe, which stands at $91,850.<\/p>\n<p>An independent analyst under the pseudonym Roman <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/Roman_Trading\/status\/1916691660895109202\">expects<\/a> a deeper pullback \u2014 to $88,000. He cited the stochastic RSI indicator, signalling overbought conditions.<\/p>\n<p>YouTube blogger Matthew Hyland <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/MatthewHyland_\/status\/1916693402969673729\">agreed<\/a> with Roman, but noted that a rise to $99,500 could precede the drop.<\/p>\n<p>A trader known as Skew pointed to investor \u201cindecision\u201d behind the current price action. He recommended focusing on the $90,000-92,000 range.<\/p>\n<p>At the time of writing bitcoin is trading<a href=\"https:\/\/www.coingecko.com\/\"> around $94,500<\/a>. Over the past 24 hours the price has barely changed.<\/p>\n<p>The crypto fear and greed index sits in neutral at 54, though on April 23 the reading reached 72.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/Crypto-Fear-Greed-Index-Bitcoin-Sentiment-Alternative.me-Google-Chrome-7.webp\" alt=\"Crypto-Fear-Greed-Index-Bitcoin-Sentiment-Alternative.me-Google-Chrome-7\" class=\"wp-image-257726\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Data: <a href=\"https:\/\/alternative.me\/crypto\/fear-and-greed-index\/\">Alternative<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>ARK Invest has forecast the leading cryptocurrency could rise <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/ark-invest-predicts-bitcoin-surge-to-2-4-million-by-2030\">to $2.4 million<\/a> by the end of 2030 amid adoption by institutions and sovereign wealth funds.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Putative short-term correlations between bitcoin, gold and the Nasdaq are misleading, The Block reported, citing a Bernstein note. Analysts at the investment firm led by Gautam Chhugani see the following as more accurate indicators: a decline in retail selling; a growing race for corporate accumulation; renewed inflows into exchange-traded funds. All these factors lead to [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":23487,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"","news_style_id":"","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[1643,1146,1150],"class_list":["post-23488","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-bernstein","tag-cryptocurrency-market-forecasts","tag-news-plus"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"29","promo_type":"","layout_type":"","short_excerpt":"","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23488","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=23488"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23488\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/23487"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=23488"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=23488"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=23488"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}