{"id":24525,"date":"2025-06-05T10:43:01","date_gmt":"2025-06-05T07:43:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/experts-assess-bitcoins-risks-and-potential-for-investors\/"},"modified":"2025-06-05T10:43:01","modified_gmt":"2025-06-05T07:43:01","slug":"experts-assess-bitcoins-risks-and-potential-for-investors","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/experts-assess-bitcoins-risks-and-potential-for-investors\/","title":{"rendered":"Experts assess bitcoin\u2019s risks and potential for investors"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"wp-block-text-wrappers-keypoints article_keypoints\">\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Analysts urged companies to revisit their strategies and brace for a sharp crypto-market correction.<\/li>\n<li>Bitwise said that a moderate allocation to bitcoin (up to 5\u201310% of a portfolio) can boost investment returns.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<p>Economist and author of The Bitcoin Standard Saifedean Ammous said the first cryptocurrency is nearing the top of its bull cycle. After that, the asset could fall by 80%, he said.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>He advised companies investing in bitcoin to prepare for such a scenario.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u201cShaky ground\u201d<\/h2>\n<p>The expert stressed that the digital gold is on \u201cvery shaky ground\u201d. Ammous urged corporate investors to revisit their strategies if their business models would not withstand such stress.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cI think we are approaching a very shaky top and a subsequent drop,\u201d he emphasized.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Historically, the bitcoin price peak has arrived 12\u201318 months after <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/a-year-after-bitcoins-halving-why-is-this-time-different\">the halving<\/a>, he said. Ammous allowed that the price could still rise to $200,000 in the current cycle. However, he noted that since the bottom the asset has already gained more than 600%.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>TV host and Heisenberg Capital founder Max Keiser also questioned whether new corporate entrants can withstand bitcoin\u2019s typical bear\u2011market volatility.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Strategy?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@Strategy<\/a> clones have not been tested in a bear market.<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/saylor?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@saylor<\/a> never sold, and just kept buying, even when his BTC position was under water. <\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s foolish to think the new Bitcoin Treasury <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Strategy?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@Strategy<\/a> clones will have the same discipline.<\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Max Keiser (@maxkeiser) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/maxkeiser\/status\/1928629075947491563?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 31, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>He cited Strategy founder Michael Saylor, who kept buying the first cryptocurrency even during drawdowns. He doubted that his followers will show the same discipline.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Rethink strategy<\/h2>\n<p><span data-descr=\"chief investment officer\" class=\"old_tooltip\">CIO<\/span> Bitwise Matt Hougan <a href=\"https:\/\/experts.bitwiseinvestments.com\/cio-memos\/more-return-with-less-risk\">urged<\/a> investors to rethink how bitcoin fits into traditional portfolios. In his view, such a rethink can raise returns while reducing risk.<\/p>\n<p>Hougan stressed that bitcoin should not be added in isolation. It should be considered in the context of an investor\u2019s overall risk budget.<\/p>\n<p>Bitcoin is known for high volatility\u2014three to four times the swings of the S&amp;P 500. Yet its low correlation with equities and bonds allows it to improve overall portfolio metrics, Hougan said.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">5% in bitcoin<\/h2>\n<p>As an example, the Bitwise CIO cited data from 2017 to 2024. Allocating 5% of a portfolio to bitcoin (by trimming equities to 57% and bonds to 38%) lifted cumulative returns from 107% to 207%. Volatility rose only slightly\u2014from 11.3% to 12.5%.<\/p>\n<p>Hougan acknowledged that many market participants manage their personal portfolios differently. They often prefer so\u2011called barbelled structures: large allocations to cryptocurrencies and to fiat or money\u2011market funds, with only a minimal share for other assets.<\/p>\n<p>According to the expert, if an investor devotes 5% to bitcoin and simultaneously increases the share of bonds by 5%, that would theoretically reduce equity risk. Historical data show that such a comprehensive adjustment would have delivered higher returns than a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/b\/balancedfund.asp\">standard 60\/40 portfolio<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Hougan emphasized that further optimization\u2014say, a portfolio of 40% equities, 50% bonds and 10% bitcoin\u2014could produce even higher returns and lower risk compared with the initial example (simply adding 5% BTC).<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/Snimok-ekrana-2025-06-05-095241.webp\" alt=\"Snimok-ekrana-2025-06-05-095241\" class=\"wp-image-259993\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Performance of a traditional portfolio adjusted for bitcoin. Source: Bitwise.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>In May, Bernstein experts <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/bernstein-forecasts-corporate-bitcoin-holdings-to-reach-330-billion\">predicted<\/a> that companies\u2019 holdings of the first cryptocurrency would rise to $330 billion by 2029.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Later, Standard Chartered <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/standard-chartered-assesses-corporate-bitcoin-strategys-impact-on-digital-gold\">assessed<\/a> the impact of corporate bitcoin strategies on digital gold.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Analysts urged companies to revisit their strategies and brace for a sharp crypto-market correction. Bitwise said that a moderate allocation to bitcoin (up to 5\u201310% of a portfolio) can boost investment returns. Economist and author of The Bitcoin Standard Saifedean Ammous said the first cryptocurrency is nearing the top of its bull cycle. After that, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":24524,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"","news_style_id":"","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[1538,1641,949,1150,1138,1799],"class_list":["post-24525","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-bitcoin-purchase","tag-bitcoin-reserves","tag-bitwise","tag-news-plus","tag-opinions","tag-saifedean-ammous"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"187","promo_type":"","layout_type":"","short_excerpt":"","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24525","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=24525"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24525\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/24524"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=24525"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=24525"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=24525"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}