{"id":25191,"date":"2025-07-09T10:52:13","date_gmt":"2025-07-09T07:52:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/analyst-predicts-a-very-favorable-period-for-bitcoin\/"},"modified":"2025-07-09T10:52:13","modified_gmt":"2025-07-09T07:52:13","slug":"analyst-predicts-a-very-favorable-period-for-bitcoin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/analyst-predicts-a-very-favorable-period-for-bitcoin\/","title":{"rendered":"Analyst Predicts a &#8216;Very Favorable&#8217; Period for Bitcoin"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The extremely low dollar index (DXY) alongside the historical peak of the US national debt should serve as &#8220;fuel&#8221; for a rally in the leading cryptocurrency, according to CryptoQuant contributor known as Darkfost.<\/p>\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/telegram.org\/js\/telegram-widget.js?22\" data-telegram-post=\"cryptoquant_official\/3084\" data-width=\"100%\" data-single><\/script><\/p>\n<p>According to his observations, the DXY is trading 6.5 points below the 200-day moving average.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\"><p>\n<cite>&#8220;This is the largest deviation in 21 years,&#8221; emphasized Darkfost.<\/cite><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/debt.webp\" alt=\"debt\" class=\"wp-image-261577\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">US national debt and other macro indicators. Data: <a href=\"https:\/\/usdebtclock.org\/\">US Debt Clock<\/a>.\u00a0<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The analyst noted that such dynamics, &#8220;despite appearing alarming,&#8221; usually benefit risky assets like Bitcoin. He stated that in traditional finance, a correlation has long been observed: when the dollar weakens and &#8220;loses its appeal as a safe-haven asset,&#8221; investors reassess their portfolios and shift capital into alternative instruments.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/M2-1.webp\" alt=\"M2-1\" class=\"wp-image-261578\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Growth dynamics of the M2 money supply against the backdrop of the &#8220;barometer of the American economy&#8221; \u2014 the S&#038;P 500 index. Data: <a href=\"https:\/\/streetstats.finance\/liquidity\/money\">StreetStats<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The chart provided by Darkfost &#8220;illustrates this phenomenon,&#8221; showing periods when the DXY trades below its 365-day moving average.\u00a0<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\"><p>\n<cite>&#8220;Historical data shows \u2014 such periods have been favorable for Bitcoin. Currently, the dollar index is weakened, which could support a new BTC rally, although the price has yet to react,&#8221; noted the researcher.\u00a0<\/cite><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>He added that the aforementioned tool allows for the recognition of early stages of a bullish trend and moments of euphoria &#8220;not so much through technical signals, but by reflecting the inflow of liquidity into the crypto market.&#8221;<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">A Rare Occurrence<\/h2>\n<p>The share of long-term Bitcoin holders (<span data-descr=\"long-term holders\" class=\"old_tooltip\">LTH<\/span>) has reached 80% of the total coins in circulation. This could signal a potential new growth phase if the previous scenario repeats. This group includes investors holding the asset for at least 155 days.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"705\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/LTH_supply-1024x705.jpg\" alt=\"LTH_supply\" class=\"wp-image-261588\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/LTH_supply-1024x705.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/LTH_supply-300x206.jpg 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/LTH_supply-768x528.jpg 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/LTH_supply-1536x1057.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/LTH_supply.jpg 1600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Dynamics of long-term investors&#8217; supply volume. Data: Bitcoin Magazine Pro, <a href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/bitcoin-price-rallied-72-84-the-last-two-times-btc-hodlers-did-this\">Cointelegraph<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Previously, such levels were reached only twice \u2014 in February and October 2024. Following this, the price of the leading cryptocurrency rose by 72% and 84%, respectively.<\/p>\n<p>In absolute terms, the LTH supply volume reached a historical high of 14.7 million BTC (about $1.6 trillion) on June 5.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/Total-Supply-HELD-by-LTH-1024x576.jpg\" alt=\"Total-Supply-HELD-by-LTH\" class=\"wp-image-261590\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/Total-Supply-HELD-by-LTH-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/Total-Supply-HELD-by-LTH-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/Total-Supply-HELD-by-LTH-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/Total-Supply-HELD-by-LTH.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Dynamics of LTH supply volume in absolute terms. Data: Glassnode, Cointelegraph.\u00a0<br \/><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\"><p>\n<cite>&#8220;Amid stable purchases by institutions, the growing share of illiquid supply enhances Bitcoin&#8217;s upward potential with increasing demand,&#8221; noted Cointelegraph analysts.<\/cite><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Crypto analyst known as CrediBULL <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/CredibleCrypto\/status\/1942450591965327428\">believes<\/a> that with long-term holders dominating the supply structure of digital gold, even a small surge in excitement could trigger a rapid price increase.<\/p>\n<p>According to him, the &#8220;excess&#8221; volume has once again ended up in the hands of those who are not in a hurry to sell. Companies with Bitcoin on their balance sheets play a leading role in this process.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>He also does not rule out that the approaching &#8220;powerful market impulse&#8221; could surpass the previous two \u2014 the rate could reach $150,000.<\/p>\n<p>Analyst Omkar Godbole <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/bitcoins-long-term-resistance-levels-identified-at-115000-and-223000\">highlighted<\/a> long-term resistance levels for the current market phase \u2014 $115,000 and $223,000.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The extremely low dollar index (DXY) alongside the historical peak of the US national debt should serve as &#8220;fuel&#8221; for a rally in the leading cryptocurrency, according to CryptoQuant contributor known as Darkfost.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":25190,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"","news_style_id":"","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[1224,1145],"class_list":["post-25191","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-macroeconomics","tag-market-analysis"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"18","promo_type":"","layout_type":"","short_excerpt":"","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25191","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=25191"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25191\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/25190"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=25191"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=25191"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=25191"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}