ForkLog examined how, in just a decade, AI moved from a futurist project to a part of daily reality for armed forces worldwide, who leads the new arms race and where the militarisation of neural networks may lead.<\/p>\n
How artificial intelligence became a weapon<\/h2>\n
In the early 2000s, America\u2019s DARPA<\/span> began experimenting with autonomous systems that allowed machines not just to execute commands but to make decisions on the battlefield. Prototypes such as Crusher\u2014a six\u2011ton reconnaissance robot\u2014could traverse rough terrain without human input. In parallel, trials were run with the ARSS automatic sniper drone. These efforts laid early foundations for military AI.<\/p>\n In April 2017, the U.S. Department of Defense launched Project Maven<\/a>, a large\u2011scale programme to bring AI to combat. Its task was to analyse drone video feeds with machine\u2011learning algorithms. Development raced ahead; within months the technology was added to Predator and Reaper drones.\u00a0<\/p>\n Inside the industry, this caused shock. Thousands of Google employees\u2014the project\u2019s main partner\u2014signed<\/a> a petition against participation in military initiatives; dozens of engineers resigned. In 2018 the company formally declined to continue.<\/p>\n During the Second Karabakh war<\/span> Azerbaijan widely used<\/a> Turkish Bayraktar TB2 and Israeli Harop UAVs, as well as experimental Kargu\u20112 loitering munitions. These systems incorporated elements of autonomy, such as aiming, vehicle recognition and target tracking. The precise degree of independent decision\u2011making, including the ability to strike without an operator, has not been disclosed and remains a matter of expert assessment and conjecture. Even so, the conflict showcased broad deployment of AI\u2011enabled unmanned systems.<\/p>\n China, meanwhile, is pushing a strategy of military\u2011civil fusion<\/a>, knitting together the defence sector, academia and technology giants. Investment focuses on autonomous systems for monitoring, interception, reconnaissance and maritime operations. The central wager is to make AI not just a weapon but a key infrastructure layer of a modern military.<\/p>\n Israel took a parallel course. Since 2021 its military has actively deployed<\/a> AI systems to automate targeting in Gaza. Algorithms analysed<\/a> vast data\u2014phone calls, movements, digital activity\u2014to help generate target lists. Systems dubbed Lavender and Gospel were used in large\u2011scale operations in 2023. That drew international criticism, with rights groups and the UN questioning the legality of strikes based on AI recommendations.\u00a0<\/p>\n The true war of algorithms began in 2022 with Russia\u2019s full\u2011scale invasion of Ukraine. From then on AI became an active participant in combat. American firm Palantir provided<\/a> Ukraine with tactical platforms for intelligence analysis and strike planning.<\/p>\n At the same time, Ukrainian start\u2011ups including Gogol Brain developed AI modules for drones, including semi\u2011autonomous FPV<\/a> craft capable of identifying targets and operating amid electronic warfare. AI shifted from helper tool to the core of reconnaissance\u2011strike systems.\u00a0<\/p>\n Russia uses Iranian Shahed\u2011136s, modified for greater accuracy and resilience to electronic interference. Some sources report possible AI integration in these drones, though there is no official confirmation.\u00a0<\/p>\n By 2025, the world no longer debates whether AI will become a weapon\u2014it already is. Taiwan launched<\/a> a national programme to produce 25,000 AI\u2011navigated FPV drones, building a layered, autonomous defence against a potential Chinese invasion.\u00a0<\/p>\n India, mindful of rising tensions along the borders with China and Pakistan, has also begun to deploy<\/a> AI in security systems. Since 2022, roughly 140\u2013145 AI\u2011enabled surveillance platforms have been fielded, combining cameras, thermal imagers, radars and drones for facial recognition.\u00a0<\/p>\n In scarcely a decade, AI has evolved from software that parses video to autonomous weapons that scout, select targets and, not infrequently, pull the trigger. A new era has begun\u2014and it will not be halted.<\/p>\n Pinning down how much militaries spend\u2014especially on AI\u2014is near impossible: most programmes are classified. Open sources, however, sketch the outlines.<\/p>\n Global defence\u2011AI market size<\/strong><\/p>\n The global military\u2011AI market was estimated at $4.8bn in 2022 and $9.3bn in 2024. Under the most conservative scenario<\/a>, it could reach $13bn\u2013$19bn by 2030; a moderate path suggests $25bn\u2013$30bn; in the event of further global escalation, $35bn\u2013$40bn and above. As much as 50% of funding may flow through the private sector: start\u2011ups, venture capital and big tech.\u00a0<\/p>\n United States<\/strong><\/p>\n America currently leads the race in defence AI, thanks in part to the Pentagon\u2019s deep ties with major tech firms: Palantir, Anduril, Shield AI and Scale AI have secured contracts worth billions. In 2023 the Department of Defense created Task Force Lima to develop and field generative AI, and launched the expansive Replicator programme.<\/p>\n The Pentagon\u2019s AI\u2011technology budget rose from $600 in 2018 to $1.8bn in 2024, while total military\u2011AI outlays are estimated at $4bn\u2013$6bn annually.\u00a0<\/p>\nHow much is invested in \u201csmart\u201d war?<\/h2>\n
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