{"id":25689,"date":"2025-07-30T14:36:31","date_gmt":"2025-07-30T11:36:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/researchers-link-cryptocurrency-market-risks-to-the-us-dollar\/"},"modified":"2025-07-30T14:36:31","modified_gmt":"2025-07-30T11:36:31","slug":"researchers-link-cryptocurrency-market-risks-to-the-us-dollar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/researchers-link-cryptocurrency-market-risks-to-the-us-dollar\/","title":{"rendered":"Researchers Link Cryptocurrency Market Risks to the US Dollar"},"content":{"rendered":"

The price of the leading cryptocurrency remains stuck between support at $116,000 and resistance around $120,000. Ethereum’s momentum is also waning as it approaches the psychological mark of $4,000, according to analysts at QCP Capital<\/a>.<\/p>\n

In their view, there is a strong likelihood of new all-time highs in the medium term, driven by institutional capital inflows and positive regulatory changes.<\/p>\n

Analysts noted that companies like Strategy and SharpLink Gaming<\/a> continue to raise funds to purchase Bitcoin and Ethereum, indicating long-term confidence in the asset.<\/p>\n

The total daily net inflow into ETH-ETF stands at $218.64 million.<\/p>\n

\"Researchers
Dynamics of inflows into ETH-ETF. Source: SoSoValue<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

However, in the short term, experts urged caution. The market is reacting weakly to positive news, including the adoption<\/a> of crypto-friendly legislation in the US and progress in the ETF space. A lack of growth amid good news often signals market exhaustion and is typical behavior in the late stage of a cycle, experts emphasized.<\/p>\n

Threat from the Dollar<\/h2>\n

The primary macroeconomic risk, analysts say, is linked to the US dollar. Most traders are betting on its weakening by opening short positions. According to the CFTC<\/span>, the number of such positions has reached extreme levels.<\/p>\n

This situation makes the market vulnerable to a short squeeze. If the dollar’s value begins to rise, traders will be forced to close losing trades en masse. This could trigger a retreat from risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, analysts explained.<\/p>\n

In the near term, attention will focus on US inflation and employment data, which will determine market development in the third quarter. At the July meeting of the Fed<\/span>, analysts expect the key rate to remain unchanged. The regulator is likely to emphasize its data-dependent decision-making. The September meeting will be crucial, with balanced chances for a rate cut.<\/p>\n

The majority (97.5%) of market participants expect the rate to remain unchanged following the July 30 meeting.<\/p>\n

\"Researchers
Source: CME FedWatch Tool<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Bitcoin’s Potential Drop to $110,000<\/h2>\n

Analysts at Glassnode suggested<\/a> a correction of Bitcoin to $110,000 to test key support. The reason could be a “price gap” without significant trading volume at this level.<\/p>\n

Experts explained that during the rapid price increase from $110,000 to $115,000, investors had little time to buy. As a result, a zone without strong support based on asset acquisition price was formed.<\/p>\n

\n

“Below the current spot price remains an ‘air pocket’ of volume from $115,000 to $110,000. This is the result of the price passing through the range without transaction opportunities,” the report states.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

\"Researchers
Source: Glassnode.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Glassnode believes the market may test the zone in search of support. Although such gaps are not always filled, they create a “pull” for the price.<\/p>\n

Analysts used the cost basis of short-term holders to determine potential support levels. These levels also help identify prices at which investors might start taking profits.<\/p>\n

Using standard deviation, Glassnode forecasted a possible local high around $140,000 if growth resumes.<\/p>\n

\"Researchers
Source: Glassnode.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
\n

“If the market breaks higher, $141,000 will likely become the next major resistance zone, where selling pressure could quickly intensify,” the company concluded.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Experts at Fairlead Strategies predicted<\/a> a rise in the leading cryptocurrency to $135,000, followed by a correction.<\/p>\n

Later, CoinDesk analyst Omkar Godbole warned<\/a> of the exhaustion of Bitcoin’s bullish momentum.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The price of the leading cryptocurrency remains stuck between support at $116,000 and resistance around $120,000. Ethereum’s momentum is also waning as it approaches the psychological mark of $4,000, according to analysts at QCP Capital. In their view, there is a strong likelihood of new all-time highs in the medium term, driven by institutional capital […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":25688,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"","news_style_id":"","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[18,46,1273,1326],"class_list":["post-25689","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-bitcoin","tag-ethereum","tag-glassnode","tag-qcp-capital"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"26","promo_type":"","layout_type":"","short_excerpt":"","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25689","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=25689"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25689\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/25688"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=25689"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=25689"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=25689"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}