{"id":26261,"date":"2025-08-20T09:55:02","date_gmt":"2025-08-20T06:55:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=26261"},"modified":"2025-08-22T17:37:45","modified_gmt":"2025-08-22T14:37:45","slug":"harvard-economist-admits-error-in-bitcoin-forecast","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/harvard-economist-admits-error-in-bitcoin-forecast\/","title":{"rendered":"Harvard Economist Admits Error in Bitcoin Forecast"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Kenneth Rogoff, a Harvard professor and former chief economist at the <span data-descr=\"International Monetary Fund\" class=\"old_tooltip\">IMF<\/span>, has acknowledged that his pessimistic forecast for Bitcoin was mistaken. In 2018, he claimed that digital gold was more likely to fall to $100 than reach $100,000.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Almost a decade ago I was the Harvard economist that said that bitcoin was more likely to be worth $100 than 100k. What did I miss? I was far too optimistic about the US coming to its senses about sensible cryptocurrency regulation; why would policymakers want to facilitate tax\u2026<\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Kenneth S Rogoff (@krogoff) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/krogoff\/status\/1957825957684716008?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">August 19, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>He believed that strict regulation of the industry in the US would crash the price of the first cryptocurrency. Rogoff did not foresee that in 2024 a crypto-friendly administration would come to power in the country.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Following Donald Trump&#8217;s victory in the US presidential election in November, Bitcoin broke through the $100,000 level and <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/bitcoin-hits-a-record-above-124000\">reached<\/a> a new all-time high of $124,128.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>At the time of writing, the crypto asset is trading at $113,620.\u00a0<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/AD_4nXcXXSLSfmbwTnNWNiCVM979gJTVgsJGfnY7gydXiTNpVgDu99VZvXVsy6ZzZKXcwWWoTKPZMMLPAd3A3l9l8bDxtX-o_WauBkVqsuXefr3xSD2gKqUoMM2tMVfsiAK0GuOawF3s_Q.webp\" alt=\"Harvard Economist Admits Error in Bitcoin Forecast\" class=\"wp-image-264210\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Daily chart of BTC\/USD on Binance. Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/chart\/?symbol=COINBASE%3ABTCUSD\">TradingView<\/a>.\u00a0<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The economist also did not expect Bitcoin to become a competitor to fiat currencies in the global shadow economy, valued at $20 trillion.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>However, in 2024, the volume of illegal operations with digital assets amounted to $50 billion. This is less than 1% of the amounts laundered using cash.\u00a0<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/AD_4nXdb_1U07l9102cQK02aGIj_29uwDvmrFjwLBqYaNshWx1BX-ItvWiqciXh1V-fKZukL4-1lKymSzo8dIKxSjgsLWzP9oTQXD4GYFewlx91UVyCU8LXF9LRFf3oG7N4fjJVTkFij-Q.webp\" alt=\"Harvard Economist Admits Error in Bitcoin Forecast\" class=\"wp-image-264211\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Share of crypto transactions in illegal financial operations. Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.chainalysis.com\/blog\/2025-crypto-crime-report-introduction\/\">Chainalysis<\/a>.\u00a0<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u201cThirdly, I did not anticipate that regulators, especially the main one, could hold hundreds of millions (if not billions) of dollars in cryptocurrencies with impunity, despite the glaring conflict of interest,\u201d Rogoff added.\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Community Reaction\u00a0<\/h2>\n<p>Rogoff&#8217;s fundamental stance on cryptocurrencies remains unchanged, but representatives of the crypto industry viewed his statement as a victory. Bitwise&#8217;s Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan noted that Rogoff still failed to appreciate the technology&#8217;s potential.\u00a0<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">You missed: Failed to imagine that a decentralized project, which drew power from people and not centralized institutions, could succeed at scale. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/HLidOOKXUu\">https:\/\/t.co\/HLidOOKXUu<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Matt Hougan (@Matt_Hougan) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Matt_Hougan\/status\/1957907585396285930?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">August 19, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u201cYou missed: Failed to imagine that a decentralized project, which drew power from people and not centralized institutions, could succeed at scale,\u201d he wrote.\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, sarcastically pointed out that Rogoff had disabled comments on his Bitcoin post.\u00a0<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Maybe you missed it because you live in an echo chamber, same as when you lock replies. <br \/>Fundamentals matter: fiat debasement, demographic wealth shifts, and global demand for a neutral reserve asset. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/rkMQ9MFWsE\">https:\/\/t.co\/rkMQ9MFWsE<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/ReZBiUvOVC\">pic.twitter.com\/ReZBiUvOVC<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 matthew sigel, recovering CFA (@matthew_sigel) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/matthew_sigel\/status\/1957901962864980393?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">August 19, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u201cMaybe you missed it because you live in an echo chamber, same as when you lock replies. Fundamentals matter: fiat debasement, demographic wealth shifts, and global demand for a neutral reserve asset,\u201d the expert noted.\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Meanwhile, analyst David Lavant from FalconX <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/dlawant\/status\/1957927264886353926\">stated<\/a> that he was \u201cvery grateful\u201d to Rogoff because his book \u201cThe Curse of Cash\u201d was \u201cso terrible that it was one of the reasons that pushed him towards Bitcoin.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Earlier, on August 9, two of the most prestigious US educational institutions \u2014 Harvard and Brown University \u2014 <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/us-universities-expand-bitcoin-holdings-via-etfs\">reported<\/a> purchasing Bitcoin through an ETF.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Kenneth Rogoff, a Harvard professor, admitted that his pessimistic 2018 Bitcoin forecast was mistaken.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":26262,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"However, his pessimistic stance on cryptocurrencies remains unchanged.","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[18,36,26],"class_list":["post-26261","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-bitcoin","tag-regulation","tag-usa"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"162","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"However, his pessimistic stance on cryptocurrencies remains unchanged.","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26261","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=26261"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26261\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":26263,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26261\/revisions\/26263"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/26262"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=26261"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=26261"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=26261"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}