{"id":26387,"date":"2025-08-22T14:03:47","date_gmt":"2025-08-22T11:03:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=26387"},"modified":"2025-08-22T17:59:04","modified_gmt":"2025-08-22T14:59:04","slug":"options-market-signals-potential-bitcoin-decline","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/options-market-signals-potential-bitcoin-decline\/","title":{"rendered":"Options Market Signals Potential Bitcoin Decline"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Certain derivatives metrics suggest the digital asset market may be shifting towards a bearish trend, analysts at <a href=\"https:\/\/www.coindesk.com\/markets\/2025\/08\/21\/key-bitcoin-indicators-hint-at-bearish-regime-shift-as-jackson-hole-nears\">CoinDesk<\/a> note.<\/p>\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\n<p>One such indicator is the 180-day imbalance between bitcoin <span data-descr=\"a contract that gives the right to buy an asset at a fixed price in the future\" class=\"old_tooltip\">call<\/span> and <span data-descr=\"a contract that gives the right to sell an asset at a fixed price in the future\" class=\"old_tooltip\">put<\/span> options, calculated using trading data from Deribit, the largest crypto derivatives exchange.<\/p>\n<p>At the time of writing, the indicator stood at -0.42, according to Amberdata. This is the lowest level since June 2023. A negative imbalance suggests traders favour put options, often used as a hedge against price declines. This situation can be seen as a sign of market participants&#8217; caution or growing bearish sentiment over the medium term.<\/p>\n<p>Imran Lakha, founder of Options Insights, believes that a shift towards puts is often perceived as a change in the &#8220;market regime.&#8221;<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24BTC&#038;src=ctag&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$BTC<\/a> longer dated skew flipping into put premium could be a sign of regime shift. <\/p>\n<p>Keeping a close eye on this\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/XTDT0i0SRn\">pic.twitter.com\/XTDT0i0SRn<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Imran Lakha | Options Insight (@options_insight) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/options_insight\/status\/1957770854579749004?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">August 19, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>The negative value can be seen as a trend break: for two years, the indicator remained in the &#8220;green zone,&#8221; indicating a preference for bullish call options.<\/p>\n<p>Bitcoin has declined only about 9% from its all-time high above $124,000, recorded <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/bitcoin-hits-a-record-above-124000\">about a week ago<\/a>. However, investors&#8217; &#8220;long-term&#8221; sentiment has already shifted into &#8220;bearish territory.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Lakha noted that the focus on puts has become more pronounced amid the price correction.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>&#8220;Bitcoin shows no call option premium until March 2026. The price drop triggered purchases of August and September puts with a strike around $110,000. Calls and their spreads are being sold as longs reduce risks ahead of <span data-descr=\"Jerome Powell \u2014 Chairman of the Federal Reserve System\" class=\"old_tooltip\">Powell&#8217;s<\/span> speech in Jackson Hole on Friday,&#8221; the expert noted.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Most market participants expect the monetary regulator to signal the start of policy easing in September. If these expectations are confirmed, a correction is possible, noted Nansen analyst Nikolai Sondergaard.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>&#8220;At this stage, the market generally expects rate cuts, and this is largely priced in. If Powell gives the expected signal, crypto may enter a sideways trend or show a slight decline \u2014 a classic <span data-descr=\"'sell the news'\" class=\"old_tooltip\">sell the news<\/span> dynamic. Conversely, if the <span data-descr=\"Federal Reserve System\" class=\"old_tooltip\">Fed<\/span> indicates a deeper or faster rate-cutting cycle than anticipated, it could spark new demand for risk and lay the foundation for the next bullish impulse,&#8221; the analyst shared.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>According to Greeks.live, options expired on August 22:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>34,000 BTC ($3.82 billion) with a put\/call ratio of 1.3 and <span data-descr=\"Max Pain \u2014 the price level at which option holders incur the greatest losses at expiration\" class=\"old_tooltip\">&#8220;Max Pain&#8221;<\/span> at $118,000;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>220,000 ETH ($950 million) with a put\/call ratio of 0.82 and Max Pain at $4,250.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">\u3010August 22 Options Data\u3011 <br \/>34,000 BTC options expired, with a Put-Call Ratio of 1.3, a Maxpain point of $118,000, and a notional value of $3.82 billion. <br \/>220,000 ETH options expired, with a Put-Call Ratio of 0.82, a Maxpain point of $4,250, and a notional value of $950\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/bE30O6ZvGr\">pic.twitter.com\/bE30O6ZvGr<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Greeks.live (@GreeksLive) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/GreeksLive\/status\/1958781007882297603?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">August 22, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Thus, short-term contracts based on the leading cryptocurrency indicated bearish sentiment; Ethereum supporters are more optimistic.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>&#8220;The options market shows divergence, but factors pointing to future volatility still prevail,&#8221; explained Greeks.live analysts.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Another Bearish Signal<\/h2>\n<p>Another signal of a potential shift to a bearish trend came from the Guppy Multiple Moving Average (GMMA) indicator.<\/p>\n<p>The tool, developed by Australian trader Daryl Guppy, is used to identify reversals and assess trend strength. It is based on the analysis of ranges or bands formed by short- and long-term moving averages (MA).<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"503\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/Guppy-1024x503.png\" alt=\"Guppy\" class=\"wp-image-264418\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/Guppy-1024x503.png 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/Guppy-300x147.png 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/Guppy-768x377.png 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/Guppy-1536x755.png 1536w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/Guppy-2048x1006.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Daily Bitcoin chart and GMMA. Source: TradingView, CoinDesk.\u00a0<br \/><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The chart above shows that the price of bitcoin has fallen below the cluster of MAs. This indicates a weakening of bullish positions, a possible long-term shift to bearish sentiment, likely increased selling pressure, and thus the risk of a significant price decline.<\/p>\n<p>Back in April, Capriole founder Charles Edwards <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/expert-predicts-a-large-scale-bitcoin-sell-off\">suggested<\/a> a massive bitcoin sell-off amid declining corporate demand.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Certain derivatives metrics suggest the digital asset market may be shifting towards a bearish trend.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":26388,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"Certain derivatives metrics suggest the digital asset market may be shifting towards a bearish trend.","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[480,1168,1145],"class_list":["post-26387","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-crypto-derivatives","tag-market-analysis"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"185","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"Certain derivatives metrics suggest the digital asset market may be shifting towards a bearish trend.","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26387","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=26387"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26387\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":26389,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26387\/revisions\/26389"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/26388"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=26387"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=26387"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=26387"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}