{"id":28389,"date":"2025-08-27T11:23:23","date_gmt":"2025-08-27T08:23:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=28389"},"modified":"2025-08-27T11:25:14","modified_gmt":"2025-08-27T08:25:14","slug":"analyst-proposes-bitcoin-cycle-model-independent-of-halving","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/analyst-proposes-bitcoin-cycle-model-independent-of-halving\/","title":{"rendered":"Analyst Proposes Bitcoin Cycle Model Independent of Halving"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Throughout its history, the first cryptocurrency has undergone three cycles, which are not linked to network halving. This was <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/_Checkmatey_\/status\/1960459119053431214\">stated<\/a> by on-chain analyst James Check.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh7-qw.googleusercontent.com\/docsz\/AD_4nXfmV_4Ew-1NIOsxw9ifPhOSBn53v3ixpULNGzOqLSeMIIT_HlWA1hEvnwVr-LCuin0GM9anskecaP-H_OaeMGHmRJBLTpzbwrvfNzBoQV9d2g_M9sUttqloUfarGDaEXj2VOJms4Q?key=sjWrl1bH7Im515u5Z47kKw\" alt=\"Analyst Proposes Bitcoin Cycle Model Independent of Halving\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Source: X.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>In his view, the pattern is tied to trends in adoption and market structure. For instance, the peak in 2017 and the bottom in 2022 are transition points.<\/p>\n<p>The chart depicts the cycles in different colors:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>red \u2014 early retail adoption (2014-2017);<\/li>\n<li>yellow \u2014 Wild West, boom and bust (2018-2022);<\/li>\n<li>blue \u2014 institutional maturity and stability (from 2023).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u201cChoose your mean reversion model, and they will all have the same transition points and change in their nature,\u201d Check noted.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>He added that after the bear market of 2022, the situation changed, and those who rely on the classic cycle model are likely to miss the signal due to \u201chistorical noise.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Although Check&#8217;s hypothesis is well-founded, most market analysts still adhere to the classic halving model. Earlier, Glassnode <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/glassnode-analysts-warn-of-approaching-bitcoin-price-peak\">stated<\/a> that digital gold continues to follow a four-year cycle.<\/p>\n<p>According to their observations, after <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/bitcoin-hits-a-record-above-124000\">setting<\/a> a price record above $124,000, long-term investors actively took profits. The volume of sales is comparable to the peak values of all previous cycles, except for the 2016-2017 period.<\/p>\n<p>Back in July 2025, Blockware researcher Mitchell Askew <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/analyst-predicts-end-of-bitcoins-parabolic-rallies\">predicted<\/a> the end of \u201cparabolic\u201d rallies or \u201cdevastating\u201d bear cycles, as institutions have altered market dynamics and reduced volatility.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Throughout its history, the first cryptocurrency has undergone three cycles, which are not linked to network halving, stated on-chain analyst James Check.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":28390,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"Bitcoin has experienced three cycles, not linked to halving, says analyst.","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[18,160,1138],"class_list":["post-28389","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-bitcoin","tag-halving","tag-opinions"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"280","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"Bitcoin has experienced three cycles, not linked to halving, says analyst.","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28389","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=28389"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28389\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":28391,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28389\/revisions\/28391"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/28390"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=28389"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=28389"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=28389"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}