{"id":28850,"date":"2025-08-27T13:38:47","date_gmt":"2025-08-27T10:38:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=28850"},"modified":"2025-08-28T11:40:34","modified_gmt":"2025-08-28T08:40:34","slug":"analysts-identify-bitcoins-lifeline-support","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/analysts-identify-bitcoins-lifeline-support\/","title":{"rendered":"Analysts identify Bitcoin\u2019s \u2018lifeline\u2019 support"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The $110,000 level is a \u201clifeline\u201d for bitcoin, Swissblock said.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24BTC&#038;src=ctag&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$BTC<\/a> is at a make-or-break level:<\/p>\n<p>$110K = lifeline support<\/p>\n<p>$121K = ceiling to break<\/p>\n<p>In short: BTC has proven resilience above $100K, but survival above $110K will decide if the trend continues bullish or tips into structural weakness. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/g24CMc96cN\">pic.twitter.com\/g24CMc96cN<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Swissblock (@swissblock__) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/swissblock__\/status\/1960341713823654088?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">August 26, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>The firm argues that holding this level is needed to keep the bull trend intact. The \u201cceiling\u201d to clear for further gains is $121,000.<\/p>\n<p>Analyst AlphaBTC likewise highlighted the $110,000\u2013$112,000 area.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">\ud83d\udcc8<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Bitcoin?src=hash&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Bitcoin<\/a> game plan \ud83d\udcc8<\/p>\n<p>Lower time frame view as <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24BTC&#038;src=ctag&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$BTC<\/a> attempts to break back out of the June \/ July range.<\/p>\n<p>For me, until we get a H4 close above 112K I still feel 105K is in play, so I will be watching that level closely.<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Crypto?src=hash&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Crypto<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/BTC?src=hash&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#BTC<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/pUUFtwwVDX\">https:\/\/t.co\/pUUFtwwVDX<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/vCfRVF7s5s\">pic.twitter.com\/vCfRVF7s5s<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 AlphaBTC (@mark_cullen) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/mark_cullen\/status\/1960550040239223170?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">August 27, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>He said a four-hour close above that band is required to restart the advance; otherwise a pullback to $105,000 is likely.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Signs of weakness<\/h2>\n<p>At press time, bitcoin trades at $110,951 (down 0.6% on the day). The price is 10.6% below the all-time high of $124,128, <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/bitcoin-breaches-a-record-120000-amid-institutional-demand\">reached<\/a> on August 14.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh7-qw.googleusercontent.com\/docsz\/AD_4nXfg_-OUXxEbGMLvuVkVKP9jO5m6b5cuxVRGRxrU4kGwRUIrViFHyg-cmbjX-PvZW11yudXjEMo0IN-cAUXhwIA9ELxoySvrjnylsdnD9s6ZE51HpxmJse2_YvcI7kXgDMhUVbFORw?key=ar8cy7Oifieh5qdvsoAZsg\" alt=\"\u042d\u043a\u0441\u043f\u0435\u0440\u0442\u044b \u043d\u0430\u0437\u0432\u0430\u043b\u0438 \u00ab\u0441\u043f\u0430\u0441\u0430\u0442\u0435\u043b\u044c\u043d\u044b\u0439\u00bb \u0443\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0435\u043d\u044c \u043f\u043e\u0434\u0434\u0435\u0440\u0436\u043a\u0438 \u0431\u0438\u0442\u043a\u043e\u0438\u043d\u0430\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">15-minute BTC\/USD chart on Binance. Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/BTCUSD\/?exchange=BINANCE\">TradingView<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Bitcoin\u2019s taker buy-sell ratio fell to -0.945. Readings below 1 indicate sellers are in control. CryptoQuant analyst Gaah <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoquant.com\/insights\/quicktake\/68ad849ce6d63121c5fabfa8-Taker-Buy-Sell-Ratio-reaches-lowest-value-since-November-2021\">noted<\/a> this signals market pessimism. Similar levels were seen at the November 2021 peak, after which a correction followed.<\/p>\n<p>Network activity is also ebbing. According to Glassnode, the monthly average of change-adjusted transfer volume fell by 13% \u2014 from $26.7bn to $23.2bn.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Network Activity Slowing<\/p>\n<p>The monthly average of change-adjusted transfer volume has declined from $26.7B to $23.2B (~13%), tracking the pullback in price. A break below the yearly average of $21.6B would confirm weakening speculative activity and signal a broader contraction in\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/gnyTokjzmA\">pic.twitter.com\/gnyTokjzmA<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 glassnode (@glassnode) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/glassnode\/status\/1960414159457210826?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">August 26, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>The company says a drop below the yearly average of $21.6bn would confirm weakening demand.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Market cooldown<\/h2>\n<p>Glassnode reckons the market has entered a \u201clate-cycle phase\u201d, as evidenced by elevated realized profits.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Bitcoin?src=hash&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Bitcoin<\/a> has now spent 273 days with a super-majority of supply held in profit (above the +1\u03c3 band) \u2014 the 2nd longest stretch on record, behind only the 2015\u20132018 cycle at 335 days. A signal of how extended the current cycle has been relative to history. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/tYGHf21MvP\">pic.twitter.com\/tYGHf21MvP<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 glassnode (@glassnode) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/glassnode\/status\/1960322839283654757?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">August 26, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>TYMIO founder Georgy Verbitsky told <a href=\"https:\/\/decrypt.co\/336973\/bitcoin-september-network-activity-slows\">Decrypt<\/a> he expects a \u201ccooling period\u201d that could last into September.<\/p>\n<p>Sentiment is also pressured by outflows from spot bitcoin ETFs and macroeconomic risks. According to Ecoinometrics, if outflows persist the price could fall to $107,000 and even slip below the psychological $100,000 mark.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">ETF flows are pulling Bitcoin lower.<\/p>\n<p>As of Friday, our flows-to-price model put the expected price at $107K, with downside risk below $100K if outflows persist.<\/p>\n<p>The macro uncertainty of the past few weeks is showing up directly in the flows. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/iMF3lTQlIv\">pic.twitter.com\/iMF3lTQlIv<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 ecoinometrics (@ecoinometrics) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ecoinometrics\/status\/1960302139655233940?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">August 26, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Verbitsky also allows for a drop toward that level.<\/p>\n<p>He advised against opening new long positions and to wait. In his view, buying is justified only after price holds above $118,000.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Binance inflows and a divergence from M2<\/h2>\n<p>Amid the sell-off, Binance users deposited $1.65bn in stablecoins. Large stablecoin inflows to exchanges often precede rising demand for cryptocurrencies.<\/p>\n<p>According to <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoquant.com\/insights\/quicktake\/68ad7414eb8bf52376382edb-Binance-Sees-165B-Stablecoin-Surge-as-Ethereum-Withdrawals-Near-1B\">CryptoQuant<\/a>, the inflows coincided with almost $1bn in Ethereum withdrawals from Binance. An analyst known as Amr Taha noted this is the second time in a month that stablecoin inflows to the exchange have topped $1.5bn, \u201cunderscoring a new wave of capital entering the spot market\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>Bitcoin\u2019s drop to <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/bitcoin-price-dips-to-109000\">$109,000<\/a> produced the sharpest divergence in two years from the trajectory of global M2, a gauge of money in circulation.<\/p>\n<p>Since the pandemic, bitcoin has shown a strong correlation with M2, typically with a two- to three\u2011month lag, giving traders a guide to short\u2011term price trends.<\/p>\n<p>Even so, Real Vision founder Raoul Pal, who was among the first to <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/RaoulGMI\/status\/1960106882758058061\">highlight<\/a> this relationship, noted that over the long run the correlation is stronger with total global liquidity rather than M2 alone.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The longer term correlation (not daily wiggles) is Far stronger using Total Global Liquidity and not Global M2<\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Raoul Pal (@RaoulGMI) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/RaoulGMI\/status\/1960117105702957354?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">August 25, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Earlier, on-chain analyst James Check <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/analyst-proposes-bitcoin-cycle-model-independent-of-halving\">outlined<\/a> a halving-independent model of bitcoin cycles.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The $110,000 mark is bitcoin\u2019s \u201clifeline\u201d, says Swissblock.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":28851,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"Swissblock calls $110,000 bitcoin\u2019s \u2018lifeline\u2019; $121,000 seen as the ceiling.","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[18,1145],"class_list":["post-28850","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-bitcoin","tag-market-analysis"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"252","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"Swissblock calls $110,000 bitcoin\u2019s \u2018lifeline\u2019; $121,000 seen as the ceiling.","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28850","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=28850"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28850\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":28852,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28850\/revisions\/28852"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/28851"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=28850"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=28850"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=28850"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}