{"id":29633,"date":"2025-08-27T18:03:55","date_gmt":"2025-08-27T15:03:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=29633"},"modified":"2025-08-27T18:05:42","modified_gmt":"2025-08-27T15:05:42","slug":"10x-research-bitcoins-rise-to-200000-highly-unlikely","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/10x-research-bitcoins-rise-to-200000-highly-unlikely\/","title":{"rendered":"10x Research: Bitcoin&#8217;s Rise to $200,000 Highly Unlikely"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The likelihood of the leading cryptocurrency reaching $200,000 by the year&#8217;s end is deemed &#8220;extremely unlikely&#8221; by experts at 10x Research.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">$200,000 Bitcoin? The Math Says Otherwise<\/p>\n<p>Actionable Market Insights<\/p>\n<p>In our July 30 report, \u201cWhy the $140,000 Bitcoin Target Isn\u2019t as Easy as It Sounds,\u201d we estimated a 54% probability of Bitcoin reaching our $140,000 year-end target\u2014but with a clear downward bias, as we\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/q3EvvOdwLu\">pic.twitter.com\/q3EvvOdwLu<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 10x Research (@10x_Research) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/10x_Research\/status\/1960147184617402370?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">August 26, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>They assess the probability of Bitcoin rising to $140,000 at just 54%. The analysts&#8217; pessimism is attributed to three key factors: <\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>slowing institutional inflows;<\/li>\n<li>large-scale sell-offs by miners;<\/li>\n<li>the traditional weakness of the third quarter, during which Bitcoin consistently shows poor performance. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>These concerns are corroborated by data from CryptoQuant. The buy-sell ratio of the leading cryptocurrency <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/analysts-identify-bitcoins-lifeline-support\">has dropped<\/a> to -0.945, indicating a dominance of sellers. According to the analyst known as Gaah, similar levels were observed at the peak in November 2021, followed by a correction.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/AD_4nXdP8TpqAWvPgQcSEKSS-gstVdreYftSQKzWR5IR1SU942lh1wcNjTrFzEY4N9JJdWvb9p98tz5wEcBsrkOVTLSihFr-2XzV7pctP4EObFX6ZePxpPtD8x9dntrhvtbdxo1MnEw.webp\" alt=\"10x Research: Bitcoin's Rise to $200,000 Highly Unlikely\" class=\"wp-image-264664\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Source: CryptoQuant. <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Users of the prediction platform Polymarket <a href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/event\/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2025\">share<\/a> the skepticism. Only 9% believe Bitcoin will reach $200,000. A more realistic target is $125,000, with a 71% probability. <\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/AD_4nXdSfcuCs8qBKfsSonTqcOBYwlq9YkX8zoIQ2XLZGlLqb5hSSw7uAmKM795xqf1GizyySFRvhsp-kzcclczubBkmMxUcMr3yFnnVotlPq2WQO_WW_B6VGyXfS8F_oO9rus9Zgfx1Jw.webp\" alt=\"10x Research: Bitcoin's Rise to $200,000 Highly Unlikely\" class=\"wp-image-264662\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Source: Polymarket. <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">$160,000 by Christmas <\/h2>\n<p>Economist Timothy Peterson <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/nsquaredvalue\/status\/1960011963850752343\">forecasted<\/a> Bitcoin&#8217;s rise to $160,000 by the end of the year. Based on historical data, he noted that in 70% of cases, the leading cryptocurrency appreciates from late August to late December with an average return of 44%.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/AD_4nXdltuP0T8HwDNKt6031yf34p5xeaPa3Y6R2vykkcCR0pUVzr3T8RiHrW514NdUCmCSgEJ50pex-NPNIfewjM-3tbVRcffX9d7Z2fLnBeW0wPVIVBrfyRzs4nuqdgAML_6kMdjkQog.webp\" alt=\"10x Research: Bitcoin's Rise to $200,000 Highly Unlikely\" class=\"wp-image-264661\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Source: X. <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Under such conditions, by Catholic Christmas, the digital gold&#8217;s rate could reach $160,000. <\/p>\n<p>However, the expert emphasized that his observations are more of a guideline than a strict rule. For instance, he excluded 2017, 2018, 2020, and 2022 as atypical due to unique market and economic conditions. <\/p>\n<p>At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $111,900. <\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/AD_4nXeK2JammXkWpUzZLx8IJr4OrkluakbxAXxmHbI4PBfT_io4GVExelbAB0Qjxxusgmr0qv9Wgs8bwKuS_fOiWwhYBEmOQVwyvigr57s7tRkXVPiN045pErXjf9UsZmlXA4le221UlA.webp\" alt=\"10x Research: Bitcoin's Rise to $200,000 Highly Unlikely\" class=\"wp-image-264663\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Hourly BTC\/USDT chart from Binance. Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/ru.tradingview.com\/chart\/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSD\">TradingView<\/a>. <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Earlier in late August, an analyst <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/analyst-identifies-bitcoin-pattern-resembling-second-quarter-trends\">noted<\/a> a repetition of the second quarter pattern on Bitcoin&#8217;s chart. At that time, the asset reached an all-time high of $112,000 before falling to $98,000.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The likelihood of Bitcoin reaching $200,000 by the year&#8217;s end is &#8220;extremely unlikely,&#8221; say 10x Research experts.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":29634,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"Data from CryptoQuant confirms concerns.","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[18,1146],"class_list":["post-29633","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-bitcoin","tag-cryptocurrency-market-forecasts"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"371","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"Data from CryptoQuant confirms concerns.","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29633","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29633"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29633\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":29635,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29633\/revisions\/29635"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/29634"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29633"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29633"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29633"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}