{"id":29886,"date":"2020-10-09T18:01:43","date_gmt":"2020-10-09T15:01:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=29886"},"modified":"2025-08-27T19:27:06","modified_gmt":"2025-08-27T16:27:06","slug":"opinion-the-s2f-model-does-not-work-bitcoin-resembles-a-technology-companys-stock","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/opinion-the-s2f-model-does-not-work-bitcoin-resembles-a-technology-companys-stock\/","title":{"rendered":"Opinion: the S2F model does not work; Bitcoin resembles a technology company&#8217;s stock"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The popular Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model is not applicable for valuing the first cryptocurrency. Since Bitcoin&#8217;s supply, unlike precious metals, is fixed, its price is determined by demand. These conclusions are contained in a report by ByteTree&#8217;s head of analytics, Charlie Morris.<!--more--><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">Our new comprehensive report explores the various factors that drive the value of <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Bitcoin?src=hash&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Bitcoin<\/a>; the first chapter examines the key macro drivers for Bitcoin in 2020. Get access to the full report here, hosted by <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Bitstamp?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@Bitstamp<\/a>: <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/fIxYG9uC7e\">https:\/\/t.co\/fIxYG9uC7e<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/nMgZePb4Va\">pic.twitter.com\/nMgZePb4Va<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 ByteTree (@ByteTree) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ByteTree\/status\/1313452344932282369?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 6, 2020<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 cryptonews.com (@cryptonews) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/cryptonews\/status\/1314532997127901187?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 9, 2020<\/a><\/p>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>According to the S2F model, by 16 August 2021 the price of Bitcoin <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/popular-s2f-model-pins-exact-date-bitcoin-hits-100000\">will reach<\/a> $100 000.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_112733\" style=\"width: 1810px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-112733\" class=\"wp-image-112733 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/image1-326.png\" alt=\"Opinion: the S2F model does not work; Bitcoin resembles a technology company's stock\" width=\"1800\" height=\"1013\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/image1-326.png 1800w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/image1-326-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/image1-326-1024x576.png 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/image1-326-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/image1-326-1536x864.png 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1800px) 100vw, 1800px\" \/><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-112733\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Bitcoin miners&#8217; revenues relative to market capitalization and transaction value. Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/terminal.bytetree.com\/bitcoin\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">ByteTree<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>After the third halving of Bitcoin, the price lagged behind the model&#8217;s forecast for several months.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_112731\" style=\"width: 634px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-112731\" class=\"size-full wp-image-112731\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/image2-204.png\" alt=\"Opinion: the S2F model does not work; Bitcoin resembles a technology company's stock\" width=\"624\" height=\"351\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/image2-204.png 624w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/image2-204-300x169.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" \/><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-112731\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Bitcoin&#8217;s market value dynamics and the projected price according to the S2F model. Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/studio.glassnode.com\/metrics?a=BTC&#038;category=Market%20Indicators&#038;m=indicators.StockToFlowDeflection\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Glassnode<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>In June, the S2F model was criticised by Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin.<\/p>\n<p>ForkLog previously published a piece on crypto-asset valuation models.<\/p>\n<p>Subscribe to ForkLog&#8217;s channel on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/channel\/UCC9FnXTC8_ENzaNSO5cHQ6g\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\"> YouTube<\/a>!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The popular Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model is not applicable to valuing the first cryptocurrency. Since Bitcoin&#8217;s supply, unlike precious metals, is fixed, its price is determined by demand. These conclusions are contained in a report by ByteTree&#8217;s head of analytics, Charlie Morris.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":29887,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[18,480,1138],"class_list":["post-29886","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-opinions"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"8","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"","short_excerpt":"","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29886","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29886"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29886\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":29888,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29886\/revisions\/29888"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/29887"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29886"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29886"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29886"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}