Eric Wall, the IT director of the cryptocurrency hedge fund Arcane Assets, is prepared to stake $1 million that the popular Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model for Bitcoin’s price will not work.<\/p>\n
\nNot uncertain? I bet $1,000,000 that the S2FX model will be broken less than 5 years from now.<\/p>\n
This is not a joke. I\u2019m willing to lock up the money for it with a 3rd party we both trust, and you must too.<\/p>\n
I define “broken” = “it won\u2019t have reached even 50% of its target range”. https:\/\/t.co\/vmDO5UkQoO<\/a><\/p>\n
\u2014 Eric Wall (@ercwl) November 11, 2020<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
In Wall’s view, the model will ‘break’ by 2025. This means it won’t reach its target range even at 50%, he clarified.<\/p>\n
\n\u201cThis is not a joke. I\u2019m prepared to hand over the money to a third party we both trust, and you should do so as well,\u201d Wall stated as the terms of the bet.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
His proposal came in response to PlanB’s recent statement, the creator of the S2F for Bitcoin and a popular crypto blogger, who confirmed<\/a> his confidence in the model’s accuracy.<\/p>\n
\n\u201cPeople ask whether I believe in my model. For clarity: I have no doubt that S2F is accurate and that Bitcoin will reach $100,000\u2013$288,000 by December 2021,\u201d PlanB wrote.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
\n\u201cI can’t discuss Eric’s logic, but the reason I’m willing to offer this bet, even without considering the accuracy of S2F, lies in a simple arbitrage. Buy Bitcoin, short S2F at 3:1 \u2014 you can’t lose,\u201d Ari Paul stated.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
In a subsequent tweet, he indicated that he had made the bet in jest.<\/p>\n
Earlier, analysts at the Strix Leviathan hedge fund analysed in detail why S2F is not suitable for forecasting Bitcoin’s price.<\/p>\n
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