{"id":37780,"date":"2022-09-15T13:09:59","date_gmt":"2022-09-15T10:09:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=37780"},"modified":"2025-08-29T21:26:02","modified_gmt":"2025-08-29T18:26:02","slug":"sopr-finding-bitcoins-highs-and-lows","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/sopr-finding-bitcoins-highs-and-lows\/","title":{"rendered":"SOPR: finding bitcoin\u2019s highs and lows"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"wp-block-text-wrappers-cards single_card\">\n<h2 class=\"card_label\">Key points<\/h2>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) is an on-chain indicator used to analyse bitcoin\u2019s market cycles.<\/li>\n<li>SOPR is an oscillatory metric that helps identify periods when long-term investors are selling BTC at a loss or, conversely, locking in profits.<\/li>\n<li>This on-chain tool can be used to spot local price lows and highs for the leading cryptocurrency. SOPR\u2019s creator considers the indicator to be leading.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"wp-block-text-wrappers-cards single_card\">\n<h2 class=\"card_label\">How SOPR works<\/h2>\n<p>Researcher Renato Shirakashi proposed SOPR in 2019, introducing it and explaining how it works <a href=\"https:\/\/medium.com\/unconfiscatable\/introducing-sopr-spent-outputs-to-predict-bitcoin-lows-and-tops-ceb4536b3b9\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">on his blog<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>As with the <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.news\/cryptorium\/chto-takoe-indikator-mvrv\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">on-chain MVRV indicator<\/a>, Shirakashi assumed that each bitcoin transaction reflects a purchase or sale of the asset. Instead of realised capitalisation, SOPR looks at the ratio between the sale and purchase prices of bitcoin.<\/p>\n<p>For the purchase price, SOPR uses the dollar value at the penultimate movement of the coins; for the sale price, it uses the dollar value at the most recent transaction.<\/p>\n<p>To derive these, SOPR relies on data from unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs). The purchase price corresponds to an incoming transfer of, say, 10 BTC; the sale price is the subsequent movement of those same 10 BTC.<\/p>\n<p>For example, if a 10 BTC UTXO was created when 1 BTC was $20,000 \u2014 the purchase price \u2014 and those 10 BTC are later moved when 1 BTC is $40,000, that implies a sale. The SOPR for these coins would therefore be 2 \u2014 the ratio of the dollar values of the two opposing transfers of the same BTC. The calculation can be made for each UTXO or for a selected cohort, depending on the SOPR variant.<\/p>\n<p>Analysts plot the SOPR curve against the bitcoin price. A BTC price at which SOPR is above 1 is considered a break-even level for selling.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"993\" height=\"559\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sopr-1-fl.png\" alt=\"\u0427\u0442\u043e \u0442\u0430\u043a\u043e\u0435 \u0438\u043d\u0434\u0438\u043a\u0430\u0442\u043e\u0440 SOPR\" class=\"wp-image-184907\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sopr-1-fl.png 993w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sopr-1-fl-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sopr-1-fl-768x432.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 993px) 100vw, 993px\" \/><figcaption>SOPR (blue line) and the BTC price from October 2021 to September 2022. Data: <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoquant.com\/asset\/btc\/chart\/market-indicator\/spent-output-profit-ratio-sopr?window=DAY&#038;sma=0&#038;ema=0&#038;priceScale=log&#038;metricScale=log&#038;chartStyle=line\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">CryptoQuant<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Bitcoin\u2019s SOPR can be tracked in real time on platforms such as <a href=\"https:\/\/www.decentrader.com\/charts\/spent-output-profit-ratio-sopr\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Decentrader<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/studio.glassnode.com\/metrics?a=BTC&#038;m=indicators.Sopr\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Glassnode<\/a>. A chart from the latter is also available on <a href=\"https:\/\/ru.tradingview.com\/chart\/uTXhSicL\/?symbol=GLASSNODE%3ABTC_SOPR\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">TradingView<\/a>. Glassnode has also published analogous versions of the indicator for <a href=\"https:\/\/ru.tradingview.com\/chart\/uTXhSicL\/?symbol=GLASSNODE%3AETH_SOPR\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Ethereum<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/ru.tradingview.com\/chart\/uTXhSicL\/?symbol=GLASSNODE%3ALTC_SOPR\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Litecoin<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"wp-block-text-wrappers-cards single_card\">\n<h2 class=\"card_label\">SOPR variants<\/h2>\n<p>Beyond the original SOPR, analysts have devised several modifications with finer parameter tuning. The best known are:<\/p>\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Adjusted SOPR (aSOPR)<\/strong>. The most widely used variant, it excludes UTXOs younger than one hour. This dampens the impact of some speculators and arbitrageurs who use BTC as a transit asset during exchanges or trades.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Short-Term Holder SOPR (STH-SOPR)<\/strong>. Less sensitive than aSOPR, it considers UTXOs older than one hour and younger than 155 days.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Long-Term Holder SOPR (LTH-SOPR)<\/strong>. Designed to analyse long-term investor behaviour, it only includes UTXOs older than 155 days.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"829\" height=\"353\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sopr-fl-2.png\" alt=\"\u041c\u043e\u0434\u0438\u0444\u0438\u043a\u0430\u0446\u0438\u0438 \u0438\u043d\u0434\u0438\u043a\u0430\u0442\u043e\u0440\u0430 SOPR \u0434\u043b\u044f \u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0437\u0430 \u0446\u0435\u043d\u044b \u0431\u0438\u0442\u043a\u043e\u0438\u043d\u0430\" class=\"wp-image-184909\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sopr-fl-2.png 829w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sopr-fl-2-300x128.png 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sopr-fl-2-768x327.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 829px) 100vw, 829px\" \/><figcaption>SOPR modifications<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"wp-block-text-wrappers-cards single_card\">\n<h2 class=\"card_label\">Using SOPR<\/h2>\n<p>SOPR is one of the simpler tools for analysing bitcoin\u2019s market cycles. Interpreting the oscillator boils down to a few cases:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>If the value equals 1, investors are selling bitcoin at break-even. The purchase price equals the sale price.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>A reading above 1 signals an uptrend, with investors selling at a profit.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>A reading below 1 points to a downtrend \u2014 investors are holding losing positions or realising losses.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"wp-block-text-wrappers-cards single_card\">\n<h2 class=\"card_label\">Risks of using SOPR<\/h2>\n<p>The indicator\u2019s simplicity and popularity do not shield users from risk when trading bitcoin. Like other on-chain metrics, such tools remain an experimental way to gauge market sentiment.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Interpretation.<\/strong> SOPR rests on the assumption that each bitcoin transfer is a purchase or sale. That is not a fact and may mislead traders. No one can know precisely when and at what prices all bitcoins were bought or sold.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Trading.<\/strong> SOPR is intended to assess and analyse long-term trends and investor behaviour under different market conditions. Making trading decisions purely on SOPR readings is outside its remit. Price action can diverge markedly from transaction data.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Large BTC holders.<\/strong> Any large investor or crypto exchange with sufficient BTC can skew SOPR\u2019s logic and distort its readings. For example, <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.news\/cryptorium\/majkl-sejlor-biografiya-i-vzglyady-osnovatelya-microstrategy\/\">Microstrategy<\/a>, which held nearly 130,000 BTC as of September 2021, might change its custody setup and move funds to other addresses. SOPR will \u201csee\u201d BTC movements on-chain, indicating investors are taking profits or losses, even if it is merely an internal transfer.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"wp-block-text-wrappers-cards single_card\">\n<h2 class=\"card_label\">Further reading<\/h2>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-the-rsi-is-for-and-whether-it-suits-cryptocurrencies\">What is the RSI indicator and is it suitable <\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-the-rsi-is-for-and-whether-it-suits-cryptocurrencies\">fo<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-the-rsi-is-for-and-whether-it-suits-cryptocurrencies\">r cryptocurrencies?<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/why-does-price-slippage-occur-in-crypto-trading\">Why does slippage occur in crypto trading?<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-is-the-hash-ribbons-indicator\">What is the Hash Ribbons indicator?<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-is-a-moving-average-and-how-is-it-used-in-crypto\">What is a moving average and how is it used in crypto?<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-is-cryptocurrency-arbitrage\">What is crypto arbitrage?<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>How SOPR helps map bitcoin\u2019s cycles, what variants exist, and the risks of relying on the metric\u2014explained.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":37781,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"3","_short_excerpt_text":"What SOPR says about bitcoin\u2019s highs, lows and investor behaviour.","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2113],"tags":[2118,1268,1255],"class_list":["post-37780","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cryptorium","tag-101-trading-and-investing","tag-on-chain-analysis","tag-utxo"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"182","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"What SOPR says about bitcoin\u2019s highs, lows and investor behaviour.","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37780","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=37780"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37780\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":37782,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37780\/revisions\/37782"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/37781"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=37780"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=37780"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=37780"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}