{"id":64571,"date":"2022-07-19T12:15:20","date_gmt":"2022-07-19T09:15:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=64571"},"modified":"2025-09-06T15:13:10","modified_gmt":"2025-09-06T12:13:10","slug":"glassnode-flags-signs-of-bitcoin-bottom-formation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/glassnode-flags-signs-of-bitcoin-bottom-formation\/","title":{"rendered":"Glassnode flags signs of Bitcoin bottom formation"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Following the capitulation waves of May\u2013June 2022, Bitcoin&#8217;s price has traded below the Realized Price for a month. Other signals of a bottom formation have also emerged, according to Glassnode researchers.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Bitcoin?src=hash&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Bitcoin<\/a> is testing the underside of the Realized Price, which has historically been associated with bear market bottoms.<\/p>\n<p>With two deep, and historically large capitulation events in May-June, could a genuine bottom now be forming?<\/p>\n<p>Read our analysis\ud83d\udc47<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/jl67cj0yij\">https:\/\/t.co\/jl67cj0yij<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 glassnode (@glassnode) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/glassnode\/status\/1549037133058686976?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">July 18, 2022<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>At the time of the report, <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.news\/cryptorium\/chto-takoe-indikator-mvrv\/\">Realized Price<\/a> stood at $22,092, and the market price was $21,069. In other words, the average unrealized loss stood at 4.67%.<\/p>\n<p>Historically, such a divergence pointed to a bottom in a bear market. The duration of this period ranged from seven days (2020) to 301 days (2015). Excluding the first episode, caused by a shock rather than fundamentals, the average duration of the signal is 197 days versus the current 35 days.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"589\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-692-1024x589.png\" alt=\"Glassnode analysts flag signs of Bitcoin bottom formation\" class=\"wp-image-179290\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-692-1024x589.png 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-692-300x173.png 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-692-768x442.png 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-692-1536x884.png 1536w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-692.png 1600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption>Data: Glassnode.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>The MVRV indicator is at present not yet at levels typical of previous bear phases \u2014 0.953 versus 0.85 (unrealized loss 4.67% versus 15%) \u2014 which leaves room for further price declines and\/or more time for consolidation before the bottom is finally formed, the specialists warned. They added that such a situation could also imply greater investor support in the current cycle.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"589\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2-563-1024x589.png\" alt=\"Glassnode analysts flag signs of Bitcoin bottom formation\" class=\"wp-image-179291\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2-563-1024x589.png 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2-563-300x173.png 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2-563-768x442.png 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2-563-1536x884.png 1536w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2-563.png 1600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption>Data: Glassnode.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>Analysts highlighted coins whose holders bear unrealized losses (those who bought during 2021\u20132022). In total it amounts to $165 billion to $198 billion, based on the market price range of $17,600\u2013$21,800. This is equivalent to about 55% of Bitcoin&#8217;s market capitalization. The figure is higher than in March 2020 and comparable with the 2018 bear market.<\/p>\n<p>A gradual decline in the indicator signals improving hodler profitability. This occurs during capitulations, when unrealized losses transition into realized losses \u2014 coins acquire a new lower cost basis with a new owner. When prices begin to rise, these newly acquired Bitcoins shift from unrealized losses to unrealized profits, usually re-igniting a bull cycle.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"590\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/3-339-1024x590.png\" alt=\"Glassnode analysts flag signs of Bitcoin bottom formation\" class=\"wp-image-179292\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/3-339-1024x590.png 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/3-339-300x173.png 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/3-339-768x443.png 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/3-339-1536x885.png 1536w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/3-339.png 1600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption>Data: Glassnode.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>Analysts used the <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.news\/kak-nahodit-tochki-vhoda-v-rynok-kriptovalyut-pri-pomoshhi-onchejn-instrumentov\/\">HODL-waves<\/a> indicator, dividing held coins into two categories \u2014 up to three months (<em>hot money<\/em>) and longer than this period (<em>hodler money<\/em>).<\/p>\n<p>They found that the first wave is in a downtrend and has fallen below 20%. From this, the specialists concluded there is strong hodler conviction not to part with coins, and\/or a tendency among long-term investors to accumulate Bitcoin, moving them to cold wallets.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"590\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/5-134-1024x590.png\" alt=\"Glassnode analysts flag signs of Bitcoin bottom formation\" class=\"wp-image-179294\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/5-134-1024x590.png 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/5-134-300x173.png 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/5-134-768x443.png 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/5-134-1536x885.png 1536w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/5-134.png 1600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption>Data: Glassnode.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>&#8220;This is another sign that the market is approaching a point of seller exhaustion&#8221;,<\/em> the analysts concluded.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>As noted, Grayscale\u2019s analysts allowed for the end of the crypto winter by the end of March 2023.<\/p>\n<p>In July, Bloomberg strategist Mike McGlone forecast Bitcoin&#8217;s rise over the next six months.<\/p>\n<p>Earlier, Ruchir Sharma, head of Rockefeller International, noted that Bitcoin must shed excessive leverage to regain resilience.<\/p>\n<p>Read ForkLog&#8217;s Bitcoin news on our <a href=\"\/\/telegram.me\/forklog\" target=\"\"_blank\"\" rel=\"nofollow\" noopener\">Telegram<\/a> \u2014 updates on cryptocurrencies, prices and analysis.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Following the capitulation waves in May\u2013June 2022, Bitcoin&#8217;s price has traded below the Realized Price for a month. Other signals of a bottom formation have also appeared, according to Glassnode researchers.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":64572,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[480,1273],"class_list":["post-64571","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-glassnode"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"18","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64571","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=64571"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64571\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":64573,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64571\/revisions\/64573"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/64572"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=64571"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=64571"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=64571"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}