{"id":73601,"date":"2025-09-09T14:56:11","date_gmt":"2025-09-09T11:56:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=73601"},"modified":"2025-09-09T15:02:35","modified_gmt":"2025-09-09T12:02:35","slug":"cryptoquant-sets-out-two-scenarios-for-bitcoins-next-move","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/cryptoquant-sets-out-two-scenarios-for-bitcoins-next-move\/","title":{"rendered":"CryptoQuant sets out two scenarios for Bitcoin\u2019s next move"},"content":{"rendered":"

A pullback in whale activity and retail dominance are weighing on the price of the leading cryptocurrency. CryptoQuant analyst EgyHash did not rule out<\/a> continued sideways trading or a further correction.<\/p>\n

Large players keep accumulating the \u201cdigital gold\u201d, yet the price remains confined to a narrow range. The key reason, he argues, is a shift in futures-market dynamics, which are the \u201cprimary driver for Bitcoin\u201d.<\/p>\n

According to the analyst, the average order size points to stronger influence from retail trades. The metric is calculated as total trading volume divided by the number of trades.<\/p>\n

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Source: CryptoQuant.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
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\u201cThe visualization of the distribution of cryptocurrency turnover further confirms this trend, reflecting the market\u2019s transition into a consolidation phase with a characteristic decline in trading activity,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

The CVD<\/span> indicator over the past 90 days shows sellers in the ascendant, signalling bearish sentiment among futures traders about the path ahead for the digital gold.<\/p>\n

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Source: CryptoQuant.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

EgyHash stressed that without whales returning and stronger demand from large players, Bitcoin\u2019s price will remain rangebound or face additional selling pressure.<\/p>\n

At the time of writing, the leading cryptocurrency trades at $112,700, up 0.5% over 24 hours and 2.2% on the week.<\/p>\n

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Hourly BTC\/USDT chart on Binance. Source: TradingView<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Options-market sentiment<\/h2>\n

Bitcoin\u2019s recovery above $112,000 after a dip to $108,000 has not been enough to restore trader confidence, Cointelegraph<\/a> writes.<\/p>\n

Market participants are trying to determine what is holding back sentiment and whether the coin has the momentum to break above $120,000.<\/p>\n

In options, demand for protection has risen, pointing to stronger appetite for neutral-to-bearish strategies. Many expect a pullback below $108,000, although this may also be a reaction to last week\u2019s volatility.<\/p>\n

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Put-to-call premium ratio on Deribit. Source: laevitas.ch<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Caution also reflects Bitcoin\u2019s failure to match record highs in the S&P 500 and gold. Meanwhile, weak US employment data have strengthened expectations of monetary easing by the Fed<\/span>.<\/p>\n

At the time of writing, traders assign a 100% probability to a rate cut at the September 17 meeting.<\/p>\n

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Source: CME FedWatch<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Analysts say a positive decision by the regulator could trigger<\/a> a crypto rally in the next quarter.<\/p>\n

ETF<\/h2>\n

Investor caution is compounded by ongoing outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs. The vehicles attracted $368 million last week, but that is far below readings in prior months. In July, the seven-day figures consistently topped $1 billion.<\/p>\n

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Weekly net flows for spot Bitcoin ETFs. Source: SoSoValue<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Companies and exchange-traded funds have been accumulating Ethereum more actively, which may also be weighing on investor sentiment toward the digital gold.<\/p>\n

\"image\"
Weekly net flows for spot Ethereum ETFs. Source: SoSoValue<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

What next?<\/h2>\n

Glassnode analysts noted a recovery in Bitcoin\u2019s on-chain metrics. Active addresses have returned to their prior range, hinting at some revival, they said.<\/p>\n

However, transaction volumes have fallen alongside fees, suggesting there is no serious rush.<\/p>\n

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$BTC<\/a> has been trading just above the short-term holder cost basis, oscillating near $111k. This week\u2019s Market Pulse reviews fragile stabilization across spot, futures, ETFs, and on-chain signals, with cautious sentiment still dominating: https:\/\/t.co\/MR4cISBH98<\/a> pic.twitter.com\/S7QEVuQiqS<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 glassnode (@glassnode) September 9, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n