{"id":79506,"date":"2025-09-11T11:20:16","date_gmt":"2025-09-11T08:20:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=79506"},"modified":"2025-09-11T11:25:50","modified_gmt":"2025-09-11T08:25:50","slug":"indicator-signals-onset-of-bitcoins-extreme-volatility-phase","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/indicator-signals-onset-of-bitcoins-extreme-volatility-phase\/","title":{"rendered":"Indicator Signals Onset of Bitcoin&#8217;s &#8216;Extreme&#8217; Volatility Phase"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"wp-block-text-wrappers-keypoints article_keypoints\">\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Historical deviation of the indicator warns of sharp movements in the crypto market.<\/li>\n<li>Macroeconomic data and Federal Reserve actions remain the primary focus for investors.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<p>The Bollinger Bands (BB) on the monthly chart of the leading cryptocurrency have reached their lowest level ever, indicating &#8220;extreme&#8221; volatility. This was <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/MatthewHyland_\/status\/1965107035542094072\">highlighted<\/a> by technical analyst Matthew Hyland.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-8048741472db26d9-3971288388503659.webp\" alt=\"image\" class=\"wp-image-265630\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Source: X.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>BB is a volatility indicator used to determine price highs and lows. When the indicator is near the upper line, it suggests overbought conditions, and near the lower line, it indicates oversold conditions.<\/p>\n<p>The unusual position of the metric has also been noted by other market participants.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The Bollinger Bands on the 1M (monthly) are at historical tightness. This has previously led to heavy volatility to the upside (see chart).<\/p>\n<p>Bitcoin could be in for a spicy Q4 \ud83d\udc02\ud83e\udee1 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/sOmeLIYPgT\">pic.twitter.com\/sOmeLIYPgT<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 \ud83d\udc51Crypto Caesar\ud83d\udc51\u2122\ufe0f (@crypto_caesar1) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/crypto_caesar1\/status\/1964276405308448977?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 6, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>&#8220;Previously [the drop of the indicator to lows] led to high volatility. Bitcoin might be in for a turbulent rally in Q4,&#8221; noted the trader known as Crypto Caesar.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Investor Yannis Andreou <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/gandreou007\/status\/1963195275218235612\">added<\/a> that all previous contractions of the Bollinger Bands in 2012, 2016, and 2020 preceded &#8220;explosive price growth&#8221; of the leading cryptocurrency.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>&#8220;The current situation is even more compressed, indicating the potential for the largest move in Bitcoin&#8217;s history. The direction is not guaranteed, but trends suggest a continuation,&#8221; the expert emphasized.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>In his view, in the coming months, digital gold will show a significant move\u2014either a breakout to new highs or a &#8220;shocking&#8221; reversal.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Beyond Technical Charts<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Despite the historical breakdown of the Bollinger Bands, the crypto market&#8217;s main focus remains on U.S. macroeconomic data and the actions of the <span data-descr=\"Federal Reserve System of the United States\" class=\"old_tooltip\">Federal Reserve<\/span> at the meeting on September 17.<\/p>\n<p>On September 10, negative data on industrial inflation in the United States <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/us-producer-inflation-data-sparks-crypto-market-rally\">brought Bitcoin back<\/a> to $114,000. On September 11, the Consumer Price Index is expected to be released.<\/p>\n<p>Positive indicators are likely to incline the Fed towards a rate cut. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, market participants assess the probability of this event at 100%\u2014opinions are divided on the magnitude of the cut.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-6a907045de49bbcd-3971288134220879-1024x683.png\" alt=\"image\" class=\"wp-image-265629\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-6a907045de49bbcd-3971288134220879-1024x683.png 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-6a907045de49bbcd-3971288134220879-300x200.png 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-6a907045de49bbcd-3971288134220879-768x512.png 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-6a907045de49bbcd-3971288134220879.png 1030w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/markets\/interest-rates\/cme-fedwatch-tool.html\">CME FedWatch Tool<\/a>.\u00a0<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>92% anticipate a 25 basis point cut, while 8% expect a 50 basis point reduction.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>&#8220;If a [50-point cut] occurs, cryptocurrency will soar above previous highs,&#8221; <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/misterrcrypto\/status\/1965797914963333579\">wrote<\/a> the user known as Mister Crypto.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>However, Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/shorts\/XvBfU_5g5V4\">considers<\/a> the likelihood of such a significant reduction to be very low.\u00a0<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>&#8220;I am almost certain that the U.S. will cut the rate by 25 basis points. If you look at the labor market, there is no doubt that some easing can be observed,&#8221; he clarified.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Solomon anticipates potentially two more rate cuts this year, depending on the macroeconomic situation.<\/p>\n<p>Analysts at Santiment <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/analysts-predict-bitcoin-rebound-amid-rising-fud\">predicted<\/a> a Bitcoin rebound amid growing bearish sentiment.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Bollinger Bands on the monthly chart of the leading cryptocurrency have reached their lowest level ever, indicating &#8220;extreme&#8221; volatility.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":79507,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"Analysts uncertain about movement direction","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[18,1249,1145,1253],"class_list":["post-79506","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-bitcoin","tag-federal-reserve-system","tag-market-analysis","tag-technical-analysis"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"202","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"Analysts uncertain about movement direction","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79506","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=79506"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79506\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":79508,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79506\/revisions\/79508"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/79507"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=79506"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=79506"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=79506"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}