{"id":8102,"date":"2020-02-08T11:50:35","date_gmt":"2020-02-08T09:50:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.media\/?p=8102"},"modified":"2020-02-09T01:45:55","modified_gmt":"2020-02-08T23:45:55","slug":"how-miners-brace-themselves-for-halving-and-how-it-can-impact-bitcoin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/how-miners-brace-themselves-for-halving-and-how-it-can-impact-bitcoin\/","title":{"rendered":"How Miners Brace Themselves For Halving, and How It Can Impact Bitcoin"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Halving is probably the most anticipated event of 2020 in the crypto-industry. It is a scheduled decrease in block reward from 12.5 to 6.25 BTC. Since the transaction fees comprise a small fraction of miners\u2019 income, they will basically have half of the money cut out.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In this article we look at how the mining industry is preparing for the halving event and what does it change for miners.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Forewarned Is Forearmed<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">For the last year, the hash rate of Bitcoin has been growing almost uninterrupted. As a result, mining difficulty has grown as well. This happened partly because more devices got hooked up for mining and partly because of the shift to new better devices.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Back in 2019, JPMorgan Chase experts <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2019-01-25\/bitcoin-is-worth-less-than-the-cost-to-mine-it-jpmorgan-says\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">noted<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> that Bitcoin is worth less than the costs to mine. At that time, miners had to spend $4060 to get 1 Bitcoin worth around $3600. This level was surpassed in April and isn\u2019t anywhere close since then.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Coin Share analysts set a higher break-even point at $5700. They\u2019ve included the standard cost of electricity ($0.05 per kWh), equipment amortization for 18 months, and the operational expenses of 15% of the total costs.<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">8\/ Unsuprisingly, miners are making some serious dough right now &#8211; with average all-in ROI breakeven levels at about $5,700 (assuming 18-month depreciation, \u00a25\/kWh, and 15% additional C&amp;O OPEX).<\/p>\n<p>What does that mean for profitability? I&#39;ll let you do the math&#8230; \ud83d\udcb0\ud83d\udcb0<\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Christopher Bendiksen (@C_Bendiksen) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/C_Bendiksen\/status\/1136641071713267712?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">June 6, 2019<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It turned out that since May 2019, Bitcoin hasn\u2019t gone as low. Mining was sufficiently profitable to drive the advent of new more powerful devices into the market in preparation for halving.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Notably, since August, the secondary market prices for Antminer S9, the formerly popular Bitmain\u2019s top option, were <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.theblockcrypto.com\/genesis\/53483\/are-bitcoin-miners-pricing-in-the-effects-of-the-block-reward-halving\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">dropping<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> rapidly. The correlation with Bitcoin price trough was clear, S9\u2019s profitability was decreasing.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">According to the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.theblockcrypto.com\/genesis\/53483\/are-bitcoin-miners-pricing-in-the-effects-of-the-block-reward-halving\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">data<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> by Kaboomracks, a mining equipment broker, back in August the previous price for S9 was $450. Then it plunged along with the mining revenue. Yet, when the revenue trend flattened, S9 price went further down to $90\u201360.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2-227.png\" alt=\"How Miners Brace Themselves For Halving, and How It Can Impact Bitcoin\" width=\"820\" height=\"517\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\"><em><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Antminer S9 price and mining revenue. Source: <\/span><\/em><\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.theblockcrypto.com\/genesis\/53483\/are-bitcoin-miners-pricing-in-the-effects-of-the-block-reward-halving\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\"><em>The Block<\/em><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">According to Chinese media, local miners <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/news.8btc.com\/more-chinese-bitcoin-miners-turn-to-whatsminer-for-high-powered-machines\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">were<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> getting rid of their S9\u2019s. A Sichuan-based used mining equipment trader said that he sold 30 thousand devices between August and November 2019. In November, the price for Antminer S9j 14.5m dropped to $113 and then to $98.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A Sichuan-based mining farm executive told media that at the end of November Bitmain dumped 10 thousand S9j 14.5m devices into the secondary market for $100 each. The devices came from one of Bitmain\u2019s facilities.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Yet, mining with S9 remains profitable, although not as much as with newer flagships.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-24.jpg\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Mining devices comparison. Source: <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.f2pool.com\/miners?currency_code=btc#list-head\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">f2pool.com<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Importantly, researchers estimate the average electricity tariff for miners as $0.04 kWh, but the calculations here use $0.05. Reportedly, during the rainy season electricity prices in Sichuan reach as low as $0.015 kWh.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In September, this season ended. Miners have likely started to upgrade their equipment anticipating lower rewards that would make older devices unprofitable.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">There isn\u2019t much publicly accessible information on Chinese miners, but there is for their Western counterparts.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Over the last few months, several Western companies <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.theblockcrypto.com\/genesis\/52206\/concerns-loom-for-one-of-canadas-biggest-bitcoin-miners\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">purchased<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> new-generation ASIC\u2019s:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Argo Blockchain got 10,000 Antminer T17\u2019s, changing the order from initial 5,000 S17\u2019s;<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">MGT Capital bought 320 Antminer T17 Pro\u2019s and 1,100 Antminer T17\u2019s;<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Riot Blockchain got 4,000 Antminer T17 Pro\u2019s.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">According to The Block <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.theblockcrypto.com\/linked\/53425\/bitcoin-miners-made-an-estimated-5-billion-in-revenue-during-2019\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">estimations<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, the total mining revenue for 2019 amounted to $5 billion. The main expenditures are tied to electricity consumption. Currently, Bitcoin <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbeci.org\/comparisons\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">consumes<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> 80\u201390 TWh per year, depending on the hash rate fluctuations. With all the losses, mining revenue appears to be sufficient to cover equipment upgrades.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Yet, according to Leo Zhang of Interactive Capital, large miners <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.theblockcrypto.com\/daily\/50347\/as-concerns-over-crypto-credit-bubble-mount-miners-appear-to-be-particularly-at-risk\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">work<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> with credit firms, including those in DeFi, to scale their business and upgrade the rigs. He also believes that the break-even point for mining is now at $6,500, grounding the estimations in the information he got from miners. This means that after halving, Bitcoin has to reach at least $13,000 for the mining companies to be financially stable.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Miners Bet on Growth<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Apparently, miners are indeed expecting Bitcoin to grow. After the previous halving event the currency went on to parabolic growth eventually reaching $20,000 at the end of 2017. This may at least partially justify miners\u2019 expectations. Still, many experts believe that the upcoming halving will be different from the previous two.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Cryptanalyst Willy Woo noted that unlike 2012 or 2017, this time Bitcoin will get to halving on the backdrop of bearish moods.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">NEVER gone into a halvening in BEARISH price action, miners already capitulating adding sell volume. Historically we front run with a BULLISH setup, miner capitulating only after halvening when revenues are slashed. This is a unique setup. Quite bearish leading up to the event. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/20748Zv8aQ\">pic.twitter.com\/20748Zv8aQ<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Willy Woo (@woonomic) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/woonomic\/status\/1196473964014424064?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 18, 2019<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">CoinShares\u2019 Chief Strategist Officer Meltem Demirors believes that Bitcoin won\u2019t be able to grow after halving because of the well-developed derivatives market, which wasn\u2019t there in previous cases.<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">1\/ there is a very real possibility the price of bitcoin does not go up after halving. <\/p>\n<p>for the first time, there is a robust derivatives (futures, options) market for bitcoin. most firms looking to speculate on bitcoin will trade a derivative, not the underlying.<\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Meltem Demirors (@Melt_Dem) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Melt_Dem\/status\/1209457337393647617?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">December 24, 2019<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">CoinMetrics analysts suggest that Bitcoin price may follow the same scenario as Litecoin: growth expectations and then drop.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Was the most recent LTC halving priced in before it even occurred?<\/p>\n<p>In this week\u2019s issue of State of the Network <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/luyongxu?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@luyongxu<\/a> explores both sides of the debate about whether halvings are priced in beforehand.<\/p>\n<p>Read the full story here:<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/oF4JcB5ybX\">https:\/\/t.co\/oF4JcB5ybX<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/sU8QdiHj0m\">pic.twitter.com\/sU8QdiHj0m<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; CoinMetrics.io (@coinmetrics) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/coinmetrics\/status\/1209504005312794624?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">December 24, 2019<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Notably, Litecoin creator Charly Lee <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=pAfCMV_QaFo\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">thinks<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> the same.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In a few months, we will be able to evaluate the mining industry\u2019s financials after the reward halving. The total hash rate and public companies\u2019 reports will allow for a representative picture. Yet, consolidation of power by the large players and the growing share of Chinese miners are to be expected.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Written by Andrew Pleschenko<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><b>Follow us on<\/b>\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/forklogmedia\"><b>Twitter<\/b><\/a><b>\u00a0and\u00a0<\/b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/forklogmedia\"><b>Facebook<\/b><\/a><b>\u00a0and join our\u00a0<\/b><a href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/forklogmedia\"><b>Telegram channel<\/b><\/a><b>\u00a0to know what\u2019s up with crypto and why it\u2019s important.<\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Halving is probably the most anticipated event of 2020 in the crypto-industry. It is a scheduled decrease in block reward from 12.5 to 6.25 BTC. Since the transaction fees comprise a small fraction of miners\u2019 income, they will basically have half of the money cut out.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":8103,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"","creation_source":"human_written","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[18,480,160,29],"class_list":["post-8102","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-halving","tag-mining"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"624","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"","short_excerpt":"","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8102","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8102"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8102\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8106,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8102\/revisions\/8106"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/8103"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8102"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8102"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8102"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}