{"id":89074,"date":"2025-09-19T12:17:51","date_gmt":"2025-09-19T09:17:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=89074"},"modified":"2025-09-19T12:26:43","modified_gmt":"2025-09-19T09:26:43","slug":"analyst-warns-bitcoin-could-plunge-by-70","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/analyst-warns-bitcoin-could-plunge-by-70\/","title":{"rendered":"Analyst warns bitcoin could plunge by 70%"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin could face a 70% drop in the next bear phase, according to ITC Crypto founder Benjamin Cowen.<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/lAFnzx_CzUo?si=Aap2xo-lYrkh5Jng\" title=\"YouTube video player\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>History, he says, points to a potential correction. In previous cycles the price of digital gold declined by 94%, 87% and 77% from the peak.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>&#8220;I would say that a 70% drop from whatever absolute top bitcoin reaches is possible. Does it have to happen? No, but the lessons of history suggest that such a probability should be considered,&#8221; \u2014 said Cowen. <\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Next ATH in two weeks? <\/h2>\n<p>The most recent all-time high for the leading cryptocurrency was <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/bitcoin-hits-a-record-above-124000\">recorded<\/a> at $124,128 on August 14. At the time of writing, the asset trades around $116,900.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"601\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-2ed241a6a718b135-4665449208971405-1024x601.png\" alt=\"image\" class=\"wp-image-266011\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-2ed241a6a718b135-4665449208971405-1024x601.png 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-2ed241a6a718b135-4665449208971405-300x176.png 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-2ed241a6a718b135-4665449208971405-768x450.png 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-2ed241a6a718b135-4665449208971405-1536x901.png 1536w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-2ed241a6a718b135-4665449208971405.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Hourly BTC\/USDT chart on Binance. Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/ru.tradingview.com\/chart\/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT\">TradingView<\/a>. <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Researcher Axel Adler Jr put the odds of bitcoin reaching an <span data-descr=\"all-time high\" class=\"old_tooltip\">ATH<\/span> in the next two weeks at 70%. He pointed to balanced investor sentiment.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">STH MVRV Z-Scores (155D &#038; 365D) are hovering near zero \u2014 the market is neither overheated nor oversold, essentially balanced.<\/p>\n<p>BTC price sits just above STH Realized Price, setting the stage for 1\u20132 weeks of consolidation with a potential push to ATH. <\/p>\n<p>Uptober incoming \ud83c\udf0a <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/hFaycSGxRy\">pic.twitter.com\/hFaycSGxRy<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Axel \ud83d\udc8e\ud83d\ude4c Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/AxelAdlerJr\/status\/1968644174099464325?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 18, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>According to the expert, the MVRV for short-term holders hovers around zero. At the same time, the cryptocurrency is trading above this cohort\u2019s <span data-descr=\"price at the time of the last movement of coins\" class=\"old_tooltip\">realized price<\/span>. Such a setup implies one to two weeks of consolidation before a \u201cnew push to ATH\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>Derivatives also back the upside case. The analyst <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/AxelAdlerJr\/status\/1968553138568286561\">emphasised<\/a> that bitcoin futures have been trading at a steady premium to spot. The seven-day basis exceeds the 30-day one \u2014 a structure typically associated with bullish trends. <\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-adcfc96a6fd40c1d-4665517704891665-1024x576.png\" alt=\"image\" class=\"wp-image-266012\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-adcfc96a6fd40c1d-4665517704891665-1024x576.png 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-adcfc96a6fd40c1d-4665517704891665-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-adcfc96a6fd40c1d-4665517704891665-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-adcfc96a6fd40c1d-4665517704891665-1536x864.png 1536w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-adcfc96a6fd40c1d-4665517704891665.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Source: X. <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>&#8220;Base case (~70%) for the next two weeks: a stair-step uptrend or sideways movement. If in the next few days a cluster of green trend-confirmation signals appears, this will indicate an inflow of new long positions and increase the probability of reaching a new all-time high,&#8221; wrote Adler Jr. <\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">A key resistance level  <\/h2>\n<p>According to <a href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/glassnode\/1262\">Glassnode<\/a>, bitcoin\u2019s heat map shows a concentration of supply around $117,000. Analysts called this level a key resistance zone.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-0782e3933d6d4c42-4665540388670870-1024x576.png\" alt=\"image\" class=\"wp-image-266013\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-0782e3933d6d4c42-4665540388670870-1024x576.png 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-0782e3933d6d4c42-4665540388670870-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-0782e3933d6d4c42-4665540388670870-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-0782e3933d6d4c42-4665540388670870.png 1280w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Source: Telegram. <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>A sustained break above that mark would signal further growth and potentially new highs, the experts noted. Otherwise, bitcoin faces prolonged consolidation or compression.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What could support the price? <\/h2>\n<p>Glassnode also <a href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/glassnode\/1261\">pointed<\/a> to positive inflows into spot bitcoin ETFs. They said this underscores institutional demand as a key factor supporting the market.<\/p>\n<p>On September 18 the vehicles attracted $163m, bringing cumulative investments over four trading sessions to $664m. Last week total inflows <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/crypto-funds-attract-3-3-billion-in-a-week-amid-weak-us-macroeconomic-data\">exceeded<\/a> $2.3bn \u2014 the highest since mid-July. <\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"332\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-acdf7ef0164c1d2d-4665552962772653-1024x332.png\" alt=\"image\" class=\"wp-image-266014\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-acdf7ef0164c1d2d-4665552962772653-1024x332.png 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-acdf7ef0164c1d2d-4665552962772653-300x97.png 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-acdf7ef0164c1d2d-4665552962772653-768x249.png 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-acdf7ef0164c1d2d-4665552962772653-1536x497.png 1536w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-acdf7ef0164c1d2d-4665552962772653.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Chart of weekly inflows and outflows for spot bitcoin ETFs. Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/sosovalue.com\/assets\/etf\/Total_Crypto_Spot_ETF_Fund_Flow?page=usBTC\">SoSoValue<\/a>. <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>CryptoQuant analysts noted rising reserves on the Coinbase exchange in bitcoin and Ethereum. The figure reached $112bn for the first time in four years.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Coinbase Reserves Hit $112B in BTC, ETH &#038; Stablecoins \u2014 Highest in 4 Years<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIn past cycles, rising reserves on major exchanges like Coinbase have often coincided with higher market liquidity and bullish price momentum.\u201d \u2013 By <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/CryptoOnchain?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@CryptoOnchain<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/64VDXP51i5\">pic.twitter.com\/64VDXP51i5<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/cryptoquant_com\/status\/1968943202376856030?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 19, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>&#8220;In past cycles, rising reserves on major exchanges like Coinbase have often coincided with higher market liquidity and bullish price momentum,&#8221; the experts stressed. <\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Earlier, macro analyst Luke Gromen <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/macro-analyst-elucidates-bitcoins-role-as-digital-gold\">explained<\/a> bitcoin\u2019s philosophy as digital gold. According to him, the cryptocurrency\u2019s key advantage is the absence of yield.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin could fall by 70% in the next bear phase, said ITC Crypto founder Benjamin Cowen.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":89075,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"Historical data point to a potential correction","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[18,569,1138],"class_list":["post-89074","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-bitcoin","tag-etf","tag-opinions"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"249","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"Historical data point to a potential correction","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/89074","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=89074"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/89074\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":89076,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/89074\/revisions\/89076"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/89075"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=89074"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=89074"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=89074"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}