{"id":89124,"date":"2025-09-22T10:28:33","date_gmt":"2025-09-22T07:28:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=89124"},"modified":"2025-10-01T13:29:29","modified_gmt":"2025-10-01T10:29:29","slug":"analysts-doubt-an-october-rally-as-crypto-markets-slide","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/analysts-doubt-an-october-rally-as-crypto-markets-slide\/","title":{"rendered":"Analysts doubt an October rally as crypto markets slide"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>On 22 September, bitcoin fell to $112,000, and 24-hour liquidations on the crypto market <a href=\"https:\/\/www.coinglass.com\/LiquidationData\">reached<\/a> $1.7bn. Amid the correction, analysts are split on the prospect of a seasonal October rise in digital assets.<\/p>\n<p>Since 2013, digital gold has closed October in the green in ten of twelve years, according to CoinGlass. Hence its unofficial moniker <span data-descr=\"the term is formed from two English words: up and October\" class=\"old_tooltip\">Uptober<\/span>.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">10 days left until we enter Uptober.<\/p>\n<p>Do you understand? <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/h4Su5W03u1\">pic.twitter.com\/h4Su5W03u1<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Mister Crypto (@misterrcrypto) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/misterrcrypto\/status\/1969431859852689806?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 20, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Over the past 24 hours, bitcoin has dropped by more than 2.5%. At the time of writing, the asset trades around $112,700.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"602\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-a2944935e13a4ef9-4918478883048396-1024x602.png\" alt=\"image\" class=\"wp-image-266107\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-a2944935e13a4ef9-4918478883048396-1024x602.png 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-a2944935e13a4ef9-4918478883048396-300x176.png 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-a2944935e13a4ef9-4918478883048396-768x451.png 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-a2944935e13a4ef9-4918478883048396-1536x902.png 1536w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-a2944935e13a4ef9-4918478883048396.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Hourly BTC\/USDT chart on Binance. Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/ru.tradingview.com\/chart\/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT\">TradingView<\/a>.\u00a0<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The Fear and Greed Index slipped into \u201cfear\u201d \u2014 to 45.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"462\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-764e517842adfa33-4918537929374341-1024x462.png\" alt=\"Screenshot 2025-09-22 at 10:23:56\" class=\"wp-image-266108\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-764e517842adfa33-4918537929374341-1024x462.png 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-764e517842adfa33-4918537929374341-300x135.png 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-764e517842adfa33-4918537929374341-768x347.png 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-764e517842adfa33-4918537929374341-1536x693.png 1536w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-764e517842adfa33-4918537929374341.png 1564w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/alternative.me\/crypto\/fear-and-greed-index\/\">Alternative.me<\/a>. <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The case for Uptober\u00a0<\/h2>\n<p>Some analysts expect 2025 to be no exception for the first cryptocurrency. Bitcoin enthusiast Kyle Chasse <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/kyle_chasse\/status\/1969934169233928376\">pointed<\/a> to rising odds of another <span data-descr=\"US Federal Reserve\" class=\"old_tooltip\">Fed<\/span> rate cut next month.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"533\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-dc46d8cc5984be30-4918598604718365-1024x533.png\" alt=\"image\" class=\"wp-image-266109\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-dc46d8cc5984be30-4918598604718365-1024x533.png 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-dc46d8cc5984be30-4918598604718365-300x156.png 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-dc46d8cc5984be30-4918598604718365-768x399.png 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-dc46d8cc5984be30-4918598604718365-1536x799.png 1536w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-dc46d8cc5984be30-4918598604718365.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">91.9% of market participants expect a Fed rate cut in October. Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/markets\/interest-rates\/cme-fedwatch-tool.html\">CME FedWatch<\/a>.\u00a0<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>He says monetary easing is already priced in, and new liquidity is the \u201cfuel\u201d for crypto\u2019s advance.<\/p>\n<p>An analyst under the pseudonym Sykodelic called the latest drop expected.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Lower is coming.<\/p>\n<p>But then mucuuccuucchchhh higher sers.<\/p>\n<p>And you can then breathe a sigh of relief because you wont have to bend over your wifes bf.<\/p>\n<p>It&#8217;s ok\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Syko has got you \ud83d\ude09<\/p>\n<p>In all seriousness, as Ive been saying for a wee while, $112.5k is the number and when we get\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/TZoZF7WyTp\">https:\/\/t.co\/TZoZF7WyTp<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/vQpXGZkAQe\">pic.twitter.com\/vQpXGZkAQe<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Sykodelic \ud83d\udd2a (@Sykodelic_) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Sykodelic_\/status\/1969951576094806123?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 22, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u201cAs I have said, the target is $112,500. When we reach it, skeptics will once again talk about a market top. And once we power through that whining, we will immediately rip to new highs. That very powerful final phase will begin, the one that will take the market to euphoria: Ethereum will set fresh records, and altcoins will finally feel a surge of liquidity,\u201d he wrote.\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/CryptoHayes\/status\/1969227239792525816\">said<\/a> the crypto market will shift into growth mode once the US Treasury replenishes the <span data-descr=\"Treasury General Account, the US government's main operating account\" class=\"old_tooltip\">TGA<\/span> to its $850bn target. On 20 September, the balance stood at $807bn.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u201cOnce the liquidity restoration is complete, the rally will resume,\u201d the analyst noted.\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What do the sceptics say?\u00a0<\/h2>\n<p>The crypto trader CasiTrades believes bitcoin has topped this cycle. She says that on 18 September the first cryptocurrency reached the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at around $117,900. She called it one of the most common bearish turning points in a market cycle.\u00a0<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">\ud83d\udea8Is This the Top for Bitcoin?\ud83d\udea8<\/p>\n<p>Bitcoin is reaching the .618 retracement at $117,900. The textbook target for a potential Wave 2 pivot. I&#8217;ve been mentioning this level for a long time. It\u2019s one of the most common bearish turning points in the market cycle. All eyes should be\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/HpNS9gStuw\">pic.twitter.com\/HpNS9gStuw<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 CasiTrades \ud83d\udd25 (@CasiTrades) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/CasiTrades\/status\/1968743994373849119?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 18, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>A break below $113,000 would be key confirmation of a deeper slide. CasiTrades stressed that in that case the price of digital gold could fall to $96,000 or even $90,000.\u00a0<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u201cThe only thing that would invalidate this theory is if bitcoin breaks RSI resistance and makes new all-time highs. However, we are seeing all the classic signs that the market is peaking right here,\u201d she added.\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>On 20 September, an on-chain analyst under the pseudonym Reflection pointed to a repeat of the 2021 pattern by the first cryptocurrency, when after reaching an ATH above $69,000 the price swiftly fell to $32,000.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Are you ready?<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24BTC&#038;src=ctag&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$BTC<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/SLt9Fm0338\">pic.twitter.com\/SLt9Fm0338<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Reflection\ud83e\udea9 (@0xReflection) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/0xReflection\/status\/1969350486550524022?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 20, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Augustine Fan, head of research at SignalPlus, noted in comments to <a href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/crypto-analysts-question-uptober-as-markets-dip-80b\">Cointelegraph<\/a> that any potential pop would be weak amid record-low volatility and slowing ETF inflows. He also pointed to pressure from participants taking profits on the dip.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>In his view, long-term investors should be patient before new highs.<\/p>\n<p>BTSE\u2019s chief operating officer Jeff Mei doubted the arrival of Uptober because of macroeconomic uncertainty and the absence of a September slump.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u201cHowever, if the Fed announces more aggressive measures to stimulate the economy, the situation could change,\u201d he added.\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Earlier, ITC Crypto founder Benjamin Cowen <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/analyst-warns-bitcoin-could-plunge-by-70\">warned<\/a> of a possible 70% bitcoin crash.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As crypto markets correct, analysts are divided over the odds of an October rally in digital assets.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":89125,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"On 22 September bitcoin fell to $112,000","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[18,1146,1138],"class_list":["post-89124","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-bitcoin","tag-cryptocurrency-market-forecasts","tag-opinions"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"277","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"On 22 September bitcoin fell to $112,000","is_update":"0","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/89124","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=89124"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/89124\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":89126,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/89124\/revisions\/89126"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/89125"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=89124"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=89124"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=89124"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}