{"id":89219,"date":"2025-09-24T12:57:02","date_gmt":"2025-09-24T09:57:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=89219"},"modified":"2025-09-24T13:01:17","modified_gmt":"2025-09-24T10:01:17","slug":"bitcoins-volatility-poised-for-a-surge-analysts-predict","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/bitcoins-volatility-poised-for-a-surge-analysts-predict\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin&#8217;s Volatility Poised for a Surge, Analysts Predict"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The volatility of digital gold has reached a historic low. Weekly <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/bollinger-bands-using-the-indicator-in-crypto-trading\">Bollinger Bands<\/a> have contracted to a record narrow range, noted the analyst known as Mr. Anderson.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Bitcoin?src=hash&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Bitcoin<\/a>\u2019s weekly Bollinger Bands are now the tightest in history.<\/p>\n<p>What does that mean? On the weekly scale, each candle represents a week, and when volatility compresses this tightly, expansion always follows.<\/p>\n<p>Bollinger Bands measure volatility by tracking two standard\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/I41cwuHFF5\">pic.twitter.com\/I41cwuHFF5<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Mr. Anderson (@TrueCrypto28) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/TrueCrypto28\/status\/1970561583370609005?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 23, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>He added that once expansion begins, the price of the leading cryptocurrency almost always quickly tests the outer bands.<\/p>\n<p>An analyst under the pseudonym Frank pointed out that Bitcoin&#8217;s one-month implied volatility remains near historic lows at 30.9%.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">One-month implied volatility for <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24BTC&#038;src=ctag&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$BTC<\/a> remains at historic lows of 30.9%. <\/p>\n<p>The closest parallel was the 2023 \u201cStablecoin Summer\u201d when BTC chopped sideways between $26k and $29k for what seemed like eternity. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/03tvveE1PH\">pic.twitter.com\/03tvveE1PH<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Frank (@FrankAFetter) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/FrankAFetter\/status\/1969401017964855602?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 20, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>He drew a parallel with the \u201cStablecoin Summer\u201d of 2023, when the price of the leading cryptocurrency moved sideways between $26,000 and $29,000 for an extended period.<\/p>\n<p>Nassar Achkar, the strategy director at CoinW exchange, <a href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/bitcoin-bollinger-bands-tightest-in-history-calm-before-the-storm-say-analysts\">agrees<\/a>, describing the situation as the \u201ccalm before the storm.\u201d In his view, negative funding rates, seasonal trends, and institutional inflows into <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-is-a-cryptocurrency-etf\">ETFs<\/a> tilt the odds in favor of an increase.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cSuch a strong compression rarely passes quietly,\u201d<\/em> <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/langeriuseth\/status\/1970565049610829894\"><em>noted<\/em><\/a><em> Langerius, founder of Hunters of Web3.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>However, Glassnode researcher CryptoVizArt holds a different view. He stated that overall volatility is decreasing because Bitcoin is becoming \u201clarger\u201d over time.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">I truly believe there is a connection between lack of knowledge in math\/statistics and blindly utilizing technical indicators as predictive tools.<\/p>\n<p>Bollinger bands ~ Realized Volatility <\/p>\n<p>Bitcoin has been becoming larger and larger, hence less volatile. No matter weekly, monthly,\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/02WdbxjfWx\">https:\/\/t.co\/02WdbxjfWx<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 CryptoVizArt.\u20bf (@CryptoVizArt) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/CryptoVizArt\/status\/1970562899568439734?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 23, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Therefore, the narrowing of Bollinger Bands is merely an observation without real predictive value, the expert noted.<\/p>\n<p>Historically, strong compression has been followed by growth. In early July, the bands were very narrow when the asset was trading around $108,000. A few days later, volatility increased, and the price of digital gold reached a new all-time high above $122,000 by July 14.<\/p>\n<p>Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, explained the price weakening by whale activity.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">One reason why Bitcoin prices have weakened.<br \/>Whales are net selling:<br \/>\ud83d\udd38 -147K Bitcoin since August 21.<br \/>\ud83d\udd38Total balance declining at the fastest monthly rate of the cycle. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/w7mTI37BF2\">pic.twitter.com\/w7mTI37BF2<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Julio Moreno (@jjcmoreno) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/jjcmoreno\/status\/1970584419594383618?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 23, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>According to him, since August 21, large holders have sold 147,000 BTC. The total balance of whales is declining at the fastest monthly rate in the current cycle.<\/p>\n<p>Other experts cite CoinGlass data: Bitcoin has risen in price in 10 of the last 12 Octobers and in eight of the last 12 fourth quarters.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"582\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-062f6d77cb5090fd-5100413085563860-1024x582.png\" alt=\"\u0421\u043d\u0438\u043c\u043e\u043a \u044d\u043a\u0440\u0430\u043d\u0430 2025-09-24 121029\" class=\"wp-image-266289\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-062f6d77cb5090fd-5100413085563860-1024x582.png 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-062f6d77cb5090fd-5100413085563860-300x171.png 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-062f6d77cb5090fd-5100413085563860-768x437.png 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-062f6d77cb5090fd-5100413085563860.png 1470w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.coinglass.com\/today\">CoinGlass<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Earlier in September, CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/bitcoin-indicators-suggest-potential-bearish-turn\">identified<\/a> a worrying signal: many key bull market indicators have turned bearish.<\/p>\n<p>Later, Glassnode experts <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/glassnode-observes-weakening-demand-for-bitcoin\">identified<\/a> the cost of coins held by short-term holders as a key support level for digital gold.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin&#8217;s volatility has hit a historic low. Weekly Bollinger Bands have contracted to a record narrow range, noted analyst Mr. Anderson.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":89220,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"Bitcoin's volatility has reached a historic low, with Bollinger Bands at a record narrow range.","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[18,1146,1145],"class_list":["post-89219","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-bitcoin","tag-cryptocurrency-market-forecasts","tag-market-analysis"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"130","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"Bitcoin's volatility has reached a historic low, with Bollinger Bands at a record narrow range.","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/89219","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=89219"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/89219\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":89221,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/89219\/revisions\/89221"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/89220"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=89219"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=89219"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=89219"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}