{"id":89287,"date":"2025-09-26T13:03:32","date_gmt":"2025-09-26T10:03:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=89287"},"modified":"2025-09-26T13:07:07","modified_gmt":"2025-09-26T10:07:07","slug":"fear-index-drops-to-april-levels-as-analysts-see-a-turning-point-for-bitcoin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/fear-index-drops-to-april-levels-as-analysts-see-a-turning-point-for-bitcoin\/","title":{"rendered":"Fear index drops to April levels as analysts see a \u2018turning point\u2019 for bitcoin"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>As the leading cryptocurrency slipped below $109,000, the Fear and Greed Index <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/sec-and-finra-probe-dat-firms-over-suspected-insider-trading\">fell<\/a> from 44 to 28 points. Analyst Michael Pizzino called the current setup a \u201cturning point.\u201d<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">MORE fear and a HIGHER price.<\/p>\n<p>Could this be the turning point Bitcoin and Crypto has been waiting for?<\/p>\n<p>The analysis looks good, but it has not been confirmed.<\/p>\n<p>I explain all in this video:<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/FiZUJCb4Ry\">https:\/\/t.co\/FiZUJCb4Ry<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/PCoT7r2370\">pic.twitter.com\/PCoT7r2370<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Michael Pizzino (@PizzinoMichael) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/PizzinoMichael\/status\/1971389586116051228?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 26, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>The expert pointed to an emerging divergence between bitcoin\u2019s price and market sentiment.<\/p>\n<p>The last time the index dipped below 30, digital gold traded around $83,000. A few days earlier, the asset had breached a local low near $75,000.<\/p>\n<p>Against this backdrop, Pizzino suggested that conditions may be favourable for a reversal.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u201cCould this be the turning point that bitcoin and the crypto market have been waiting for? The analysis looks convincing, but it has not yet been confirmed,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>The Santiment platform <a href=\"https:\/\/app.santiment.net\/insights\/read\/bitcoin-s-mild-retrace-deserves-a-deep-dive-8913?utm_source=twitter&#038;utm_medium=post&#038;utm_campaign=twitter_bitcoin%27s_mild_retrace_b_092225\/&#038;fpr=twitter\">recorded<\/a> a spike in \u201cbuy the dip\u201d mentions after the leading cryptocurrency fell below $112,000 early in the week. Analysts suggested this could indicate a near-term rebound: prices often move counter to crowd expectations.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"523\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-6391972014a9fac4-5273522053024452-1024x523.png\" alt=\"image\" class=\"wp-image-266409\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-6391972014a9fac4-5273522053024452-1024x523.png 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-6391972014a9fac4-5273522053024452-300x153.png 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-6391972014a9fac4-5273522053024452-768x393.png 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-6391972014a9fac4-5273522053024452-1536x785.png 1536w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-6391972014a9fac4-5273522053024452.png 1651w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Source: Santiment.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u201cA negative narrative is forming on social media. After dropping below $114,000, euphoria quickly gave way to fear. However, its level is not yet high enough to speak of a true market capitulation \u2014 like that seen in early April (due to US President Donald Trump\u2019s trade tariffs) or mid-June (amid geopolitical turmoil),\u201d the experts said.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Santiment highlighted two \u201cencouraging signals\u201d:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>whales continue to accumulate digital gold \u2014 since 27 August, wallets holding 10\u201310,000 BTC have bought another 56,327 BTC;<\/li>\n<li>bitcoin supply on exchanges is falling \u2014 over four weeks the metric declined by 31,265 BTC.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>According to the analysts, these factors reduce selling pressure and limit the potential for further downside.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Not everyone is so optimistic<\/h2>\n<p>Meanwhile, Glassnode analysts <a href=\"https:\/\/insights.glassnode.com\/the-week-onchain-week-38-2025\/\">forecast<\/a> a deeper correction amid signs of \u201coverheating\u201d. In their view, long-term holders have sold 3.4 million BTC in the current market cycle.<\/p>\n<p>The share of profit-taking in the total volume of coins moved has exceeded 90% three times, and the market has just passed the third such peak.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-11d7291c58052c35-5273545618067762-1024x576.png\" alt=\"image\" class=\"wp-image-266410\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-11d7291c58052c35-5273545618067762-1024x576.png 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-11d7291c58052c35-5273545618067762-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-11d7291c58052c35-5273545618067762-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-11d7291c58052c35-5273545618067762-1536x864.png 1536w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-11d7291c58052c35-5273545618067762.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Source: Glassnode.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Historically, such surges have coincided with key cycle tops, increasing the likelihood of a \u201ccooling\u201d phase, the experts noted.<\/p>\n<p>They also <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/glassnode-observes-weakening-demand-for-bitcoin\">pointed to<\/a> a slowdown in inflows to bitcoin ETFs, which had previously offset selling by long-term holders.<\/p>\n<p>During the period around <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/fed-cuts-key-rate-bitcoin-holds-at-117000\">the most recent meeting of the <span data-descr=\"United States Federal Reserve System\" class=\"old_tooltip\">Fed<\/span><\/a>, the volume of realised coins surged to 122,000 BTC per month. Meanwhile, net inflows into exchange-traded funds fell from 2,600 BTC per day to almost zero.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-3a6266b3607d5683-5273567408335043-1024x576.png\" alt=\"image\" class=\"wp-image-266411\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-3a6266b3607d5683-5273567408335043-1024x576.png 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-3a6266b3607d5683-5273567408335043-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-3a6266b3607d5683-5273567408335043-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-3a6266b3607d5683-5273567408335043-1536x864.png 1536w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-3a6266b3607d5683-5273567408335043.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Source: Glassnode.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u201cThe combination of rising sell-side pressure and weakening institutional demand has created a fragile market setup, laying the groundwork for a decline,\u201d Glassnode said.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Markus Thielen of 10 Research <a href=\"https:\/\/update.10xresearch.com\/p\/the-q4-bitcoin-twist-no-one-sees-coming\">did not rule out<\/a> a fall in the leading cryptocurrency to around $107,000. Earlier, QCP analysts <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/qcp-warns-of-potential-bitcoin-drop-to-107000-and-ethereum-to-3300\">warned<\/a> of a risk of a decline towards that level.<\/p>\n<p>At the time of writing, the asset is trading at $109,500.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"598\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-d4a06c75b7f34b66-5273587327058917-1024x598.png\" alt=\"image\" class=\"wp-image-266412\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-d4a06c75b7f34b66-5273587327058917-1024x598.png 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-d4a06c75b7f34b66-5273587327058917-300x175.png 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-d4a06c75b7f34b66-5273587327058917-768x449.png 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-d4a06c75b7f34b66-5273587327058917-1536x897.png 1536w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-d4a06c75b7f34b66-5273587327058917.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Hourly chart of BTC\/USDT on Binance. Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/ru.tradingview.com\/chart\/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT\">TradingView<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Analysts <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/analysts-diverge-on-bitcoin-forecasts\">are split<\/a> on the outlook for digital gold.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As bitcoin fell below $109,000, the Fear and Greed Index fell from 44 to 28. An analyst called it a \u201cturning point.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":89288,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"Not all market participants are optimistic.","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[18,1273,1138,1478],"class_list":["post-89287","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-bitcoin","tag-glassnode","tag-opinions","tag-santiment"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"163","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"Not all market participants are optimistic.","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/89287","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=89287"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/89287\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":89289,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/89287\/revisions\/89289"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/89288"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=89287"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=89287"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=89287"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}