{"id":89367,"date":"2025-09-29T14:30:20","date_gmt":"2025-09-29T11:30:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=89367"},"modified":"2025-09-29T14:36:14","modified_gmt":"2025-09-29T11:36:14","slug":"glassnode-analysts-observe-bitcoin-speculator-capitulation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/glassnode-analysts-observe-bitcoin-speculator-capitulation\/","title":{"rendered":"Glassnode Analysts Observe Bitcoin Speculator Capitulation"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Researchers at the analytics firm Glassnode have suggested a &#8220;market reset,&#8221; given the low values of the <span data-descr=\"difference between unrealized profits and losses based on the last movement of coins\" class=\"old_tooltip\">NUPL<\/span> indicator in the context of <span data-descr=\"market participants holding bitcoin for less than 155 days\" class=\"old_tooltip\">short-term holders of the leading cryptocurrency<\/span>.<\/p>\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Bitcoin?src=hash&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Bitcoin<\/a> short-term holder NUPL has rolled into loss territory, signaling stress among recent buyers. <br \/>STH capitulation events have historically marked periods of market reset, often laying groundwork for renewed accumulation.<br \/>\ud83d\udd17<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Jz7M1I1b7e\">https:\/\/t.co\/Jz7M1I1b7e<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/PKBlULo8hM\">pic.twitter.com\/PKBlULo8hM<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 glassnode (@glassnode) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/glassnode\/status\/1972583819762139305?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 29, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>The indicator has fallen into the &#8220;loss zone,&#8221; signaling &#8220;stress among recent buyers.&#8221;<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>&#8220;Short-term investor capitulation has historically coincided with phases of market reset and often laid the foundation for new waves of accumulation,&#8221; explained the specialists.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Is the Correction Ending?<\/h2>\n<p>CryptoQuant contributor known as Darkfost believes the correction is nearing its end. According to his observations, when the <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-is-cryptos-fear-and-greed-index\">Fear and Greed Index<\/a> falls below 35, the market often finds itself at a local bottom.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">We\u2019re now approaching extreme Fear, and that\u2019s where things start to get interesting <\/p>\n<p>\ud83d\udca5 Historically, whenever the Fear &#038; Greed Index dropped below 35, we\u2019ve been close to a local bottom.<\/p>\n<p>In this cycle, that scenario has played out perfectly every single time. <br \/>If we get one\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/wfpUmXh9D6\">pic.twitter.com\/wfpUmXh9D6<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Darkfost_Coc\/status\/1972219470589407317?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 28, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>On September 28, the popular market sentiment indicator fell to 37, and shortly before that \u2014 <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/fear-index-drops-to-april-levels-as-analysts-see-a-turning-point-for-bitcoin\">to 28<\/a>. By the time of publication, the metric had recovered to neutral values around 50.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-c608ad258e795c58-5537729602086337.webp\" alt=\"fear_and_greed\" class=\"wp-image-266526\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index. Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/alternative.me\/crypto\/fear-and-greed-index\/\">Alternative<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>According to Darkfost, in the current cycle, the aforementioned scenario &#8220;has played out more than once.&#8221;<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>&#8220;If another drop occurs, leading short-term holders to losses and the index falls below 25, I will unhesitatingly increase my bitcoin position as part of a long-term strategy,&#8221; the researcher emphasized.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>The analyst also <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/Darkfost_Coc\/status\/1972035853540380728?t=A6M7Y7L8zLcDOfEKQULDlw&#038;s=35\">noted<\/a> that 36% of the digital gold supply held by this group of investors remains profitable:<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>&#8220;The value may seem modest. But in this cycle, each correction was accompanied by an almost complete reset of <span data-descr=\"short-term holders\" class=\"old_tooltip\">STH<\/span> profits \u2014 the indicator consistently fell below 5%.&#8221;<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Darkfost added that during such periods, digital gold usually trades below the realized price of short-term holders. At the time of publication, it <a href=\"https:\/\/charts.bitbo.io\/realized-price\/\">stands at ~$112,100<\/a>.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>&#8220;This leaves room for another decline, which could push almost all of them into losses,&#8221; the expert stressed.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>On the other hand, when nearly all bitcoin held by short-term holders is &#8220;in profit,&#8221; the market often approaches a local peak. This is confirmed by the rise in realized profits of STH, noted the technical analyst.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Five Stages of Market Maturity<\/h2>\n<p>CryptoQuant author Axel Adler Jr. stated that the market is evolving, so one should not expect exact repetitions of past patterns.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Don\u2019t expect the market to repeat itself,times change and so does perception. <\/p>\n<p>The market has already gone through five stages:<\/p>\n<p>1. Early wild volatility<br \/>2. Double peaks of the young cycle (stepwise distribution)<br \/>3. Plateau of a mature bullish impulse<br \/>4. Pendulum with shocks\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/eW4vXWr9cI\">pic.twitter.com\/eW4vXWr9cI<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Axel \ud83d\udc8e\ud83d\ude4c Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/AxelAdlerJr\/status\/1972559451681959974?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 29, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>The expert identified five stages of the crypto industry&#8217;s evolution:<\/p>\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>&#8220;Wild&#8221; volatility of early periods.<\/li>\n<li>Double peaks of the &#8220;young cycle&#8221; (stepwise distribution).<\/li>\n<li>Plateau of a mature bullish impulse.<\/li>\n<li>&#8220;Pendulum&#8221; with shocks (COVID-19 and <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/bitcoin-mining-in-2021-chinas-ban-reshaped-the-balance-of-power\">China&#8217;s mining ban<\/a>).<\/li>\n<li>Range compression by institutions (<a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-is-a-cryptocurrency-etf\">ETF<\/a> mode).<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>&#8220;Just hodl,&#8221; advised the analyst.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Earlier, experts at 21st Capital <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/bitcoin-price-predicted-to-reach-200000-researchers-say\">predicted<\/a> bitcoin&#8217;s rise to $200,000 after overcoming key resistance at $130,000.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Researchers at Glassnode suggest a &#8220;market reset,&#8221; considering low NUPL values among short-term holders.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":26216,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"Glassnode suggests a \"market reset\" due to low NUPL values among short-term holders.","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[18,1273,1145,1268],"class_list":["post-89367","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-bitcoin","tag-glassnode","tag-market-analysis","tag-on-chain-analysis"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"206","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"Glassnode suggests a \"market reset\" due to low NUPL values among short-term holders.","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/89367","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=89367"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/89367\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":89368,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/89367\/revisions\/89368"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/26216"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=89367"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=89367"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=89367"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}