{"id":89410,"date":"2025-09-30T13:20:00","date_gmt":"2025-09-30T10:20:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=89410"},"modified":"2025-09-30T13:22:54","modified_gmt":"2025-09-30T10:22:54","slug":"what-a-us-government-shutdown-would-mean-for-crypto","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/what-a-us-government-shutdown-would-mean-for-crypto\/","title":{"rendered":"What a US government shutdown would mean for crypto"},"content":{"rendered":"

The probability of a US government shutdown from October 1 has risen to 84% on Polymarket<\/a>. The threat of a shutdown poses risks for the cryptocurrency market, analysts warned.<\/p>\n

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Wagers on the likelihood of a US government shutdown in 2025 have exceeded $2.7 million. Source: Polymarket.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
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\u201cA shutdown of the US federal government is not just political games in Washington. It creates uncertainty that spills over into global markets, and cryptocurrencies feel this shock too,\u201d said AvaTrade chief market analyst Kate Lyman in a comment to DL News<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

The potential shutdown stems from a lack of agreement on the budget. Democrats are pushing to increase health-care funding. Republicans oppose it, proposing only to extend the budget temporarily until 21 November, Bloomberg<\/a> wrote.<\/p>\n

Earlier, US President Donald Trump predicted high odds of a shutdown.<\/p>\n

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\u201cWe will continue negotiations with the Democrats, but I believe the country may face a temporary cessation of government operations,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

According to Reuters<\/a>, US Vice President JD Vance noted<\/a> that such an outcome is \u201cinevitable\u201d.<\/p>\n

Implications for the crypto market<\/h2>\n

In the event of a shutdown, the government will stop publishing employment and inflation data. Without these signals, Lyman said, it becomes \u201charder to read the economy and predict the next moves of the Fed<\/span>\u201d.<\/p>\n

The Fed is considering a second key-rate cut in October. Monetary easing is usually a bullish factor for the crypto market<\/a>.<\/p>\n

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\u201cA shutdown [of the government] will slow critical progress on crypto policy,\u201d said<\/a> Blockchain Association representative Jessica Martinez in a conversation with CoinDesk.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

The CLARITY Act \u2014 a bill that would create a regulatory framework for the entire crypto sector \u2014 is currently before the authorities. On 18 July, the US Congress approved<\/a> it. Republicans had planned to pass the initiative by the end of September, but in the event of a shutdown the timeline will slip.<\/p>\n

A shutdown could also slow work at the SEC<\/span>, which is reviewing<\/a> applications for spot crypto ETFs and developing<\/a> rules for the crypto market.<\/p>\n

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\u201cA combination of less information and slower oversight usually unnerves risk markets. Cryptocurrencies, already sensitive to market sentiment, may display even sharper swings,\u201d Lyman said.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

What about bitcoin?<\/h2>\n

Investor Ted Pillows cited<\/a> historical data. In his view, the S&P 500 and the crypto market usually fall ahead of a US government shutdown.<\/p>\n

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\u201cI reckon this week it may cause significant volatility,\u201d he emphasised.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

A researcher under the pseudonym Zac agreed with this view. He called the shutdown \u201cpolitical theater with short-term costs, but no lasting market damage\u201d.<\/p>\n

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Government shutdowns = political theater, real short-term costs, no lasting market damage. Looming 2025 shutdown (Sept 30 fiscal year end, Oct 1 freeze) has ~66% odds priced in. <\/p>\n

Key difference now: Bitcoin and crypto are tied to macro cycles, liquidity flows, regulatory delays.\u2026 pic.twitter.com\/h857BFsfU5<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 \ud83d\udee1\ufe0fZac (@zacxbtc) September 23, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n