{"id":89726,"date":"2025-10-08T17:11:38","date_gmt":"2025-10-08T14:11:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=89726"},"modified":"2025-10-08T17:16:12","modified_gmt":"2025-10-08T14:16:12","slug":"k33-analysts-declare-the-end-of-bitcoins-four-year-cycle","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/k33-analysts-declare-the-end-of-bitcoins-four-year-cycle\/","title":{"rendered":"K33 Analysts Declare the End of Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle"},"content":{"rendered":"

The historical patterns that once dictated the dynamics of the first cryptocurrency are no longer relevant, according to K33 analysts<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n

They argue that Bitcoin’s movement now depends on institutional investors and macroeconomic policy, rather than the traditionally halving-related patterns.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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\u201cThe four-year cycle is dead, long live the new king,\u201d declared Vetle Lunde, head of research at the company.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

On October 6, digital gold reached<\/a> a historic high above $126,000. Since the beginning of the year, the asset’s price has risen by more than 30%, according to TradingView.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The expert emphasized that the current rally fundamentally differs from previous bullish phases. Lunde described it as the antithesis of past peaks.\u00a0<\/p>\n

A key point is the scale of institutional involvement. Over the week, spot Bitcoin-ETF<\/a> absorbed 31,600 BTC, and open interest on CME<\/span> increased by 15,000 BTC. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin has become a significant part of the global market, noted the analyst.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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Chart of nominal Bitcoin exposure considering open interest in perpetual contracts, futures, and ETFs. Source: K33. <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Lunde acknowledged signs of market overheating. However, he expects only a short-term consolidation rather than a structural reversal.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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\u201cIf in 2021 the peak coincided with monetary tightening and post-COVID caution, now [Donald Trump] is likely to replace [Jerome Powell] with his appointee who will lower rates\u2014it’s like pouring gasoline on the fire even without expansionist policy. On the horizon is an era of liquidity abundance, not austerity. This scenario favours scarce assets like Bitcoin,\u201d explained the analyst.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

In the past 24 hours, the first cryptocurrency corrected by 2%. At the time of writing, digital gold is trading around $122,600.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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Hourly BTC\/USDT chart on Binance. Source: TradingView<\/a>.\u00a0<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Swissblock analysts recorded an increase in selling pressure from short-term holders and described the price decline as a \u201chealthy correction.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

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BTC Net Realized Profit\/Loss shows short-term selling pressure emerging after Bitcoin\u2019s new ATH near $126K.<\/p>\n

Investors are taking profits, but unlike past tops, this wave looks controlled, not panic-driven.
Conviction remains strong.<\/p>\n

This has the signs of being a healthy cooling\u2026 pic.twitter.com\/HE09JUh6eQ<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 Swissblock (@swissblock__) October 8, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n