{"id":89770,"date":"2025-10-09T17:50:24","date_gmt":"2025-10-09T14:50:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=89770"},"modified":"2025-10-09T17:57:41","modified_gmt":"2025-10-09T14:57:41","slug":"monetary-policy-has-broken-bitcoins-historical-cycles-says-arthur-hayes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/monetary-policy-has-broken-bitcoins-historical-cycles-says-arthur-hayes\/","title":{"rendered":"Monetary policy has broken bitcoin\u2019s historical cycles, says Arthur Hayes"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes says the crypto market\u2019s four-year cycle is no longer relevant. In his view, price action is driven by central banks\u2019 monetary policy rather than historical patterns linked to the <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-is-the-bitcoin-halving\">halving<\/a>.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">\u201cLong Live the King!\u201d an essay on why the <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24BTC&#038;src=ctag&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$BTC<\/a> 4yr cycle is dead. <\/p>\n<p> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/7RldfQVqT5\">https:\/\/t.co\/7RldfQVqT5<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/CryptoHayes\/status\/1976120410027721015?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 9, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>The expert argues that traders are wrongly expecting the bull market to end by referencing past cycles. He maintains that earlier uptrends ended because monetary conditions tightened, not \u201con schedule\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>According to Hayes, the current cycle differs in several respects:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The US Treasury continues to pump liquidity into markets via issuance of government bonds;<\/li>\n<li>measures to ease bank regulation to stimulate lending are under discussion;<\/li>\n<li>the Fed has resumed cutting interest rates despite inflation running above target.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>He recalled how monetary policy influenced the market in the past:<\/p>\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>First cycle.<\/strong> The rally coincided with the Fed\u2019s quantitative easing and credit expansion in China. It ended when both central banks slowed money creation in late 2013.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Second cycle (\u201cICO boom\u201d).<\/strong> It was driven mainly by a \u201cborrowing surge\u201d in China. The market collapsed after lending in China slowed and dollar conditions tightened.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Third cycle (\u201cCOVID-19\u201d).<\/strong> The market rose exclusively on dollar liquidity. The trend ended amid Fed tightening in late 2021.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>In Hayes\u2019s view, China will not be the main driver of the rally this time, but neither will it hinder it. The authorities are shifting from restraint to a neutral or moderately stimulative stance. That removes an obstacle that could have interrupted the cycle.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cListen to our monetary masters in Washington and Beijing. They are clearly saying that money will become cheaper and more available. Therefore bitcoin keeps rising in anticipation of that future,\u201d he concluded.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Fed\u2019s influence<\/h2>\n<p>The price of the first cryptocurrency stabilised after the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/newsevents\/pressreleases\/monetary20251008a.htm\">publication<\/a> of the minutes of the Fed\u2019s September meeting. The document showed that most officials support further cuts to the <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/how-the-feds-policy-rate-affects-cryptocurrency-prices\">policy rate<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Roughly half of the committee favours two more easings by year-end. Analysts say this strengthens expectations of more benign financial conditions in the fourth quarter.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cThe global liquidity cycle is changing. Central banks are shifting from tightening to easing,\u201d \u2014 <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.theblock.co\/post\/373988\/bitcoin-holds-near-122000-after-fed-minutes-signal-more-cuts-this-year\"><em>said<\/em><\/a><em> BRN\u2019s head of research, Tim Misir.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>He added that markets now assign a 90% probability to a Fed cut in October. According to Misir, such synchronised easing has historically supported risk assets and bitcoin bull cycles.<\/p>\n<p>At the time of writing, bitcoin trades around $123,400, up 0.5% over 24 hours, according to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.coingecko.com\/en\/coins\/bitcoin\">CoinGecko<\/a>.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"630\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-267dda8c7ff4581a-6413936339640837-1024x630.png\" alt=\"BTCUSDT_2025-10-09_16-21-12\" class=\"wp-image-267281\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-267dda8c7ff4581a-6413936339640837-1024x630.png 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-267dda8c7ff4581a-6413936339640837-300x184.png 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-267dda8c7ff4581a-6413936339640837-768x472.png 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-267dda8c7ff4581a-6413936339640837.png 1428w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">15-minute BTC\/USDT chart on Binance. Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/chart\/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT\">TradingView<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Inflows into crypto funds remain positive. From 26 September to 4 October, investors allocated a record <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/cryptocurrency-products-attract-record-5-95-billion-in-a-week\">$5.95 billion<\/a> to <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-is-a-cryptocurrency-etf\">ETF<\/a>.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cInflows into exchange-traded instruments are the cleanest signal of institutional interest,\u201d said the CEO of the startup Function, Thomas Chen.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Wincent\u2019s Paul Howard added that the recent inflows \u201chelped cement a new price floor ahead of a year-end rally\u201d.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Community forecasts<\/h2>\n<p>According to CME FedWatch, market participants put the probability of a cut to the key rate at 96.7%.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"657\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-57191288ce73eb22-6413982732733897-1024x657.png\" alt=\"\u0421\u043d\u0438\u043c\u043e\u043a \u044d\u043a\u0440\u0430\u043d\u0430 2025-10-09 162840\" class=\"wp-image-267282\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-57191288ce73eb22-6413982732733897-1024x657.png 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-57191288ce73eb22-6413982732733897-300x192.png 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-57191288ce73eb22-6413982732733897-768x493.png 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-57191288ce73eb22-6413982732733897.png 1063w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/markets\/interest-rates\/cme-fedwatch-tool.html\">CME FedWatch<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Traders on the <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-is-polymarket\">Polymarket <\/a>platform put a 91% probability on a 25-basis-point cut at the 29 October meeting.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"286\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-c17b3e34b0822709-6414007059209484-1024x286.png\" alt=\"\u0421\u043d\u0438\u043c\u043e\u043a \u044d\u043a\u0440\u0430\u043d\u0430 2025-10-09 162951\" class=\"wp-image-267283\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-c17b3e34b0822709-6414007059209484-1024x286.png 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-c17b3e34b0822709-6414007059209484-300x84.png 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-c17b3e34b0822709-6414007059209484-768x214.png 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-c17b3e34b0822709-6414007059209484.png 1284w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/dashboards\/fed-rates\">Polymarket<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Analysts see a short-term range for digital gold at $121,000\u2013126,000. A decisive break above the upper bound would open the way to $130,000.<\/p>\n<p>Open interest in bitcoin options exceeds $50 billion.<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" width=\"100%\" height=\"420\" frameborder=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/www.theblock.co\/data\/crypto-markets\/options\/aggregated-open-interest-of-bitcoin-options\/embed\" title=\"Aggregated Open Interest of Bitcoin Options\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>Further price action depends on the pace of Fed easing and sustained demand from ETFs.<\/p>\n<p>Earlier, K33 analysts <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/k33-analysts-declare-the-end-of-bitcoins-four-year-cycle\">said<\/a> that the historical regularities that used to define the first cryptocurrency\u2019s trajectory are no longer relevant.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Arthur Hayes says the crypto market\u2019s four-year cycle is dead, with central-bank policy now driving prices.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":89771,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"Arthur Hayes says bitcoin\u2019s four-year cycle is dead; central banks now drive prices.","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[1193,18,1249,1138],"class_list":["post-89770","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-arthur-hayes","tag-bitcoin","tag-federal-reserve-system","tag-opinions"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"566","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"Arthur Hayes says bitcoin\u2019s four-year cycle is dead; central banks now drive prices.","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/89770","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=89770"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/89770\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":89772,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/89770\/revisions\/89772"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/89771"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=89770"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=89770"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=89770"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}