{"id":89809,"date":"2025-10-10T14:20:30","date_gmt":"2025-10-10T11:20:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=89809"},"modified":"2025-10-10T17:43:58","modified_gmt":"2025-10-10T14:43:58","slug":"bitcoin-may-overheat-around-180000-analyst-says","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/bitcoin-may-overheat-around-180000-analyst-says\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin may \u2018overheat\u2019 around $180,000, analyst says"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Crypto markets remain far from overbought, leaving room for the rally to extend, according to analyst Frank Fetter, who cites the Mayer Multiple.<\/p>\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Bitcoin is at all-time highs and the Mayer Multiple is ice cold. I like the setup. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24BTC&#038;src=ctag&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$BTC<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/I5pNkydV2l\">pic.twitter.com\/I5pNkydV2l<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Frank (@FrankAFetter) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/FrankAFetter\/status\/1976423479512838168?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 9, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>&#8220;Bitcoin is near <span data-descr=\"all-time high of the indicator\" class=\"old_tooltip\">ATH<\/span>, and the Mayer Multiple is just ice cold. I like this setup,&#8221; the analyst said.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>The metric tracks deviations from the 200-day simple moving average (MA). These help identify speculative bubbles and periods of seller exhaustion that often precede a long-term trend reversal higher.<\/p>\n<p>Readings above 1 mean bitcoin trades above its 200-day MA; below 1 means price is under the 200-day MA.<\/p>\n<p>Historically, a Mayer Multiple above 2.4 signals a speculative bubble. The metric\u2019s creator and Bitcoin Knowledge host Trace Mayer argues investors achieve the best long-term results when most accumulation occurs with readings below 2.4.<\/p>\n<p>At the time of writing, the Mayer Multiple is 1.14. Digital gold changes hands around $121,360 \u2014 3.6% below the ATH reached on October 6 (per <a href=\"https:\/\/www.coingecko.com\/en\/coins\/bitcoin\">CoinGecko<\/a>).<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-a2834376314e2d65-6487766713672729-1024x576.png\" alt=\"graph\" class=\"wp-image-267311\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-a2834376314e2d65-6487766713672729-1024x576.png 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-a2834376314e2d65-6487766713672729-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-a2834376314e2d65-6487766713672729-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-a2834376314e2d65-6487766713672729.png 1155w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Mayer Multiple dynamics. Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/charts.bitbo.io\/mayermultiple\/\">Bitbo<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Fetter\u2019s attached chart highlights $180,000 as the level corresponding to the \u201cspeculative\u201d 2.4 threshold.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Fuel for further gains<\/h2>\n<p>Readings are markedly lower than in prior market phases. In the current cycle, the peak was 1.84 in March 2024, when bitcoin traded around $72,000.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-66c6373bd64ecfa2-6493421845496355-1024x576.png\" alt=\"Mayer\" class=\"wp-image-267324\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-66c6373bd64ecfa2-6493421845496355-1024x576.png 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-66c6373bd64ecfa2-6493421845496355-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-66c6373bd64ecfa2-6493421845496355-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-66c6373bd64ecfa2-6493421845496355-1536x864.png 1536w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-66c6373bd64ecfa2-6493421845496355-2048x1152.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Mayer Multiple dynamics. Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/studio.glassnode.com\/charts\/37581dcc-55c4-4156-6ad4-b9eb6216089f?zoom=all\">Glassnode<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>In July, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. said that readings near 1.1 can be seen as a kind of \u201cfuel reserve\u201d for a fresh impulse higher.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The Bitcoin Mayer Multiple is another classic model in analysis. Currently, the metric stands at 1.1\u0445 (price to 200-day moving average), which falls within the neutral zone (0.8\u20131.5\u0445) and is significantly below overbought thresholds (1.5\u0445).<\/p>\n<p>Today&#8217;s Mayer Multiple indicates that\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/xqhfnNm051\">pic.twitter.com\/xqhfnNm051<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Axel \ud83d\udc8e\ud83d\ude4c Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/AxelAdlerJr\/status\/1942487369359450368?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">July 8, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What do other metrics say?<\/h2>\n<p>Glassnode analysts note that bitcoin trades above the short-term holders\u2019 (STH) cost basis.<\/p>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/telegram.org\/js\/telegram-widget.js?22\" data-telegram-post=\"glassnode\/1314\" data-width=\"100%\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>&#8220;The rally remains below the overheat zone (+1 <span data-descr=\"standard deviation\" class=\"old_tooltip\">STD<\/span>). This suggests a strong impulse persists, but also that short-term risk levels are approaching,&#8221; the researchers explained.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>The company also points to \u201cmoderate\u201d profit-taking as realized gains rise.<\/p>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/telegram.org\/js\/telegram-widget.js?22\" data-telegram-post=\"cryptoquant_official\/3253\" data-width=\"100%\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>&#8220;There are no signs of a price top yet \u2014 unlike December 2021, when the advance began to slow,&#8221; the experts observed.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Still Uptober?<\/h2>\n<p>Many analysts see the pullback as a pause rather than the start of a reversal.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>&#8220;Short-term holders took profits, some leveraged longs were liquidated, but long-term holders\u2019 supply remains untouched,&#8221; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theblock.co\/post\/374110\/bitcoin-dips-uptober-still-intact\">noted<\/a> Arctic Digital analyst Justin d\u2019Anethan in a conversation with The Block.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>He also noted that inflows into spot <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-is-a-cryptocurrency-etf\">bitcoin ETFs<\/a> remain substantial, while exchange balances have fallen to a six-year low.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"530\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-cf06c5a083fbc8ba-6496101104315264-1024x530.png\" alt=\"BTC_ETF_inflows\" class=\"wp-image-267336\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-cf06c5a083fbc8ba-6496101104315264-1024x530.png 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-cf06c5a083fbc8ba-6496101104315264-300x155.png 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-cf06c5a083fbc8ba-6496101104315264-768x397.png 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-cf06c5a083fbc8ba-6496101104315264.png 1199w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Net inflows into spot bitcoin ETFs have continued for nine straight trading sessions. Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/sosovalue.com\/assets\/etf\/us-btc-spot\">SoSoValue<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>According to Glassnode, institutional demand remains resilient despite a <a href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/glassnode\/1316\">\u201cleverage reset\u201d<\/a> in derivatives markets.<\/p>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/telegram.org\/js\/telegram-widget.js?22\" data-telegram-post=\"glassnode\/1317\" data-width=\"100%\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>&#8220;This indicates that constructive buying continues to support the market, helping to smooth volatility and steady price action,&#8221; the experts said.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>In d\u2019Anethan\u2019s view, the market is under pressure from macro factors: a stronger dollar, persistently high yields and uncertainty around further <span data-descr=\"US Federal Reserve System\" class=\"old_tooltip\">Fed<\/span> rate decisions.<\/p>\n<p>The US is undergoing a partial <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/bitcoin-tops-116000-as-us-government-shuts-down\">shutdown<\/a>. Analysts <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-a-us-government-shutdown-would-mean-for-crypto\">note<\/a> that such episodes typically boost interest in havens like gold and bitcoin.<\/p>\n<p>Fed chair Jerome Powell has been equivocal on the prospects for monetary easing, but the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/markets\/interest-rates\/cme-fedwatch-tool.html\">FedWatch<\/a> tool from <span data-descr=\"Chicago Mercantile Exchange\" class=\"old_tooltip\">CME<\/span> assigns a 94.6% probability of another cut at month-end.<\/p>\n<p>Kronos Research CIO Vincent Liu said sentiment remains \u201cmixed but resilient,\u201d with long-term investors continuing to accumulate. Thus, the <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/analysts-predict-uptober-despite-market-fear-signals\">Uptober narrative <\/a>endures \u2014 market structure is stable despite a modest pullback.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>&#8220;Historically, bitcoin has risen an average of 22% in October, and Ethereum about 5%. This trend fuels the Uptober narrative. [\u2026] On-chain data show ongoing accumulation and resilient positioning, though macro uncertainty remains a meaningful part of the equation,&#8221; Liu said.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>According to d\u2019Anethan, his October outlook remains moderately bullish, though the advance may be less brisk.<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, Presto Research analyst Min Jeong argued the market lacks a dominant narrative.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>&#8220;For now, traders should watch macro indicators and policy-linked headlines \u2014 they will set the tone for crypto in the near term,&#8221; she said.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Former BitMEX head Arthur Hayes <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/monetary-policy-has-broken-bitcoins-historical-cycles-says-arthur-hayes\">said<\/a> the customary four-year crypto-market cycle has lost relevance.<\/p>\n<p>In his view, price action is now driven by central-bank monetary policy rather than historical patterns tied to <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-is-the-bitcoin-halving\">the halving<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Crypto markets are still far from overbought, leaving scope for the rally to continue, says analyst Frank Fetter, citing the Mayer Multiple.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":89810,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"Fetter sees room for a Bitcoin rally as the Mayer Multiple stays subdued.","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[18,1145,1268,1253],"class_list":["post-89809","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-bitcoin","tag-market-analysis","tag-on-chain-analysis","tag-technical-analysis"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"226","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"Fetter sees room for a Bitcoin rally as the Mayer Multiple stays subdued.","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/89809","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=89809"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/89809\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":89811,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/89809\/revisions\/89811"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/89810"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=89809"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=89809"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=89809"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}