{"id":89872,"date":"2025-10-14T12:49:41","date_gmt":"2025-10-14T09:49:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=89872"},"modified":"2025-10-14T12:52:41","modified_gmt":"2025-10-14T09:52:41","slug":"analyst-bitcoin-passed-a-maturity-test","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/analyst-bitcoin-passed-a-maturity-test\/","title":{"rendered":"Analyst: Bitcoin passed a maturity test"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"wp-block-text-wrappers-disclamer article_disclamer\"><span class=\"gtb_text-wrappers_disclamer_head\">Disclaimer<\/span><\/p>\n<p>This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. ForkLog is not responsible for readers\u2019 decisions.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>The recent market drop was not a panic sell-off but a controlled reduction of leverage \u2014 deleveraging. CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. sees it as a sign of market maturity.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">During Friday\u2019s crash, spot volume hit $44B (near cycle highs), futures $128B, while OI dropped $14B with only $1B in BTC long liquidations. 93% of OI decline wasn\u2019t forced \u2014 this was a controlled deleveraging, not a cascade.<\/p>\n<p>\ud83d\udc49 A very mature moment for Bitcoin. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/sTrziRUXXo\">pic.twitter.com\/sTrziRUXXo<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Axel \ud83d\udc8e\ud83d\ude4c Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/AxelAdlerJr\/status\/1977951840344883259?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 14, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>According to him, during the <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/black-saturday-11-october-what-happened\">11 October correction<\/a> spot trading volume reached $44bn, near cycle highs. Futures volume was $128bn.<\/p>\n<p>Open interest (OI) fell by $14bn, while forced liquidations of bitcoin long positions were just $1bn.<\/p>\n<p>Ninety-three percent of the OI decline was not driven by liquidations \u2014 traders closed positions voluntarily and cut risk.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">A necessary reset<\/h2>\n<p>Glassnode added detail. By its count, more than $19bn of open interest was washed out. Funding rates on the futures market plunged to levels last seen in the 2022 bear phase.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Bitcoin?src=hash&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Bitcoin<\/a> endured its largest leverage wipeout in history, with $19B in open interest erased and funding collapsing. The market is now recalibrating amid slower momentum, cooling profit-taking, and steady ETF demand.<\/p>\n<p>Read more in this week\u2019s Market Pulse\ud83d\udc47<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/56joxJ5xtb\">https:\/\/t.co\/56joxJ5xtb<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Po5a8jEo1B\">pic.twitter.com\/Po5a8jEo1B<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 glassnode (@glassnode) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/glassnode\/status\/1977811105520267500?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 13, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Technical indicators confirm the shift in sentiment: buying pressure eased and aggressive selling dominated short-term flows. The drop in futures open interest signals a broad de-risking.<\/p>\n<p>Despite the scale, the market\u2019s structure held up. Spot volumes remain elevated, <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-is-a-cryptocurrency-etf\">ETF<\/a> inflows continue, and on-chain activity remains high.<\/p>\n<p>Experts say this suggests that highly leveraged participants were flushed out, while the capital structure and institutional demand remained intact.<\/p>\n<p>In options, open interest rose as traders rebalanced positions for the new volatility regime. A modest increase in skew points to renewed demand for downside protection.<\/p>\n<p>Glassnode calls it a significant but necessary reset. The market is now entering a consolidation phase defined by caution and a more measured approach to risk across spot and derivatives.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Time for altcoins?<\/h2>\n<p>Another CryptoQuant analyst, known as Darkfost, argues that amid \u201cextreme fear\u201d it is time to accumulate altcoins.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">\ud83d\udccaExtreme fear in Altcoins : Time to accumulate ?<\/p>\n<p>The best time to gain exposure to altcoins is often when no one wants them anymore. <br \/>It\u2019s precisely during these periods of disinterest that the market tends to offer the best medium-term opportunities. <br \/>The chart below shows the\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/5alY70qLn3\">pic.twitter.com\/5alY70qLn3<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Darkfost_Coc\/status\/1977839341192827004?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 13, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>In his view, the best entries come when \u201cno one wants them.\u201d He pointed to the share of altcoins on Binance trading above their 200-day moving average.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cToday, only 10% of altcoins on Binance remain above this key metric. In other words, 90% of the market is below its long-term trend, which is a clear sign of pervasive lack of interest,\u201d the expert explained.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>He noted that each time in the current cycle the metric fell to similar levels, the market soon posted a notable short-term rebound.<\/p>\n<p>According to Darkfost, there is still time to enter altcoins, but one should choose strong projects that have retained liquidity and on-chain activity. He advised not to wait too long \u2014 the market returns to normal quickly.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">DeFi\u2019s reaction<\/h2>\n<p>The sharp move also hit DeFi. According to DeFi Llama, open interest on <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/perp-dex-old-tricks-new-tech\">Perp-DEX<\/a> collapsed from $26bn to under $14bn.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">What Friday&#8217;s flash crash looked like in onchain metrics: <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/aNZF7mKvVk\">pic.twitter.com\/aNZF7mKvVk<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 DefiLlama.com (@DefiLlama) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/DefiLlama\/status\/1977916947669918079?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 14, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Lending protocols accrued over $20m in fees, a new all-time high. Weekly trading volume on <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-is-a-decentralised-exchange-dex\">DEX<\/a> topped $177bn, also a record.<\/p>\n<p>Total borrowing in <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-are-cross-chain-bridges\">cross-chain<\/a>-lending protocols fell below $50bn for the first time since August. Amid the turmoil, stETH yields briefly topped 7%.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Stablecoin inflows ahead of CPI<\/h2>\n<p>CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn flagged an influx of <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-are-stablecoins\">\u201cstablecoins\u201d<\/a> to exchanges after the drop.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-0cdb90b057d279f3-6827907778823107.webp\" alt=\"\u0421\u043d\u0438\u043c\u043e\u043a \u044d\u043a\u0440\u0430\u043d\u0430 2025-10-14 121208\" class=\"wp-image-267523\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoquant.com\/insights\/quicktake\/68edede33272c84398d73f6b-Binance-Leads-Stablecoin-Influx-Ahead-of-CPI\">CryptoQuant<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The $3.2bn inflow was among the largest in the past month. He sees it as traders preparing for potential swings ahead of the US inflation print (CPI).<\/p>\n<p>Change in stablecoin (USDT + USDC, ERC-20) reserves over 30 days:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Binance: +$1.423bn;<\/li>\n<li>Bybit: +$1.228bn;<\/li>\n<li>OKX: +$1.114bn;<\/li>\n<li>other exchanges: -$549.6m.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>If CPI undershoots forecasts, that could spur a rally \u2014 traders may deploy dry powder into bitcoin and altcoins. <\/p>\n<p>Conversely, if inflation beats expectations, the same funds may stay sidelined, signalling caution and the potential for further declines, Maartunn concluded.<\/p>\n<p>Earlier, Santiment analyst Brian Q <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/analyst-sees-retail-investor-panic-as-a-bitcoin-buying-signal\">said<\/a> that fear and uncertainty among retail investors remain one of the most accurate signals for accumulating the first cryptocurrency.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The sell-off was not a panic cascade but a controlled deleveraging. Analyst Axel Adler Jr. sees it as a sign of market maturity.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":89873,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"CryptoQuant analyst: Bitcoin\u2019s drop was controlled deleveraging, a sign of maturity.","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[18,1146,1145,1138],"class_list":["post-89872","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-bitcoin","tag-cryptocurrency-market-forecasts","tag-market-analysis","tag-opinions"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"229","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"CryptoQuant analyst: Bitcoin\u2019s drop was controlled deleveraging, a sign of maturity.","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/89872","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=89872"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/89872\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":89874,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/89872\/revisions\/89874"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/89873"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=89872"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=89872"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=89872"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}