{"id":90182,"date":"2025-10-23T11:14:40","date_gmt":"2025-10-23T08:14:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=90182"},"modified":"2025-12-04T06:58:23","modified_gmt":"2025-12-04T03:58:23","slug":"whales-adl-and-the-end-of-the-bull-what-really-happened-on-cryptos-black-saturday","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/whales-adl-and-the-end-of-the-bull-what-really-happened-on-cryptos-black-saturday\/","title":{"rendered":"Dissecting the “Black Saturday” Market Meltdown"},"content":{"rendered":"

Every market crash in crypto reliably sets off a wave of conjecture and pronouncements from the \u201cenlightened\u201d. Some hunt for \u201cco-ordinated attacks\u201d and hidden manipulators; others blame bots, liquidity or supposed leaks of insider information.<\/p>\n

In reality, markets often collapse under their own weight\u2014leverage, liquidations and brittle trust. They move like a single living organism.<\/p>\n

October\u2019s sharp reversal was no exception. After a rapid climb the market overheated, and a chain of liquidations quickly turned into an avalanche.<\/p>\n

In this article we examine how \u0430\u0432\u0442\u043e\u0434\u0435\u043b\u0435\u0432\u0435\u0440\u0438\u0434\u0436\u0438\u043d\u0433\u0430<\/span> worked, why it should be taken seriously, and what analysts say about the chances of the rally resuming.<\/p>\n

The fragility of an overheated market<\/h2>\n

Early October fit the so\u2011called \u201cUptober<\/span> narrative\u201d: bitcoin\u2019s price marched toward fresh highs, setting a record above $125,000<\/a>.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Industry experts spoke in unison about an acute shortage of coins on exchanges, \u201chealthy dynamics\u201d<\/a> and other preconditions for the first cryptocurrency to climb to $200,000<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\"img-c29b2c882aa60cde-7598251573187262\"
Since June, balances on centralized exchanges have trended lower after a sharp, brief jump in May. Source: Coin Metrics<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The correction was sudden. On the night of October 10\u201311, bitcoin fell below $111,000<\/a>, recording for the first time a $20,000 daily candle \u2014 on the largest crypto exchange, Binance, the price briefly dropped to $102,000.<\/p>\n

\"img-b380b569f66abc7c-7598253410489800\"
A sharp correction amid surges in trading volumes. Binance BTC\/USDT four\u2011hour chart. Source: TradingView<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Liquidations across crypto exceeded $19bn, the largest on record. The total market capitalization of digital assets fell by almost $660bn in a day.<\/p>\n

\"img-afbdb8abb9422295-7598256800322187\"
Liquidations on \u201cblack Saturday\u201d; long positions dominated by a wide margin. Source: CoinGlass<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Ethereum dipped below $3,500, and less\u2011trafficked altcoins faced even stiffer pressure\u2014many shed tens of percent.<\/p>\n

After the industry\u2019s record liquidation tally, the market sentiment indicator<\/a> fell to 22, signalling \u201cextreme fear\u201d among participants. Similar readings were last seen in April, when the price of the first cryptocurrency fell below $80,000.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Notably, even after prices recovered above $110,000<\/a> the gauge has struggled to reach 30, still implying \u201cfear\u201d.\u00a0<\/p>\n

As sentiment soured, steady inflows into bitcoin ETFs<\/a> turned into outflows.<\/p>\n

\"img-56a5868e2c709b97-7598259505111384\"
Flows into and out of spot bitcoin ETFs. Source: SoSoValue<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Many experts linked<\/a> the panic to a post by US president Donald Trump on Truth Social. In an October 10 post he said<\/a> 100% tariffs on Chinese imports could be introduced from November 1.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Equity markets reacted first: the Nasdaq and S&P 500 fell by 3.5%<\/a> and 2.7%<\/a> respectively, before the gloom spilled into cryptocurrencies.<\/p>\n

There were casualties<\/h2>\n

On October 11 police in Kyiv\u2019s Obolonskyi district found<\/a> the body of a 32\u2011year\u2011old man with a gunshot wound to the head in his car.<\/p>\n

It later emerged the deceased was a well\u2011known crypto blogger, trader and CEO of Cryptology, Kostya Kudo (real name\u2014Konstantin Hanich). The leading theory is suicide amid the crypto\u2011market crash.<\/p>\n

The body was found in his Lamborghini Urus. A firearm registered to the blogger lay nearby.<\/p>\n

\"img-391b4696d00f59d0-7598261591599786\"
The car in which Kostya Kudo shot himself. Source: National Police of Ukraine.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
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\u201cOn the eve of his death, the man told relatives he was depressed because of financial difficulties and sent them a farewell message,\u201d the police statement said.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

In his last Instagram post on September 27, Kudo wrote about the illusory well\u2011being of peers, stressing that many in fact face severe financial difficulties due to debt and a \u201cdesire to match the pretty picture\u201d.<\/p>\n

The most likely unofficial version is significant trading losses. On the eve of the tragedy he said he might have \u201cblown\u201d up to $1.3m but hoped to return investors\u2019 funds. The real losses appear to have been much larger.<\/p>\n

According to anonymous sources cited by UNIAN<\/a>, the blogger may have lost all entrusted investor funds\u2014about $7m\u2014as well as his own capital. Other sources put the losses as high as $30m.<\/p>\n

Suicides amid falling prices are hardly new.<\/p>\n

In February, 23\u2011year\u2011old Arnold Robert Garro took his own life<\/a> on a livestream on X, urging viewers to \u201cmake a memecoin out of [his] death\u201d. Some suggested his act was linked to financial losses, but his family stressed he suffered from severe depression.<\/p>\n

In July 2023, the body of Argentine businessman and crypto millionaire Fernando P\u00e9rez Algaba was found<\/a>. He was known for a love of luxury and often posted images of expensive cars and a carefree life on Instagram.<\/p>\n

His death has been linked to a conflict with a local criminal group over finances. A note on his phone said he had lost most of his crypto assets.<\/p>\n

\u201cStable\u201d coins<\/h2>\n

The crash triggered liquidations affecting more than 1.6m traders, most of whom were active on Binance and Hyperliquid<\/a>. Some market participants suggested mass closures on the largest CEX<\/span> were a \u201cco\u2011ordinated attack\u201d that forced prices lower.<\/p>\n

Journalist Colin Wu was among the first to argue<\/a> this. He said attackers exploited a vulnerability in the Unified Account<\/span> feature, which allowed using the stablecoin<\/a> USDe as collateral.<\/p>\n

Unlike other platforms, Binance valued such assets not via oracles<\/a> but against its own order book. The exchange knew about this\u2014an update was scheduled for October 14.<\/p>\n

The attackers seized the opportunity, dumping $90m of USDe onto the market. The \u201cstablecoin\u201d temporarily lost its peg to the US dollar, triggering $1bn of liquidations. bnSOL and wBETH were also hit.<\/p>\n

\"img-cc4271feca1222a0-7598264263072125\"
Hourly chart of USDe\/USDT on Binance. Source: TradingView<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Binance acknowledged that part of the liquidations was linked to the temporary loss of peg in USDe, bnSOL and wBETH. The company pledged compensation and on October 13 announced<\/a> payouts totalling $283m.<\/p>\n

Representatives of the platform denied any connection between the de\u2011peg and the broader sell\u2011off. Analysts also dispute claims of a co\u2011ordinated attack.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Wu cited<\/a> observations by analyst Jian Zhu\u2019er, who stressed USDe\u2019s loss of its dollar peg followed the initial price drop. He pointed to wBETH\u2019s thin liquidity as the primary cause.<\/p>\n

Whale collusion or market mechanics?<\/h2>\n

Blum co\u2011founder Gleb Kostarev noted<\/a> that many retail traders were shocked by the liquidations: they \u201chad profitable shorts, very few longs, and ended up with 0 on their balance\u201d.<\/p>\n

He said there was no scam or fraud here\u2014just standard derivatives\u2011venue mechanics.<\/p>\n

The exchange, he explained, does not shoulder counterparty risk; it merely intermediates longs and shorts. The platform controls margin and liquidates positions as needed. In a sudden sell\u2011off, the losing side may be unable to close\u2014order\u2011book liquidity is insufficient and positions go negative.<\/p>\n

For example, a trader owes $100,000 against $50,000 collateral\u2014this covers the debt only partially. The shortfall is absorbed by auto\u2011deleveraging: the exchange partially skims profits from those \u201cin the money\u201d to plug the hole.<\/p>\n

Kostarev said that when ADL triggers, the system sorts profitable traders by unrealized PnL<\/span> and leverage, then forcibly closes their positions. It is a last resort\u2014used when the insurance fund is depleted or during extreme market conditions.<\/p>\n

\n

\u201cThat\u2019s the harsh truth of life,\u201d he concluded, adding that traders should read an exchange\u2019s terms carefully before trading.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Coin Bureau co\u2011founder Nic Pukrin also noted that it was not only \u201clongers\u201d who suffered. He added that ADL \u201cwipes out\u201d profitable positions too.<\/p>\n

\n

The worst thing about the crash is that it wasn’t only longs who got screwed \u2014 shorts did too. <\/p>\n

Auto-Deleveraging (ADL) on the exchanges meant that traders in profit also got their positions taken out. <\/p>\n

ADL is a required risk management mechanism but its use is incredibly rare.\u2026<\/p>\n

\u2014 Nic (@nicrypto) October 12, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n