{"id":90203,"date":"2025-10-23T14:12:49","date_gmt":"2025-10-23T11:12:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=90203"},"modified":"2025-10-23T14:15:17","modified_gmt":"2025-10-23T11:15:17","slug":"analyst-warns-of-bitcoin-market-entering-late-cycle-phase","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/analyst-warns-of-bitcoin-market-entering-late-cycle-phase\/","title":{"rendered":"Analyst Warns of Bitcoin Market Entering Late Cycle Phase"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The leading cryptocurrency and the S&#038;P 500 index are in the &#8220;late stage of a bull phase,&#8221; according to analyst Axel Adler Jr.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">BTC and S&#038;P 500 remain in the late bull phase: S&#038;P 500 52-Week Return = +13%, the market is still in risk-on mode. BTC\u2013S&#038;P correlation = 0.26 \u2014 the relationship is moderately positive: bitcoin tends to move in the same direction as equities, but is not entirely dependent on them.\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/E5JP7aTJZw\">pic.twitter.com\/E5JP7aTJZw<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Axel \ud83d\udc8e\ud83d\ude4c Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/AxelAdlerJr\/status\/1981258422730301674?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 23, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>According to his data, the market remains in a risk-on mode, with the S&#038;P 500&#8217;s annual return at +13%.<\/p>\n<p>The correlation between Bitcoin and the S&#038;P 500 stands at 0.26, indicating a weak but positive relationship: the leading cryptocurrency often follows the stock market&#8217;s trends but is not entirely dependent on it.<\/p>\n<p>The analyst emphasized that the S&#038;P 500 is sensitive to macroeconomic and political news, so its cooling could quickly impact the price of the leading cryptocurrency.<\/p>\n<p>In the fourth quarter of 2025, the focus will shift to corporate earnings, the expert believes. After two years of growth, the market will assess actual results.<\/p>\n<p>The third-quarter earnings season is currently underway. Of the 58 firms that have reported, all exceeded forecasts. Expected profit growth has increased from 7% to 8%. Adler Jr. noted that this pattern is typical for the final stage of a bull phase.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bitcoin Inflows to Binance<\/h2>\n<p>Over the past 30 days, major holders of the leading cryptocurrency have transferred assets worth $5.56 billion to the Binance exchange. This was reported by CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Whale Flow to Binance Hits $5.56B Over the Last 30 Days<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe total inflow for the day reached $1.07B. During this period, Bitcoin\u2019s price surged from $108K to $113K before retracing back to $108K, likely influenced by these substantial transfers.\u201d \u2013 By <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/JA_Maartun?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@JA_Maartun<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/SbwkuDaJCF\">pic.twitter.com\/SbwkuDaJCF<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/cryptoquant_com\/status\/1981254979265450371?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 23, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>The expert tracked the <span data-descr=\"Whale Flow to Binance\" class=\"old_tooltip\">indicator<\/span> that accounts for transactions exceeding 1000 BTC. The indicator points to an inflow of assets from whales, which could influence the price of digital gold.<\/p>\n<p>A sharp increase in the indicator occurred on October 21, when Bitcoin worth $1.07 billion was transferred to the exchange. The analyst highlighted several large transactions:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>04:00 \u2014 $43.74 million;<\/li>\n<li>08:00 \u2014 $21.63 million and $162.24 million;<\/li>\n<li>10:00 \u2014 $143.77 million and $323.43 million;<\/li>\n<li>17:00 \u2014 $39.45 million;<\/li>\n<li>18:00 \u2014 $336.95 million.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Amid these transfers, Bitcoin&#8217;s price rose <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/bitcoin-rebounds-to-113000\">from $108,000 to $113,000<\/a>, before correcting back to $108,000.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Short-term Investors&#8217; &#8220;Pain&#8221;<\/h2>\n<p>Analysts at Glassnode reported a decline in speculative activity in the market. According to their data, recent cryptocurrency buyers are experiencing &#8220;financial stress,&#8221; a sign of market cooling.<\/p>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/telegram.org\/js\/telegram-widget.js?22\" data-telegram-post=\"glassnode\/1352\" data-width=\"100%\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Experts refer to the metric of unrealized profits and losses of short-term holders. Its current values reflect increasing pressure on this group of investors.<\/p>\n<p>Glassnode emphasized that historically, periods of &#8220;pain&#8221; for speculators coincided with the formation of healthier market conditions. Reducing excessive speculation could lead to price stabilization, specialists concluded.<\/p>\n<p>Contributors from CryptoQuant at ShayanMarkets <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/mvrv-indicator-suggests-bitcoins-local-bottom\">reported<\/a> that the <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-is-the-mvrv-indicator\">MVRV<\/a> ratio on the leading cryptocurrency&#8217;s chart has fallen below the 365-day simple moving average, marking a local low.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The leading cryptocurrency and the S&#038;P 500 index are in the &#8220;late stage of a bull phase,&#8221; according to analyst Axel Adler Jr.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":90204,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"Bitcoin and S&P 500 are in a late bull phase, says analyst Axel Adler Jr.","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[18,1146,1268,1211],"class_list":["post-90203","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-bitcoin","tag-cryptocurrency-market-forecasts","tag-on-chain-analysis","tag-stock-market"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"165","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"Bitcoin and S&P 500 are in a late bull phase, says analyst Axel Adler Jr.","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/90203","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=90203"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/90203\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":90205,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/90203\/revisions\/90205"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/90204"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=90203"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=90203"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=90203"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}