{"id":90318,"date":"2025-10-27T14:58:03","date_gmt":"2025-10-27T12:58:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=90318"},"modified":"2025-10-27T14:00:30","modified_gmt":"2025-10-27T12:00:30","slug":"bitwise-analyst-highlights-key-flaw-in-bitcoins-s2f-model","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/bitwise-analyst-highlights-key-flaw-in-bitcoins-s2f-model\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitwise Analyst Highlights Key Flaw in Bitcoin&#8217;s S2F Model"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-is-the-stock-to-flow-model-and-why-is-it-criticised\">S2F<\/a> model overlooks crucial demand factors, thus caution is advised when using it to predict the price of the leading cryptocurrency, stated Bitwise&#8217;s senior analyst, Andre Dragosch.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">\ud83d\udd34 #3 \ud835\uddd5\ud835\uddf6\ud835\ude01\ud835\uddf0\ud835\uddfc\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddfb \ud835\udde0\ud835\uddfc\ud835\uddf1\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddf9 \ud835\uddd9\ud835\uddfc\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddf0\ud835\uddee\ud835\ude00\ud835\ude01 \ud835\udde6\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddf2\ud835\ude00 \u2013 \ud835\udde6\ud835\ude01\ud835\uddfc\ud835\uddf0\ud835\uddf8-\ud835\ude01\ud835\uddfc-\ud835\uddd9\ud835\uddf9\ud835\uddfc\ud835\ude04 \ud835\udde0\ud835\uddfc\ud835\uddf1\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddf9<\/p>\n<p>This is my third post in the series on <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Bitcoin?src=hash&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Bitcoin<\/a> price prediction models.<\/p>\n<p>As promised, I\u2019ll continue to show different <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Bitcoin?src=hash&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Bitcoin<\/a> model forecasts over the coming weeks \u2014 each with\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/bo0xRUz15k\">https:\/\/t.co\/bo0xRUz15k<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/80hP9Fn4Bc\">pic.twitter.com\/80hP9Fn4Bc<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Andr\u00e9 Dragosch, PhD\u26a1 (@Andre_Dragosch) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Andre_Dragosch\/status\/1982481137399419017?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 26, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>According to him, S2F relies solely on Bitcoin <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-is-the-bitcoin-halving\">halvings<\/a>, ignoring the dynamics of interest in digital gold.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cToday, institutional demand through ETPs for Bitcoin and treasury holdings exceeds the annual supply reduction from the last halving by more than seven times,\u201d he noted.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Dragosch emphasized that <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-is-a-cryptocurrency-etf\">exchange-traded funds<\/a> and other investment instruments have established a price floor for the leading cryptocurrency, maintaining its rate above $100,000. This has fundamentally altered the market structure compared to previous cycles, which were dependent on retail investors, the analyst added.<\/p>\n<p>According to S2F, Bitcoin&#8217;s price could reach $222,000 in the current cycle. At the time of writing, digital gold is trading around $115,000.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"601\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-0d3cc427118238fa-7958828376399608-1024x601.png\" alt=\"image\" class=\"wp-image-268287\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-0d3cc427118238fa-7958828376399608-1024x601.png 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-0d3cc427118238fa-7958828376399608-300x176.png 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-0d3cc427118238fa-7958828376399608-768x451.png 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-0d3cc427118238fa-7958828376399608-1536x902.png 1536w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-0d3cc427118238fa-7958828376399608.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Hourly BTC\/USDT chart on Binance. Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/ru.tradingview.com\/chart\/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT\">TradingView<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The all-time high for the leading cryptocurrency was recorded on October 6 at $126,080, according to <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/bitcoins-surge-to-126000-revitalises-retail-investors\">CoinGecko<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Previously, the creator of S2F, known by the pseudonym PlanB, <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/planb-bitcoins-bull-market-still-has-room-to-run\">stated<\/a> that Bitcoin&#8217;s bull phase is not yet over. He claimed that fundamental indicators point to continued growth.<\/p>\n<p>In September 2024, the expert <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/planb-envisions-bitcoin-reaching-70000-in-october-and-1-million-by-2025\">predicted<\/a> a rally of digital gold to $1 million by the end of 2025.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The S2F model overlooks crucial demand factors. Caution is advised when using it to predict Bitcoin&#8217;s price, stated Andre Dragosch from Bitwise.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":90319,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"The S2F model overlooks crucial demand factors, warns Bitwise's Andre Dragosch.","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[18,949,1138],"class_list":["post-90318","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitwise","tag-opinions"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"116","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"The S2F model overlooks crucial demand factors, warns Bitwise's Andre Dragosch.","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/90318","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=90318"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/90318\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":90320,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/90318\/revisions\/90320"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/90319"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=90318"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=90318"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=90318"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}