{"id":90509,"date":"2025-10-31T13:46:36","date_gmt":"2025-10-31T11:46:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=90509"},"modified":"2025-10-31T12:52:23","modified_gmt":"2025-10-31T10:52:23","slug":"peter-brandt-shorts-bitcoin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/peter-brandt-shorts-bitcoin\/","title":{"rendered":"Peter Brandt shorts bitcoin"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>A \u201cmegaphone\u201d pattern has formed on the bitcoin chart\u2014typically a harbinger of price declines, wrote technical analyst Peter Brandt.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Do others besides me find it a bit awkward intellectually\/emotionally when you hold contrary positions in accounts designed to trade different systems\/time frames?<br \/>As an investor I have owned Bitcoin for years<br \/>As a swing trader I am now short <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24BTC&#038;src=ctag&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$BTC<\/a> futures based on megaphone <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/bZZDwbypSh\">pic.twitter.com\/bZZDwbypSh<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/PeterLBrandt\/status\/1984001227550814377?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 30, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>On that basis, the expert opened a short position in bitcoin futures. He stressed that he believes in \u201cdigital gold\u201d over the long term and continues to hold it in his portfolio.<\/p>\n<p>At the time of writing, the leading cryptocurrency trades around $110,000, down 0.3% over the past 24 hours.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"599\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-00c80e0b97ea2d66-8300077644252619-1024x599.png\" alt=\"image\" class=\"wp-image-268681\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-00c80e0b97ea2d66-8300077644252619-1024x599.png 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-00c80e0b97ea2d66-8300077644252619-300x175.png 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-00c80e0b97ea2d66-8300077644252619-768x449.png 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-00c80e0b97ea2d66-8300077644252619-1536x898.png 1536w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-00c80e0b97ea2d66-8300077644252619.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Hourly BTC\/USDT chart on Binance. Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/ru.tradingview.com\/chart\/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT\">TradingView<\/a>.\u00a0<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>On October 30 bitcoin fell to $106,000. According to Santiment, this dented confidence in a near-term recovery. Many now expect a move below $100,000.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">\ud83d\ude28 Bitcoin&#8217;s dip to $107K Thursday has led to a high amount of sub-$100K <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24BTC&#038;src=ctag&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$BTC<\/a> price predictions. In this chart:<\/p>\n<p>\ud83d\udfe6 $50K-$100K Calls<br \/>\ud83d\udfe5 $150K-$200K Calls<\/p>\n<p>Markets move opposite to the crowd&#8217;s expectations, therefore a relief rally is probable while FUD is peaking like it is now. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/slCuZALuE8\">pic.twitter.com\/slCuZALuE8<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Santiment (@santimentfeed) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/santimentfeed\/status\/1983924159261397497?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 30, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-is-cryptos-fear-and-greed-index\">Fear and Greed Index<\/a> stands at 29, signalling prevailing pessimism. The gauge fell five points in a day.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"460\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-8d429841878628fb-8300102146636518-1024x460.png\" alt=\"image\" class=\"wp-image-268682\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-8d429841878628fb-8300102146636518-1024x460.png 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-8d429841878628fb-8300102146636518-300x135.png 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-8d429841878628fb-8300102146636518-768x345.png 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-8d429841878628fb-8300102146636518-1536x690.png 1536w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-8d429841878628fb-8300102146636518.png 1584w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/alternative.me\/crypto\/fear-and-greed-index\/\">Alternative.me<\/a>.\u00a0<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Earlier, Glassnode analysts <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/analysts-explain-bitcoins-sideways-movement\">pointed to<\/a> the risk of a drop to $88,000. To avoid such an outcome, bitcoin needs to hold above $113,000, they said.<\/p>\n<p>Santiment, however, says the market \u201coften moves contrary to the crowd&#8217;s expectations\u201d.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cThe current peak in pessimism creates conditions for a relief rally\u2014a classic case where maximum fear precedes a trend reversal,\u201d the experts added.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Why isn\u2019t the market recovering?<\/h2>\n<p>On October 29 the <span data-descr=\"US Federal Reserve System\" class=\"old_tooltip\">Fed<\/span> for the second meeting in a row <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/bitcoin-shows-tepid-reaction-to-feds-rate-cut\">cut<\/a> its key rate by 25 bps to 3.75%\u20134%. Ahead of the <span data-descr=\"Federal Open Market Committee\" class=\"old_tooltip\">FOMC<\/span> meeting, analysts <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/analyst-predicts-bitcoin-rally-post-fed-meeting\">mooted<\/a> the start of a new bitcoin rally.<\/p>\n<p>The next day, US President Donald Trump, whose decisions significantly influence the crypto market, <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/bitcoin-tops-111000-after-trump-hails-remarkable-meeting-with-xi\">announced<\/a> lower tariffs on imports from China.<\/p>\n<p>At the same time, the United States <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/bitwise-launches-sol-etf-on-nyse\">launched<\/a> trading in spot exchange-traded funds based on a range of altcoins.<\/p>\n<p>Yet neither bitcoin nor the broader crypto market reacted to the positive news. According to XWIN Research Japan, a key reason is weaker institutional demand.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Why the Market Fell Despite All the Good News<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe sell-off was not irrational. After weeks of exuberance, speculative momentum cooled. Institutional demand weakened, monetary clarity blurred, and geopolitics grew complicated.\u201d \u2013 By <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/xwinfinance?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@xwinfinance<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/uDncPGyw48\">pic.twitter.com\/uDncPGyw48<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/cryptoquant_com\/status\/1984188594773451092?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 31, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>The experts pointed to the Coinbase Premium Gap, which reflects price differences between Coinbase and other exchanges. The metric turned negative.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cThis traditionally signals reduced buying activity from US institutional investors. Historically, a negative premium often precedes short-term market corrections,\u201d XWIN Research Japan explained.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Other factors include:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>no assurances of further rate cuts\u2014Fed chair Jerome Powell is unsure the central bank will continue easing;<\/li>\n<li>ongoing geopolitical uncertainty\u2014participants in US-China talks describe the arrangements as a \u201ctemporary truce\u201d.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Trader Miles Deutscher <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/milesdeutscher\/status\/1984169979953213914\">added<\/a> that corporate treasuries have begun selling assets to stabilise <span data-descr=\"net asset value\" class=\"old_tooltip\">NAV<\/span>, adding pressure. Demand for spot bitcoin ETFs has also weakened.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"578\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-16adb20e0e81db2a-8300187375287279-1024x578.png\" alt=\"image\" class=\"wp-image-268683\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-16adb20e0e81db2a-8300187375287279-1024x578.png 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-16adb20e0e81db2a-8300187375287279-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-16adb20e0e81db2a-8300187375287279-768x434.png 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-16adb20e0e81db2a-8300187375287279-1536x867.png 1536w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-16adb20e0e81db2a-8300187375287279.png 1828w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Flows into and out of spot bitcoin ETFs. Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/sosovalue.com\/assets\/etf\/us-btc-spot\">SoSoValue<\/a>.\u00a0<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>He cited <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/whales-adl-and-the-end-of-the-bull-what-really-happened-on-cryptos-black-saturday-2\">\u201cBlack Saturday\u201d on October 11<\/a> as a key factor that undermined trust in the industry and deterred retail investors.<\/p>\n<p>Even so, XWIN Research Japan called the current correction \u201cnormal\u201d. The medium-term outlook, they said, is optimistic.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What next?<\/h2>\n<p>MN Trading founder Micha\u00ebl van de Poppe thinks bitcoin must clear $112,000 for a new rally and a potential new <span data-descr=\"all-time high\" class=\"old_tooltip\">ATH<\/span>.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Bitcoin?src=hash&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Bitcoin<\/a> needs to break $112K and that&#8217;s the crucial level before a new ATH.<\/p>\n<p>Mentioned it before, and it&#8217;s still valid. <\/p>\n<p>I do think we&#8217;ll see a new ATH in November. <\/p>\n<p>However, it did hit support. If this level is lost for Bitcoin, then we&#8217;re looking at a sweep of $103K or even\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/XJQRo5CAvV\">pic.twitter.com\/XJQRo5CAvV<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Micha\u00ebl van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/CryptoMichNL\/status\/1983934421565673521?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 30, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cAt the same time, the asset did reach support. If bitcoin loses this level, the next target will be $103,000 or even lower,\u201d he warned.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Even so, van de Poppe expects \u201cdigital gold\u201d to set a new all-time high in November.<\/p>\n<p>Bitcoin is ending October in the red for the first time since 2018. As analyst Crypto Rover noted, the last time that happened the coin fell 36% in November.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Last time October closed red for Bitcoin, November saw a 36.57% drop.<\/p>\n<p>Should we be worried this time? <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/WCm6FZuOZa\">pic.twitter.com\/WCm6FZuOZa<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Crypto Rover (@cryptorover) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/cryptorover\/status\/1984154118345388125?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 31, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Investor Timothy Peterson disagreed. In his words, \u201ca weak October means nothing\u201d, though rallies \u201cdo often slow\u201d.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-4e8568370d5ead54-8300239356530934.webp\" alt=\"image\" class=\"wp-image-268684\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/nsquaredvalue\/status\/1984036077951156568\">X\/Timothy Peterson<\/a>.\u00a0<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cBitcoin\u2019s average three-month return after a weak October is 11%, and after a strong one it is 21%,\u201d he noted.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Earlier, the analyst known as Crypto Dan <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/analyst-predicts-end-of-correction-and-altcoin-rally\">forecast<\/a> the end of the correction and the start of an altcoin rally.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A \u201cmegaphone\u201d pattern has formed on bitcoin\u2019s chart\u2014typically a bearish signal, wrote technician Peter Brandt.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":90510,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"Peter Brandt shorts bitcoin futures on a 'megaphone' pattern, but says he holds BTC long term.","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[18,1146,1138,1420],"class_list":["post-90509","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-bitcoin","tag-cryptocurrency-market-forecasts","tag-opinions","tag-peter-brandt"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"171","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"Peter Brandt shorts bitcoin futures on a 'megaphone' pattern, but says he holds BTC long term.","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/90509","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=90509"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/90509\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":90511,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/90509\/revisions\/90511"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/90510"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=90509"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=90509"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=90509"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}