{"id":90765,"date":"2025-11-07T13:08:36","date_gmt":"2025-11-07T10:08:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=90765"},"modified":"2025-11-07T13:12:50","modified_gmt":"2025-11-07T10:12:50","slug":"jpmorgan-analysts-see-bitcoin-at-170000","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/jpmorgan-analysts-see-bitcoin-at-170000\/","title":{"rendered":"JPMorgan analysts see bitcoin at $170,000"},"content":{"rendered":"

As leverage and relative volatility normalise versus gold, the leading cryptocurrency could climb to $170,000 within the next 6\u201312 months, JPMorgan analysts said, according to The Block<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n

By their count, the crypto market has corrected by nearly 20% from recent highs. The steepest drop came overnight 10\u201311 October<\/a> amid record liquidations in perpetual contracts. Smaller position closures followed on 3 November.\u00a0<\/p>\n

They noted that the November liquidations coincided with a fresh blow to investor confidence \u2014 the hack of the Balancer DeFi protocol<\/a> for $128m. The incident again highlighted the security risks of decentralised projects.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Despite the bouts of selling, the deleveraging phase is \u201clargely done\u201d, the analysts stressed. Open interest in bitcoin perpetual futures relative to the asset\u2019s market capitalisation has fallen from above-average levels back to its historical norm.\u00a0<\/p>\n

A similar picture is visible in Ethereum, though the reduction in leverage there was less pronounced.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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\u201cOn CME we see the opposite: there were more liquidations in Ethereum futures than in bitcoin,\u201d \u2014 added at JPMorgan.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

They also said that the outflows from crypto ETF<\/a>s seen in recent weeks were modest compared with the inflows in the weeks ended 3 and 10 October.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"image\"
Flows into and out of spot bitcoin ETFs since early October. Source: SoSoValue<\/a>.\u00a0<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
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\u201cWe think perpetuals are the most important gauge to watch right now. The stabilisation of this metric suggests deleveraging is likely behind us,\u201d \u2014 the experts concluded.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Bitcoin at $170,000<\/h2>\n

JPMorgan argues that higher gold volatility has made the market\u2019s flagship more attractive on a risk\u2011reward basis.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin\u2019s volatility relative to gold has fallen below 2. That means the coin requires roughly 1.8 times more risk capital than gold.\u00a0<\/p>\n

On that basis, the analysts calculate that to match the scale of private investment in the metal, bitcoin\u2019s market value (about $2.1trn) would need to rise by 67%.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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\u201cThis implies a theoretical price of roughly $170,000,\u201d \u2014 they noted.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

The current price is about $69,000 below its gold\u2011adjusted value. In their view, this \u201cmechanical calculation suggests considerable upside over the next 6\u201312 months\u201d.\u00a0<\/p>\n

At the time of writing bitcoin trades around ~$101,000. Over the past day its price is down 2%.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"image\"
Hourly chart of BTC\/USDT on Binance. Source: TradingView<\/a>.\u00a0<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The market is far from the peak\u00a0<\/h2>\n

Galaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz said the crypto market\u2019s \u201csluggish dynamics\u201d reflect hodlers rebalancing portfolios. He believes diversifying positions is beneficial in the medium and long term.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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$GLXY<\/a> continues to work day after day building long term shareholder value. Of course, I wish our stock went up every day but we can\u2019t control who buy and sells. What we can do is invest for the future, chase down loose balls, and recruit great talent. <\/p>\n

We are excited about\u2026<\/p>\n

\u2014 Mike Novogratz (@novogratz) November 5, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n