{"id":90839,"date":"2025-11-10T15:56:24","date_gmt":"2025-11-10T12:56:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=90839"},"modified":"2025-11-10T16:02:23","modified_gmt":"2025-11-10T13:02:23","slug":"options-market-split-on-bitcoins-outlook","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/options-market-split-on-bitcoins-outlook\/","title":{"rendered":"Options market split on bitcoin\u2019s outlook"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Market participants are unsure whether the leading cryptocurrency will test new price highs before year-end, QCP analysts <a href=\"https:\/\/www.qcpgroup.com\/insights\/asia-colour-171\/\">noted<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>They observe that big players are simultaneously adding call positions targeting $112,000\u2013$150,000 while taking profit by selling spreads around $135,000\u2013$140,000.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The divergence points to uncertainty over bitcoin\u2019s ability to clear key resistance levels in the coming months. The backdrop is worsened by continued selling from long-term holders and outflows from exchange-traded funds.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Even so, QCP highlights the market\u2019s resilience. Hints of <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/prospects-of-ending-the-u-s-shutdown-perk-up-crypto-markets\">an end to the US shutdown<\/a> were the key catalyst for the latest rebound, they say.\u00a0<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u2018Ancient\u2019 bitcoin wallets\u00a0<\/h2>\n<p>In November, long-term investors in the leading cryptocurrency showed their highest level of activity since July, said CryptoQuant contributor Arab Chain.\u00a0<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Older Bitcoin Wallets Move Coins to Binance at Highest Level Since July<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIf balance between older deposits and consistent demand from newer maturities persists, we may witness an upward price accumulation in the coming weeks\u201d \u2013 By <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ArabxChain?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@ArabxChain<\/a> <\/p>\n<p>Link \u2935\ufe0f<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/OXiyM3aLpH\">https:\/\/t.co\/OXiyM3aLpH<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/qen7Zen1U5\">pic.twitter.com\/qen7Zen1U5<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/cryptoquant_com\/status\/1987821030530818090?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 10, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Coins aged 7\u201310 years stood out. Such \u2018ancient\u2019 holdings are typically moved only amid fundamental shifts in the market, the analyst noted.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>According to Arab Chain, activity by long-term whales usually acts as a short-term warning, signalling a readiness to take profit after a long period of dormancy.\u00a0<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cThis traditionally marks a turning point\u2014either the start of a broad correction or institutional reallocation ahead of a new phase of growth,\u201d the analyst stressed.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>The current set-up, however, looks more balanced. Older coins are hitting exchanges while new investors hold their positions, tempering selling pressure.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>A key factor is bitcoin stabilising around $106,000. That suggests a period of \u2018quiet\u2019 redistribution rather than a broad sell-off.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>In the expert\u2019s view, a continued balance between supply from \u2018ancient\u2019 wallets and demand from newer entrants \u201ccould lay the groundwork for accumulation and a subsequent rally\u201d.\u00a0<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Outflows from spot bitcoin ETFs\u00a0<\/h2>\n<p>After the latest session, <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-is-a-cryptocurrency-etf\">exchange-traded funds<\/a> backed by the leading cryptocurrency lost $558 million. The biggest outflows were from Fidelity\u2019s FBTC (-$256 million), Ark &#038; 21Shares\u2019 ARKB (-$144 million) and BlackRock\u2019s IBIT (-$131 million).<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"577\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-a2fdf155140c2bb2-9171981732272539-1024x577.png\" alt=\"image\" class=\"wp-image-269335\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-a2fdf155140c2bb2-9171981732272539-1024x577.png 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-a2fdf155140c2bb2-9171981732272539-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-a2fdf155140c2bb2-9171981732272539-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-a2fdf155140c2bb2-9171981732272539-1536x865.png 1536w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-a2fdf155140c2bb2-9171981732272539.png 1840w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Dynamics of outflows and inflows in spot bitcoin ETFs. Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/sosovalue.com\/ru\/assets\/etf\/us-btc-spot\">SoSoValue<\/a>.\u00a0<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>In total, from 31 October to 8 November, $1.17 billion was <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/crypto-fund-outflows-surpass-1-billion-for-second-consecutive-week\">withdrawn<\/a> from digital-asset investment products.<\/p>\n<p>Cumulative inflows since the launch of bitcoin ETFs have fallen to $59.9 billion. At the end of October, the figure exceeded $62 billion.\u00a0<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What next?<\/h2>\n<p>At the time of writing, digital gold trades around $106,100. The price is up 3.9% over the past 24 hours.\u00a0<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"599\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-d9020e72e8efc888-9171994783363462-1024x599.png\" alt=\"image\" class=\"wp-image-269336\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-d9020e72e8efc888-9171994783363462-1024x599.png 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-d9020e72e8efc888-9171994783363462-300x175.png 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-d9020e72e8efc888-9171994783363462-768x449.png 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-d9020e72e8efc888-9171994783363462-1536x898.png 1536w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-d9020e72e8efc888-9171994783363462.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Hourly chart of BTC\/USDT on Binance. Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/ru.tradingview.com\/chart\/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT\">TradingView<\/a>.\u00a0<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Glassnode noted the next key level is $108,500, a zone that \u201chas historically served as resistance during recovery moves.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Bitcoin rebounded from the 75th percentile cost basis (~$100K) and is now consolidating near $106.2K.<br \/>The next key level is the 85th percentile cost basis (~$108.5K); a zone that has historically served as resistance during recovery moves.<\/p>\n<p>\ud83d\udcc9<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/2geS82By8p\">https:\/\/t.co\/2geS82By8p<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/SxAJ9C4AsR\">https:\/\/t.co\/SxAJ9C4AsR<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/8kBQOatwba\">pic.twitter.com\/8kBQOatwba<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 glassnode (@glassnode) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/glassnode\/status\/1987830050813788533?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 10, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Clearing that threshold would be an important signal for further upside.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>According to the analyst known as Darkfost, the resilience of the current trend would be confirmed if bitcoin closes the day above $107,500.\u00a0<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">\ud83d\udcc9 It has now been one month since the price has been trading below the STHs\u2019 realized price, putting them under significant pressure.<\/p>\n<p>I\u2019m not convinced that the current rebound is strong enough to bring them back above water. As we discussed in TA, this looks like a technical\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/75bU9QZXgr\">https:\/\/t.co\/75bU9QZXgr<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/yJyKOVmWdN\">pic.twitter.com\/yJyKOVmWdN<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Darkfost_Coc\/status\/1987833760700621092?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 10, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>He noted that for a month bitcoin has traded below the short-term holders\u2019 (STH) realised price, \u201cputting them under significant pressure.\u201d The latest bounce looks more like a technical correction to reset the <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-the-rsi-is-for-and-whether-it-suits-cryptocurrencies\">RSI<\/a> than a true trend reversal, he stressed.\u00a0<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cThis week\u2019s news may act as a catalyst, but, as history shows, last time the price spent about two months below the STH realised price before a full recovery. For now, caution is warranted,\u201d he concluded.\u00a0\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>QCP\u2019s analysts reckon the most likely near-term scenario for digital gold is sideways trade. Attempts to push above $118,000 will be capped by selling from \u2018ancient\u2019 addresses, in their view.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>A durable recovery will require stabilising inflows into exchange-traded funds and reduced activity by long-term holders, the experts concluded.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Earlier, JPMorgan specialists <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/jpmorgan-analysts-see-bitcoin-at-170000\">predicted<\/a> bitcoin would rise to $170,000 by year-end. At the same time, Galaxy Digital <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/galaxy-digital-cuts-its-2025-year-end-bitcoin-target-to-120000\">lowered<\/a> its annual forecast for the leading cryptocurrency to $120,000.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>One of the firm\u2019s experts, Alex Thorn, <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/galaxy-analyst-observes-waning-interest-in-bitcoin\">said<\/a> investor interest in digital gold has diminished.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Market participants are unsure whether bitcoin will test new highs before year-end, QCP analysts said.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":90840,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"QCP says markets doubt bitcoin will set new highs this year.","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[18,1146,1205,1273,1138],"class_list":["post-90839","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-bitcoin","tag-cryptocurrency-market-forecasts","tag-cryptoquant","tag-glassnode","tag-opinions"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"164","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"QCP says markets doubt bitcoin will set new highs this year.","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/90839","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=90839"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/90839\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":90841,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/90839\/revisions\/90841"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/90840"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=90839"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=90839"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=90839"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}