{"id":90868,"date":"2025-11-11T13:15:00","date_gmt":"2025-11-11T10:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=90868"},"modified":"2025-11-11T13:16:42","modified_gmt":"2025-11-11T10:16:42","slug":"willy-woo-suggests-segwit-as-a-shield-against-bitcoins-quantum-risk","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/willy-woo-suggests-segwit-as-a-shield-against-bitcoins-quantum-risk\/","title":{"rendered":"Willy Woo suggests SegWit as a shield against bitcoin\u2019s quantum risk"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Analyst Willy Woo has proposed a way to shield the first cryptocurrency from the quantum threat. He argues that funds should be moved to <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-is-segregated-witness\">SegWit<\/a> addresses and kept there for about seven years.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">DUMMIES GUIDE TO BEING QUANTUM SAFE.<\/p>\n<p>In the past it was about protecting your PRIVATE KEY (your seed phrase). In the age of big scary quantum computers (BSQC) that are coming, you need to protect your PUBLIC KEY also.<\/p>\n<p>Basically a BSQC can figure out your private key from a\u2026<\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Willy Woo (@woonomic) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/woonomic\/status\/1988050039424610387?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 11, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>In his view, quantum computers will be able to derive a private key from a public key. Woo claims the current <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-is-taproot\">Taproot<\/a> format is vulnerable because it embeds the public key directly. SegWit, by contrast, keeps it hidden until the first outgoing transaction.<\/p>\n<p>For the protection to hold, users should not spend from such a wallet until a complete fix is in place.<\/p>\n<p>He acknowledged that, by consensus, the threat is unlikely to materialise before 2030. By then, developers may adopt post-quantum cryptographic standards.<\/p>\n<p>Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole, disagreed. He called SegWit \u201cnot a protection model\u201d and said that waiting seven years could lead to a collapse of the network.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Willy you know this isn&#8217;t a solution. Segwit is no protection model. We need to upgrade the network ASAP, and these kind of posts suggesting we have 7 years would mean the network collapses first. Bitcoin can adapt, but we need to see a lot more traction on that now and really\u2026<\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Charles Edwards (@caprioleio) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/caprioleio\/status\/1988057577377460606?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 11, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>He said the community must start working now on a protocol upgrade to protect against quantum computers. Edwards called the first cryptocurrency \u201cthe most vulnerable network in the world\u201d.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Two years left<\/h2>\n<p>Quantum computers could crack the encryption of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies within two years, according to the Quantum Doomsday Clock project.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"450\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-1fd1b2df00e23b23-9247780244429064-1024x450.png\" alt=\"\u0421\u043d\u0438\u043c\u043e\u043a \u044d\u043a\u0440\u0430\u043d\u0430 2025-11-11 113728\" class=\"wp-image-269404\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-1fd1b2df00e23b23-9247780244429064-1024x450.png 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-1fd1b2df00e23b23-9247780244429064-300x132.png 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-1fd1b2df00e23b23-9247780244429064-768x338.png 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-1fd1b2df00e23b23-9247780244429064.png 1372w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/quantumdoomclock.com\/\">Quantum Doomsday Clock project website<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The researchers estimate it would take 1,673 qubits to compromise ECC-256, 2,314 for RSA-2048 and 3,971 for RSA-4096.<\/p>\n<p>The calculations assume a surface-code error-correction scheme with error rates between 10^-3 and 10^-5. Improvements here could accelerate timelines.<\/p>\n<p>The authors noted that recent work has focused on controlling and reducing errors rather than increasing qubit counts. If the focus shifts to scaling, quantum advantage could arrive earlier than widely forecast. Once sufficient power is reached, an attack would take from hours to days.<\/p>\n<p>The analysis showed that P2PKH bitcoin wallets get a brief reprieve. They use new public keys for each transaction. However, over the long run, systems based on current cryptographic standards will have to migrate to post-quantum protocols to remain secure.<\/p>\n<p>Edwards said the project is useful, while disagreeing with the calculation methodology.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">While I don&#8217;t necessarily agree with how this is calculated. I think a target is good as it gives a visual we must work towards. If we haven&#8217;t solved quantum by this point for Bitcoin\u2026 we&#8217;re going down that creek without a paddle. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/o7rAX8xWdG\">https:\/\/t.co\/o7rAX8xWdG<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Charles Edwards (@caprioleio) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/caprioleio\/status\/1986231717875884402?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 6, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p><em>\u201cThe idea of the Quantum Doomsday Clock is good, as it gives us a visual target to work towards. If we haven\u2019t solved quantum for bitcoin by that point\u2026 we\u2019ll be in very bad shape,\u201d he said.<\/em><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Panic is worse than the quantum threat<\/h2>\n<p>Panic in crypto spreads faster than common sense. Code runs the market, but prices are driven by emotion. An unfounded claim that bitcoin has been cracked by a quantum computer could set off a chain reaction and crash the market, Yun Au, founder of BOLTS Technologies, told <a href=\"https:\/\/decrypt.co\/346256\/quantum-threat-bitcoin-how-panic-could-break-crypto-before-physics-does\">Decrypt<\/a>. He cited a recent sudden plunge.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cThere was a small flash crash in the crypto market. A $50\u2013100m sell-off\u2014nothing for traditional markets\u2014triggered huge losses in blockchain assets. This shows how fragile the system still is,\u201d Au explained.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>He said the same scenario is possible with panic around quantum computing. If someone claims elliptic-curve cryptography has been broken, \u201ceveryone will rush for the exits and the system will collapse\u201d.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The threat is real but distant<\/h2>\n<p>Edward Parker, a physicist at RAND Corporation, says the quantum threat to cryptography is serious and should be prepared for in advance.<\/p>\n<p>Researcher Ian McCormack argues that fear is outpacing the technology.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cQuantum computers are nowhere near powerful enough to crack RSA-2048 or any other meaningful cryptography. Reducing error rates and combining thousands of qubits to solve practical problems will take time, money and many attempts,\u201d he noted.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>McCormack added that the \u201cmystique\u201d around quantum computing amplifies fear. In his view, cryptography resilient to such machines will almost certainly arrive faster than a computer capable of breaking today\u2019s standards.<\/p>\n<p>Coin Metrics co-founder Nic Carter <a href=\"https:\/\/murmurationstwo.substack.com\/p\/bitcoin-and-the-quantum-problem-part\">called<\/a> quantum computing \u201cthe biggest risk to bitcoin\u201d. He estimates that around 4m BTC already sit at addresses with exposed public keys. In theory, they are vulnerable to a quantum attack.<\/p>\n<p>Experts concur that action is needed now. Rebecca Krauthamer, co-founder of QuSecure, said elliptic-curve cryptography should be abandoned in favour of post-quantum standards such as <span data-descr=\"Module Lattice-Based Digital Signature Algorithm \u2014 a standard developed by the U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology\" class=\"old_tooltip\">ML-DSA<\/span>.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The governance problem<\/h2>\n<p>Upgrading bitcoin is a fraught political process. The network\u2019s security model requires consensus among miners, developers and node operators. Any cryptographic change would require a fork, and debate could take years.<\/p>\n<p>Computer science professor Scott Aaronson noted that the first cryptocurrency\u2019s decentralisation complicates upgrades.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cIn Ethereum and most other networks, someone can make the decision to move to quantum-resistant cryptography. In bitcoin, a fork would require agreement by a majority of miners,\u201d he said.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>The lack of a central authority may slow deployment. Rushing or splitting risks harming the network. Still, many bitcoin developers are confident that, given a working solution, consensus will be reached.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">When will \u2018Q Day\u2019 arrive?<\/h2>\n<p>No quantum computer capable of breaking the digital gold\u2019s encryption exists yet. Current prototypes count in the thousands of qubits, but a stable attack would require millions with error correction.<\/p>\n<p>Christopher Peikert, a professor at the University of Michigan, believes there is no real threat in the next few years. In the short term, the best protection is behavioural.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cPublic keys should not be revealed on-chain until it is absolutely necessary, and they should be given a short lifetime,\u201d Peikert advised.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Most experts favour a gradual transition. That would avoid chaos that could damage trust in the system more than any real quantum attack.<\/p>\n<p>In July, a group of developers <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/developers-propose-quantum-resistant-solution-for-bitcoin\">found<\/a> a way to protect the first cryptocurrency\u2019s network from potential threats posed by quantum computers.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Analyst Willy Woo has proposed shielding bitcoin from the quantum threat by moving funds to SegWit addresses.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":90869,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"Willy Woo urges parking coins on SegWit to buy time against a quantum attack.","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[1138,575,1360,1514],"class_list":["post-90868","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-opinions","tag-quantum-computers","tag-quantum-computing","tag-willy-woo"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"246","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"Willy Woo urges parking coins on SegWit to buy time against a quantum attack.","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/90868","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=90868"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/90868\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":90870,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/90868\/revisions\/90870"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/90869"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=90868"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=90868"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=90868"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}