{"id":90919,"date":"2025-11-12T13:12:25","date_gmt":"2025-11-12T10:12:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=90919"},"modified":"2025-11-12T13:16:02","modified_gmt":"2025-11-12T10:16:02","slug":"santiment-says-bitcoin-is-undervalued-versus-gold-and-equities","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/santiment-says-bitcoin-is-undervalued-versus-gold-and-equities\/","title":{"rendered":"Santiment says bitcoin is undervalued versus gold and equities"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin is undervalued, analysts at Santiment said after examining a break in the four-year correlation between the coin\u2019s price and the stock market.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">\ud83d\udcca Over the past 3 months, there has been a clear correlation break between crypto and equities. Here are the major sector returns since August 11th:<\/p>\n<p>\ud83e\udd47 Gold: +21%<br \/>\ud83c\udfe6 S&#038;P 500: +7%<br \/>\ud83e\ude99 Bitcoin: -15%<\/p>\n<p>\ud83e\uddd0 Based on 4 years of a tight correlation, <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24BTC&#038;src=ctag&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$BTC<\/a> is arguably being undervalued. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/gIWiJPZpc5\">pic.twitter.com\/gIWiJPZpc5<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Santiment (@santimentfeed) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/santimentfeed\/status\/1988481166630928488?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 12, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>They noted that over the past three months the performance of key assets has diverged markedly. Since 11 August, gold has risen 21% and the S&amp;P 500 by 7%, while bitcoin has fallen 15%.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Final threshold<\/h2>\n<p>Bitcoin Vector said the market\u2019s focus is shifting to the $94,000\u201395,000 range, calling it the next major accumulation zone and \u201ca critical inflection point for digital gold\u2019s structure\u201d.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The market\u2019s focus is turning toward $94K\u2013$95K, the next major accumulation zone and a critical inflection point for Bitcoin\u2019s structure.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s also the annual open, a level that could trigger extreme fear and capitulation; yet for long-term holders, that same panic often marks\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/AC1mCx2HrK\">pic.twitter.com\/AC1mCx2HrK<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Bitcoin Vector (@bitcoinvector) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/bitcoinvector\/status\/1988339803092644025?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 11, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>This level coincides with the year\u2019s open. Reaching it could spark fear and capitulation; for long-term investors, such panic often proves a buying opportunity.<\/p>\n<p>At the time of writing, bitcoin was trading around ~$104,800, down 0.4% over the past 24 hours.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"630\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-aef955bbdf089688-9334830423610372-1024x630.png\" alt=\"BTCUSDT_2025-11-12_12-26-14\" class=\"wp-image-269499\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-aef955bbdf089688-9334830423610372-1024x630.png 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-aef955bbdf089688-9334830423610372-300x184.png 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-aef955bbdf089688-9334830423610372-768x472.png 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-aef955bbdf089688-9334830423610372.png 1428w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">15\u2011minute BTC\/USDT chart on Binance. Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/chart\/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT\">TradingView<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">November rally in doubt<\/h2>\n<p>Bitfinex analysts flagged the risk of a drop in the price of digital gold. For the past two weeks the asset has traded in a tight $106,000\u2013116,000 range.<\/p>\n<p>Long-term holders (LTH) taking profits are weighing on price. According to the report, LTHs are selling about 104,000 BTC a month \u2014 the most since July. Bull phases resumed only after this cohort shifted from selling to accumulating, they said.<\/p>\n<p>Short-term holders (STH) who bought recently are also losing confidence. The <span data-descr=\"unrealized profit or loss of short-term investors\" class=\"old_tooltip\">STH-NUPL<\/span> metric fell to -0.05, indicating small paper losses. If the price does not recover, this group may face forced selling.<\/p>\n<p>The derivatives market also points to uncertainty. Implied volatility in options continues to fall \u2014 traders do not expect sharp price moves in the near term.<\/p>\n<p>Mixed macro signals are adding to the pressure. <span data-descr=\"US Federal Reserve\" class=\"old_tooltip\">\u0424\u0420\u0421<\/span> <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/bitcoin-shows-tepid-reaction-to-feds-rate-cut\">cut interest rates<\/a>, but investors are unsure about further monetary easing by the regulator. This is limiting the inflow of speculative capital.<\/p>\n<p>The probability of a cut at the 10 December meeting has slipped to 63.4%, having earlier approached 90%.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"699\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-8a032e0728f63607-9334876591537673-1024x699.png\" alt=\"\u0421\u043d\u0438\u043c\u043e\u043a \u044d\u043a\u0440\u0430\u043d\u0430 2025-11-12 122344\" class=\"wp-image-269500\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-8a032e0728f63607-9334876591537673-1024x699.png 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-8a032e0728f63607-9334876591537673-300x205.png 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-8a032e0728f63607-9334876591537673-768x524.png 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-8a032e0728f63607-9334876591537673.png 1065w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/markets\/interest-rates\/cme-fedwatch-tool.html\">CME FedWatch<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Bitfinex believes that without new capital from spot buyers or <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-is-a-cryptocurrency-etf\">ETF<\/a> holders, bitcoin will remain range-bound. The primary support zone is $106,000\u2013107,000; a breakdown would open the way to $100,000. For a recovery to start, the price needs to consolidate above $116,000.<\/p>\n<p>Historically, November is a strong month for bitcoin. According to Coinglass, since 2013 the average gain in November has been 42.04%.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"608\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-741c3664dfd950d2-9334894976484899-1024x608.png\" alt=\"\u0421\u043d\u0438\u043c\u043e\u043a \u044d\u043a\u0440\u0430\u043d\u0430 2025-11-12 123127\" class=\"wp-image-269501\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-741c3664dfd950d2-9334894976484899-1024x608.png 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-741c3664dfd950d2-9334894976484899-300x178.png 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-741c3664dfd950d2-9334894976484899-768x456.png 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-741c3664dfd950d2-9334894976484899.png 1311w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.coinglass.com\/today\">Coinglass<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Local bottom<\/h2>\n<p>The on-chain metric net unrealized profit (NUP) has fallen to a level that has historically preceded the formation of a local bottom, analyst CoinCare noted.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The Bitcoin Net Unrealized Profit (NUP) is Signaling a Potential Bottom<\/p>\n<p>\u201cCurrently sitting at 0.476, the metric suggests that selling pressure has significantly eased \u2014 indicating that we may be approaching a short-term market bottom.\u201d \u2013 By CoinCare <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/GOmHgI3gxK\">pic.twitter.com\/GOmHgI3gxK<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/cryptoquant_com\/status\/1988534632199913851?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 12, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>NUP reflects the total unrealized profit of holders whose coins are \u201cin the money\u201d. A high reading signals strong selling pressure.<\/p>\n<p>According to CoinCare, in the current market cycle local lows formed when the metric dipped below 0.5. It now stands at 0.476.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cSelling pressure has eased significantly. This suggests that we may be approaching a short-term market bottom. In the near term, a rebound can be expected,\u201d he concluded.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Harvest time<\/h2>\n<p>Morgan Stanley investment strategist Denny Galindo <a href=\"https:\/\/www.morganstanley.com\/insights\/podcasts\/thoughts-on-the-market\/cryptocurrencies-going-mainstream-mike-cyprys-denny-galindo\">noted<\/a> that historical data point to a four-year bitcoin price cycle: three years of gains and one year of decline.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cWe are currently in the autumn season. Autumn is harvest time. So this is when you want to take your profits,\u201d he said.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Michael Cyprys, head of research for brokers and asset managers at Morgan Stanley, added that institutional investors have begun to view the leading cryptocurrency as a bona fide part of diversified portfolios. Some indeed consider the asset \u201cdigital gold\u201d or a hedge against inflation.<\/p>\n<p>Cyprys stressed that large players adopt cryptocurrencies slowly due to complex internal processes, risk committees and long-term strategies.<\/p>\n<p>However, adoption is accelerating as regulation and ETF infrastructure have lowered barriers to entry. He noted that spot funds based on bitcoin and Ethereum \u201chave brought billions into the industry\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>In November, a Sygnum study <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/investors-anticipate-cryptocurrency-market-rally-by-year-end\">found<\/a> that institutional investors are confident cryptocurrencies will rise by year-end.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin is undervalued, Santiment says, after analysing a break in a four-year correlation with equities.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":90920,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"Santiment argues bitcoin is undervalued after its correlation with stocks broke.","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[18,95,1205,1145,873,1478],"class_list":["post-90919","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitfinex","tag-cryptoquant","tag-market-analysis","tag-morgan-stanley","tag-santiment"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"179","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"Santiment argues bitcoin is undervalued after its correlation with stocks broke.","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/90919","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=90919"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/90919\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":90921,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/90919\/revisions\/90921"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/90920"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=90919"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=90919"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=90919"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}