{"id":90949,"date":"2025-11-12T18:03:42","date_gmt":"2025-11-12T15:03:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=90949"},"modified":"2025-11-12T18:06:15","modified_gmt":"2025-11-12T15:06:15","slug":"qcp-outlines-factors-supporting-bitcoin-into-year-end","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/qcp-outlines-factors-supporting-bitcoin-into-year-end\/","title":{"rendered":"QCP outlines factors supporting bitcoin into year-end"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin\u2019s price responded to headlines about a possible end to the US government shutdown. During the US session it fell, but in Asia it stabilised around ~$104,000, noted analysts at <a href=\"https:\/\/www.qcpgroup.com\/insights\/asia-colour-172\/\">QCP Capital<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The US Senate <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/us\/us-senate-compromise-sets-stage-end-government-shutdown-2025-11-10\/\">approved<\/a> a stopgap budget through 30 January, which should avoid government disruptions over the holidays. The bill now goes to the House of Representatives, after which the president must sign it.<\/p>\n<p>Experts called the move \u201ckicking the can\u201d. It removes immediate risks but does not address structural problems. A new flare-up is possible early next year, QCP believes. <\/p>\n<p>According to Polymarket, the probability that the shutdown ends between 12 and 15 November is 98%.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"493\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-9c98499de15f646e-9352200194210268-1024x493.png\" alt=\"\u0421\u043d\u0438\u043c\u043e\u043a \u044d\u043a\u0440\u0430\u043d\u0430 2025-11-12 172001\" class=\"wp-image-269557\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-9c98499de15f646e-9352200194210268-1024x493.png 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-9c98499de15f646e-9352200194210268-300x145.png 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-9c98499de15f646e-9352200194210268-768x370.png 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-9c98499de15f646e-9352200194210268.png 1181w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/event\/when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545\/will-the-government-shutdown-end-november-12-15\">Polymarket<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>With official statistics suspended by the shutdown, the market is leaning on private indicators. According to QCP, the <span data-descr=\"US National Federation of Independent Business\" class=\"old_tooltip\">NFIB<\/span> small-business activity index showed deteriorating sentiment. Firms report slowing sales and hiring difficulties. That aligns with <span data-descr=\"Automatic Data Processing\u2014an American company providing HR and payroll services\" class=\"old_tooltip\">ADP<\/span> data pointing to a weaker labour market.<\/p>\n<p>In the near term, budget uncertainty, credit volatility and weak economic data will keep weighing on crypto, the analysts forecast. Toward year-end, though, digital gold and other risk assets could find support from a possible rate cut by the <span data-descr=\"US Federal Reserve System\" class=\"old_tooltip\">\u0424\u0420\u0421<\/span> and resilient corporate earnings.<\/p>\n<p>QCP maintains a positive outlook for 2026, expecting monetary and fiscal policy to support economic growth.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Accumulation begins<\/h2>\n<p>Early November saw one of 2025\u2019s largest spikes in bitcoin outflows from Binance. XWIN Research analysts say this points to a shift in investor sentiment and preparation for a new market move.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Massive Bitcoin Outflows from Binance Signal Renewed Accumulation<\/p>\n<p>\u201cOverall, this spike should be viewed as a bullish signal. When BTC supply on exchanges declines, selling pressure diminishes, creating a tighter supply environment.\u201d \u2013 By <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/xwinfinance?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@xwinfinance<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/akYRzXQUqc\">pic.twitter.com\/akYRzXQUqc<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/cryptoquant_com\/status\/1988547539079963016?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 12, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>They noted that large outflows from trading platforms have historically signalled accumulation rather than panic selling. Investors move assets to cold wallets for long-term storage.<\/p>\n<p>The current set-up coincided with the end of a consolidation phase around $103,000. This may indicate that whales and institutions are preparing for the next macroeconomic move.<\/p>\n<p>Some of this activity may have been linked to Binance\u2019s internal wallet restructuring. Big exchanges often redistribute funds\u2014this shows up in the data. However, on-chain analysis indicates that most transactions were user withdrawals rather than technical movements.<\/p>\n<p>Over the same period, activity on <span data-descr=\"over-the-counter trading\" class=\"old_tooltip\">OTC<\/span> platforms increased\u2014another indirect sign of institutional investors executing private deals.<\/p>\n<p>Analysts view the outflow spike as a bullish signal. A declining supply of bitcoin on exchanges reduces selling pressure. Together with inflows of <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-are-stablecoins\">stablecoins<\/a> to major platforms, this suggests stealth accumulation. Historically, such trends have preceded price recoveries.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The $107,000 level<\/h2>\n<p>An analyst going by DaanCrypto noted that on lower timeframes bitcoin is trending higher. For continuation, however, the price needs to break the $107,000 area. In his words, that would be the main condition for a bullish turnaround.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24BTC&#038;src=ctag&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$BTC<\/a> Trending up on the lower timeframe. But needs to break that $107K area. If it can do so, it would turn this into a decent deviation and retake back into the range.<\/p>\n<p>That&#8217;s my main condition for a bullish turnaround.<\/p>\n<p>Stocks almost back to the highs already. We are\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/x7db5PsLGr\">pic.twitter.com\/x7db5PsLGr<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/DaanCrypto\/status\/1988577511270154554?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 12, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>He also pointed to macro factors. Equities are near all-time highs, and liquidity is expected to improve as the <span data-descr=\"US Federal Reserve System\" class=\"old_tooltip\">\u0424\u0420\u0421<\/span> plans to end quantitative tightening and cut rates.<\/p>\n<p>DaanCrypto cited whale selling tied to the four-year cycle as the main headwind, arguing that this pressure has hampered the market in recent weeks.<\/p>\n<p>The trader stressed that current uncertainty stems from conflicting signals: the daily structure remains bearish, while the weekly and monthly ones are still bullish. He advised traders to focus on major support and resistance levels.<\/p>\n<p>Another view comes from the analyst known as CryptoTony. He also expects a rise to $107,400, but sees that zone as \u201cperfect for opening shorts\u201d.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24BTC&#038;src=ctag&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$BTC<\/a> \/ <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24USD&#038;src=ctag&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$USD<\/a> \u2014 Update<\/p>\n<p>A bounce up to $107,400 please. Would be the perfect short zone if we get there <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/BTuMVaWS0V\">pic.twitter.com\/BTuMVaWS0V<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Crypto Tony (@CryptoTony__) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/CryptoTony__\/status\/1988567231815446845?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 12, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>In November, Santiment specialists <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/santiment-says-bitcoin-is-undervalued-versus-gold-and-equities\">analysed<\/a> the break in the four-year correlation between bitcoin\u2019s price and the stock market. They concluded that the coin is undervalued.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin fell on US shutdown headlines, then stabilised in Asia around ~$104,000.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":90950,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"QCP sees bitcoin steady near ~$104,000; shutdown risks linger, year-end supports emerge.","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[18,1145,842,1326,26],"class_list":["post-90949","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-bitcoin","tag-market-analysis","tag-politics","tag-qcp-capital","tag-usa"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"187","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"QCP sees bitcoin steady near ~$104,000; shutdown risks linger, year-end supports emerge.","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/90949","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=90949"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/90949\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":90951,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/90949\/revisions\/90951"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/90950"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=90949"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=90949"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=90949"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}