{"id":91039,"date":"2025-11-14T15:27:30","date_gmt":"2025-11-14T12:27:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=91039"},"modified":"2025-11-14T15:32:48","modified_gmt":"2025-11-14T12:32:48","slug":"analyst-flags-bear-phase-sees-bitcoin-sliding-to-74000","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/analyst-flags-bear-phase-sees-bitcoin-sliding-to-74000\/","title":{"rendered":"Analyst flags bear phase, sees bitcoin sliding to $74,000"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The crypto market has edged toward a bear phase by three key metrics for institutional investors. Analyst Axel Adler Jr. allowed for bitcoin dropping to $74,000.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The most critical question that will concern all investors right now: how deep will the market correction go in this bear phase?<\/p>\n<p>I&#39;ve identified two critical levels:<br \/>Level 1 = $87K <br \/>Level 2 = $74K<\/p>\n<p>Why specifically $87K was discussed last week when I covered the conservative\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/tsKplZdPGe\">pic.twitter.com\/tsKplZdPGe<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Axel \ud83d\udc8e\ud83d\ude4c Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/AxelAdlerJr\/status\/1989234354170495434?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 14, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>&#8220;The main question worrying all investors at this stage is how deep the correction will be. Based on my analysis, I have identified two critical levels: $87,000 and $74,000,&#8221; he said. <\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>He stressed that key indicators that previously acted as support have now turned into resistance. <\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-9bcc57eb1f459d8f-9515818010424415-1024x576.png\" alt=\"image\" class=\"wp-image-269766\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-9bcc57eb1f459d8f-9515818010424415-1024x576.png 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-9bcc57eb1f459d8f-9515818010424415-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-9bcc57eb1f459d8f-9515818010424415-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-9bcc57eb1f459d8f-9515818010424415-1536x864.png 1536w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-9bcc57eb1f459d8f-9515818010424415.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/AxelAdlerJr\/status\/1989240683740418226\">X\/AxelAdlerJr<\/a>. <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Adler Jr. <a href=\"https:\/\/adlerscryptoinsights.substack.com\/p\/bitcoin-two-out-of-three-metrics?r=46gt68&#038;utm_campaign=post&#038;utm_medium=web&#038;triedRedirect=true\">said<\/a> the current price of digital gold is almost 12% below the 200-day moving average\u2014$110,486. By BlackRock and Goldman Sachs standards, that signals a bear trend.<\/p>\n<p>An additional signal is a series of lower local highs and lows on the daily chart since 13 November. <\/p>\n<p>Of particular concern is an imminent moving-average crossover\u2014the &#8220;death cross.&#8221; The spread between the SMA50 ($110,972) and SMA200 ($110,486) has narrowed to $486 (0.44%) and could close in the coming days. That would activate the third bearish metric in institutional models.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>&#8220;Formally, the market phase is still classified as bullish (the price is 20% above the yearly low of $76,276), but two of the three indicators have already flipped bearish, and the third is on the brink of changing signal. If a \u2018death cross\u2019 forms, institutional trading models will unanimously switch to recognizing a bearish trend,&#8221; Adler Jr. wrote. <\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>At the time of writing, bitcoin is trading around ~$96,300, down 6.3% over the past 24 hours. <\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"599\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-abd7930915d45ab1-9515834971952502-1024x599.png\" alt=\"image\" class=\"wp-image-269767\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-abd7930915d45ab1-9515834971952502-1024x599.png 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-abd7930915d45ab1-9515834971952502-300x175.png 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-abd7930915d45ab1-9515834971952502-768x449.png 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-abd7930915d45ab1-9515834971952502-1536x898.png 1536w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-abd7930915d45ab1-9515834971952502.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Hourly chart of BTC\/USDT on Binance. Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/ru.tradingview.com\/chart\/atJ4mYHE\/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT\">TradingView<\/a>. <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju noted that a bear trend is still unconfirmed. He pointed to a cohort of investors who bought digital gold six to 12 months ago. Their average entry price is $94,000.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Those who entered Bitcoin 6 to 12 months ago have a cost basis near 94K.<\/p>\n<p>Personally, I do not think the bear cycle is confirmed unless we lose that level. I would rather wait than jump to conclusions. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/i9a5M0xnMW\">pic.twitter.com\/i9a5M0xnMW<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ki_young_ju\/status\/1989218591137493414?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 14, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>&#8220;Personally, I do not think the bear cycle is confirmed unless we lose that level. I would rather wait than jump to conclusions,&#8221; he said. <\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Why is bitcoin falling, and what would it take to recover? <\/h2>\n<p>The correction in the leading cryptocurrency is tied to pressure from US investors, tax-driven selling by long-term holders and reduced liquidity due to the <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/elephant-versus-donkey-americas-longest-shutdown\">US government shutdown<\/a>. That is the view of analysts at XWIN Research Japan. <\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Bitcoin\u2019s Decline Driven by U.S. Liquidity Stress, LTH Tax-Driven Profit Taking, and Persistent American Selling<\/p>\n<p>\u201cTogether, these factors form a clear narrative: the current correction is driven primarily by the United States.\u201d \u2013 By <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/xwinfinance?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@xwinfinance<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/mIPbwqgM4r\">pic.twitter.com\/mIPbwqgM4r<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/cryptoquant_com\/status\/1989283608264356156?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 14, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>They said the Coinbase premium has been &#8220;deeply negative for weeks,&#8221; pointing to aggressive selling on the American exchange compared with platforms in Asia and Europe. The pattern is recurring: bitcoin recovers during the Asian session but loses ground after US markets open. <\/p>\n<p>At the same time, long-term holders across all age bands\u2014from six months to seven years\u2014are locking in profits. Such synchrony is rare and is presumably tied to US investors\u2019 tax optimisation. <\/p>\n<p>Fidelity has confirmed that many clients are closing positions to crystallise tax liabilities, the experts noted. <\/p>\n<p>The halt in US government operations exacerbated the situation, creating a fiscal deficit and draining billions of dollars from the financial system. Against the backdrop of fading expectations of a December rate cut by the <span data-descr=\"United States Federal Reserve System\" class=\"old_tooltip\">the Fed<\/span>, this has dampened risk appetite. <\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>&#8220;As liquidity returns over the coming weeks, market conditions may stabilise, but near-term pressure continues to be defined primarily by US market dynamics,&#8221; XWIN Research Japan concluded. <\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Analysts at Swissblock also flagged the importance of a liquidity rebound. In their view, the <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/americas-longest-government-shutdown-ends\">end of the shutdown<\/a> has already opened the way for its return and for risk appetite to rebuild across markets. <\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">With the U.S. government shutdown resolved, macro uncertainty is easing, paving the way for liquidity to return and risk appetite to rebuild across markets.<\/p>\n<p>Bitcoin now shows its most negative correlation with U.S. indices this year, an extreme decoupling.<\/p>\n<p>Bitcoin starts to\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/qMioZB7lFx\">pic.twitter.com\/qMioZB7lFx<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Swissblock (@swissblock__) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/swissblock__\/status\/1988970106727411733?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 13, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Glassnode co-founder under the pseudonym Negentropic <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/Negentropic_\/status\/1989235522145775723\">recalled<\/a> that after the US government resumed work in 2019, bitcoin hit a &#8220;bottom&#8221; and recovered over the following 12 days. <\/p>\n<p>Resolving the crisis would release at least $150bn of excess liquidity, providing substantial support for markets. <\/p>\n<p>Swissblock <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/bitcoinvector\/status\/1989056630395400400\">believes<\/a> the crypto sector is now in the final stage of forming a local bottom. They stressed that &#8220;this will take quite some time.&#8221; <\/p>\n<p>A similar view was earlier <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/dragonfly-partner-calls-the-current-correction-minor-and-urges-calm\">expressed<\/a> by specialists at Wintermute and Glassnode. <\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>&#8220;The current situation resembles the period from late August to early September: tensions are rising, but there are no structural disruptions. Spot demand remains resilient, as it has since mid-October. Volatility is high, but the trend remains intact. The more stable the level of risk, the faster a bottom will form,&#8221; Swissblock noted. <\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>They said that, for now, everything depends on digital gold\u2019s ability to close the week above the $97,000\u201398,500 zone. <\/p>\n<p>Earlier, amid the correction, spot bitcoin ETFs <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/spot-bitcoin-etfs-post-870m-in-second-biggest-outflow\">recorded<\/a> the second-largest outflow on record, at $870m. <\/p>\n<p>QCP Capital analysts cited factors supporting the leading cryptocurrency into year-end, including a possible Fed rate cut and resilient corporate earnings.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The crypto market has edged toward a bear phase by three institutional metrics, said analyst Axel Adler Jr.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":91040,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"Analyst warns of bear phase; bitcoin could fall to $74,000.","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[18,1205,1145,1138],"class_list":["post-91039","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-bitcoin","tag-cryptoquant","tag-market-analysis","tag-opinions"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"278","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"Analyst warns of bear phase; bitcoin could fall to $74,000.","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/91039","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=91039"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/91039\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":91041,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/91039\/revisions\/91041"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/91040"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=91039"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=91039"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=91039"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}