{"id":91199,"date":"2025-11-19T17:05:26","date_gmt":"2025-11-19T14:05:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=91199"},"modified":"2025-11-19T17:10:59","modified_gmt":"2025-11-19T14:10:59","slug":"glassnode-pinpoints-threshold-to-halt-the-bear-trend","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/glassnode-pinpoints-threshold-to-halt-the-bear-trend\/","title":{"rendered":"Glassnode pinpoints threshold to halt the bear trend"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Bulls must quickly push bitcoin back to the level at which 75% of coins are in profit\u2014only then, historically, has the trend reversal been arrested, Glassnode analysts said.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24BTC&#038;src=ctag&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$BTC<\/a> has broken below the 0.75 cost-basis quantile, a level that has historically marked bear-market territory. Across cycles, reclaiming and holding above it has been key to restoring bullish structure. Bulls will want to see this level regained.<br \/>\ud83d\udcc9<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/EtwrSOJz63\">https:\/\/t.co\/EtwrSOJz63<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/2dljEU7j1R\">pic.twitter.com\/2dljEU7j1R<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 glassnode (@glassnode) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/glassnode\/status\/1991075110644482258?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 19, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>According to the firm, bitcoin\u2019s price has slipped below the cost-basis 0.75 quantile, which approximates the average entry price of investors. The metric is used as a gauge of market structure:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>above it\u2014most holders are in profit and the trend remains bullish;<\/li>\n<li>below it\u2014loss-making positions dominate, putting the market in bear territory.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Historically, reclaiming and holding above this level has required significant buying and has served as a key signal of trend recovery.<\/p>\n<p>Current price action points to the need for consolidation before any attempted reversal.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Correction nearly complete<\/h2>\n<p>An analyst using the handle Darkfost noted that as of November 19, 6.96 million BTC were at a loss\u2014the largest volume since January 2024.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">\ud83d\udd34 Today, more than 6.96 million BTC accumulated by investors are now sitting at a loss.<\/p>\n<p>\ud83d\udca5 This is the highest level of unrealized loss since January 2024, even though the ongoing correction still hasn\u2019t surpassed the deepest drawdown of this cycle.<\/p>\n<p>This suggests that a large\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Dznx3LKtJ5\">pic.twitter.com\/Dznx3LKtJ5<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Darkfost_Coc\/status\/1991054445442994524?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 19, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>He called <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/bitcoin-falls-below-90000-for-the-first-time-in-seven-months\">the current correction<\/a> \u201cparadoxical\u201d: it has not yet exceeded the deepest drawdown of the cycle. In his view, this points to substantial accumulation near previous highs, which explains panic selling by short-term holders.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cIn a bull trend, such an increase in unrealized losses has historically created strong buying opportunities. It is at such moments that the famous \u2018change of hands\u2019 everyone talks about occurs\u2014when assets move from the weak to the strong,\u201d the analyst explained.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Specialists at XWIN Research Japan <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoquant.com\/insights\/quicktake\/691ce9edb28ac56b45a0657b-Short-Term-Holder-Capitulation-Is-Deepening-%E2%80%94-A-Classic-Late-Stage-Fear-Structur?utm_source=twitter&#038;utm_medium=sns&#038;utm_campaign=quicktake&#038;utm_content=xwin\">pointed<\/a> to the start of \u201cthe most severe phase for short-term holders (STH) in this cycle\u201d. Several key metrics support this view:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>STH-<a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/sopr-finding-bitcoins-highs-and-lows\">SOPR<\/a> has dropped to extremely low levels around 0.97, indicating coins are being spent at a loss\u2014historically a sign of panic selling;<\/li>\n<li>STH-<a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-is-the-mvrv-indicator\">MVRV<\/a> is below 1, marking the lowest level of short-term holder profitability on record;<\/li>\n<li>65,200 BTC were sent to exchanges with losses realized.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cThis behavior aligns with classic capitulation phases: unrealized losses surge, panic selling accelerates, sell pressure becomes unsustainable, and \u2018strong hands\u2019 start absorbing supply,\u201d the experts stressed.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>They say today\u2019s market structure resembles the late stages of a correction rather than its beginning.<\/p>\n<p>Earlier, Standard Chartered\u2019s head of digital-asset research, Geoffrey Kendrick, <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/standard-chartered-bitcoin-correction-has-run-its-course\">said<\/a> the bitcoin sell-off had ended. He expects the price to rise by year-end.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Miners shift to accumulation<\/h2>\n<p>CryptoQuant contributor Crazzyblockk highlighted \u201cstrategic rather than panic behavior\u201d among bitcoin miners.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Market Bleeding, But How About Miners?<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe last seven days show net accumulation of 777 BTC\u2026 This transition from distribution back toward accumulation at relative price lows historically precedes stabilization phases.\u201d \u2013 By <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Crazzyblockk?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@Crazzyblockk<\/a> <\/p>\n<p>Link \u2935\ufe0f<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/USaIfFP56k\">https:\/\/t.co\/USaIfFP56k<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/eKHZP1YxGM\">pic.twitter.com\/eKHZP1YxGM<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/cryptoquant_com\/status\/1991028918116053467?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 19, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>During the rally from October 10th to 27th, miners accumulated an average of 843 BTC per month. However, after <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/trader-predicts-bitcoin-bottom-at-101000\">the price falling below $110,000<\/a> in early November, their strategy shifted\u2014between November 7th and 17th, their net position was -831 BTC.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cThis 1674 BTC swing reflects a tactical adaptation to deteriorating market conditions,\u201d the expert wrote.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Daily flows point to a measured approach: over the past 30 days, miners sold coins on only 11 of 30 days, and total sales (6,048 BTC) were almost matched by accumulation (6,467 BTC).<\/p>\n<p>The largest sale took place on November 6th\u20141,898 BTC at $102,637\u2014when miners could still lock in substantial profits.<\/p>\n<p>Most telling has been the shift to net accumulation over the past seven days: +777 BTC, even with bitcoin trading 12.6% below October levels. The 30-day net position turned positive again, at +419 BTC as of November 17th.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cThe transition from distribution to accumulation at relative price lows has historically preceded stabilization phases. [\u2026] It seems miners have completed balance adjustments and no longer exert negative pressure on the price of the first cryptocurrency, potentially signaling a turning point in supply dynamics,\u201d Crazzyblockk concluded.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Earlier, CoinDesk analyst Omkar Godbole <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/bitcoin-options-signal-bearish-market-shift\">said<\/a> that aggressively bullish bets in the crypto-options market have given way to \u201cdecidedly bearish\u201d positioning.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bulls must quickly push bitcoin back to the level at which 75% of coins are in profit\u2014historically the only condition that has halted a bearish reversal.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":26216,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"Glassnode says reclaiming the 0.75 cost-basis quantile is key to halting bitcoin's bear trend.","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[18,1205,1273,1268,1138],"class_list":["post-91199","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-bitcoin","tag-cryptoquant","tag-glassnode","tag-on-chain-analysis","tag-opinions"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"168","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"Glassnode says reclaiming the 0.75 cost-basis quantile is key to halting bitcoin's bear trend.","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/91199","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=91199"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/91199\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":91200,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/91199\/revisions\/91200"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/26216"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=91199"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=91199"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=91199"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}